IS RED a "Black Swan"

[Michael McLaughlin]

I have started into Economic / Events book "The Black Swan" Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

I found this summary to really remind me of RED:

Taleb delivers a groundbreaking look at the role played by the unexpected in life and history, and a fascinating examination of why we know less than we think we do--and what to do about it.

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”




HMMMMM...

It seems some have imagined the impossible.

 

[Anthony Rinaldi]

In short, yes.

 

[Sally Shamas]

Thanks for the post , the name sounded Lebanese and apparently he is . thats the first time i hear about him though unfortunately . I will definitely get the book .
RED is probably a Black Swan...

 

[Jannard]

We are a Red Swan. We eat Black Swans for lunch...

Sorry... had to do it.

Actually, Taleb makes an interesting point... but I'd have a hard time saying RED is in the same league with the others. We'd be happy with Baby Red Duck.

Jim

 

[Martin Weiss]

BRD

BRD

BRD

 

[Pawel Achtel]

...We'd be happy with Baby Red Duck.

Not sure about that. If you keep your momentum and focus behind some of the key products from acquisition to delivery, there is no reason for the red duckling not to swallow all of the black swans for lunch. You have a vision and dedication and that's very important. RED is nimble, ambitious, but also hard working and focused. Most of your competitors have bureaucracy instead.

 

[Thomas Wright]

The 5D would be a skanky london pigeon with club feet

 

[Pawel Achtel]

The Baby Red Duck

The Baby Red Duck

BRD

yeah, right! wait till it grows up a bit....

 

[Larry McKee]

I've always thought of RED as a Black Swan, but never thought about posting about it here. Glad Michael brought it up.

 

[David M]

I have started into Economic / Events book
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

No THIS is a black swan :coolgleamA:\

I'm not sure where he gets that interpretation from.

The usual usage of the term "Black Swan" is as an illustration of the Scientific Method, basically:
Two billion white swans cannot prove the assertion: "All swans are white".
However, a SINGLE black swan is all that is required to DISprove the assertion that all swans are white.

According to the site I took the picture from, Black swans are native to Australia, but have been successfully introduced in many parts of the world. So I don't really see why you would use it to describe a highly improbable event. The old European explorers would have been familiar with white swans, so I don't see why the same bird with black feathers would be such a stretch.

Say Jarred, any chance of a "Pedant" emoticon? :cheers2:

 

[D Fuller]

Seriously, though, I have to say no. The Red Camera is not a Black Swan. It is the completely logical evolution of digital camera technology in the age of the democratization of movie making. But Jim Jannard's passion, business acumen, and resources have made it a logical evolution with a supercharger. Then there's the pit crew he's assembled.