Is 3D Already Dying?

[Tim Morten]

http://gizmodo.com/5592956/is-3d-already-dying

Interesting data... I have to admit that I'm a 3D skeptic. As a consumer, I have no interest in having 3D playback at home. I find it more of a gimmick than actually providing heightened experience. It makes my wife seriously nauseous.

It's an engaging technical challenge to shoot/post 3D, and there's no arguing Avatar's box office, so I understand the interest among shooters. Likewise, I understand why cinemas that have been losing customers for years are excited. I understand why consumer electronics companies who want to sell you HDTV's, BluRay players, and AV receivers all over again are excited. I understand why studios who want to sell you marked-up content are excited.

I'm just not sure that consumers are genuinely excited. After the Avatar after-glow has worn off, I suspect 3D will go back to being a curiosity rather than mainstream. I'm sure 3D isn't going away entirely, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the downward revenue trend continue...

If display technology progresses to the point where glasses are unnecessary, and headaches/nausea aren't pervasive, maybe it will be a different story. For now, I would be MUCH more excited about 4k displays at home than about 3D. Just my .02 ...

- Tim

 

[Tom.Wong]

I think post production artificial 3d work needs to be stabbed in the kidneys and forever be done away with.

And I think the key to 3d is if you can offer a viewing experience that will make the 2d version pale in comparison. Pixar like movies do some great gags, but it doesn't effect how you experience the film IMHO, avatar was meant to be experienced in 3d, and was designed and carefully crafted for that. the 2d version is pretty boring...

It will be around, but it won't be the sure fire way of making money anymore, and that's a very good thing. The over saturation of 3d to try to make money will decline, and film makers as a whole will get back to the craft, and use 3d artistically.

 

[Joey R.]

If our own rig sales are any indication...the answer is no.

That being said, the chart isn't truly representative of 3D features and I would guess was picked to prove the writer's point. Avatar is the only film shot in native 3D. the rest are animations coupled with one utter mess of a 2D-3D conversion without even talking about the quality of the feature itself.

 

[Mark L. Pederson]

Totally stupid chart.

 

[Bruce Allen]

Facts are:
- a ton of theatres are now 3D-capable.
- more and more TVs each year will be 3D-capable.

Even if 3D movies "die" and we go back to 99% 2D movies (which I doubt) - there is nothing to stop another Avatar or movie that does 3D properly from being released in 3D without too much extra cost and differentiating itself all over again.

Quite frankly, I'd almost prefer it if there were less 3D films - I'll be making 3D stuff since I love it - and if there are no other 3D films, it'll make my stuff more unique

Bruce Allen
www.boacinema.com

 

[Roberto Lequeux]

More data! Seems they picked a few movies instead of using all the data. 5 random movies is not useful. At least the author doesn't try to hide his bias.

 

[Tom.Wong]

It's more than obvious 3d is here to stay, I just think it's been getting a bad name because of bad films "associated with 3d" and not to mention post production artificially generated 3d that makes a bad movie that much harder to watch. 3d or not, you still need to have a good movie for it to be successful. In the case of Despicable Me, it maybe just be the case that families night not really want to spend extra money on their kids like that, 2-3 kids, the tickets add up... A few isolated examples don't equate to a accurate statistic. It's like interviewing 10 people to see how much of the country's population are lefty's or righty's...

 

[Brian Petrie]

If display technology progresses to the point where glasses are unnecessary, and headaches/nausea aren't pervasive, maybe it will be a different story. For now, I would be MUCH more excited about 4k displays at home than about 3D. Just my .02 ...

- Tim

I'd also prefer 4k over 3D but I don't see that happening quite as quickly. Honestly, i think that 3D will be available on most future TV's. Eventually becoming just another feature on all TV's; which some people will take advantage of and some won't ever use the 3D option just how a decade ago High Definition was only available on a few models.
While I don't see it being quite the money maker it has been, I also don't see it going away anytime soon especially because the technology to create and view it are becoming increasingly more affordable. Just my thoughts anyways...

 

[Stephen Matthews]

I think post production artificial 3d work needs to be stabbed in the kidneys and forever be done away with.

And I think the key to 3d is if you can offer a viewing experience that will make the 2d version pale in comparison. Pixar like movies do some great gags, but it doesn't effect how you experience the film IMHO, avatar was meant to be experienced in 3d, and was designed and carefully crafted for that. the 2d version is pretty boring...

It will be around, but it won't be the sure fire way of making money anymore, and that's a very good thing. The over saturation of 3d to try to make money will decline, and film makers as a whole will get back to the craft, and use 3d artistically.

agree with you about the post artificial 3d, but I have the exact opposite opinion on Avatar. I thought the 3d version was very distracting and took away from the story, and restricted wondering eye's(which the expansive landscapes of this movie ask for). I much preferred the 2d version as to me the 3d seemed the gimmick in this(though this is just my opinion). I also prefer the true gimmick 3d of things popping out of the screen at you in children's movies, at this point it seems the best way to utilize the technology. Now I would like it to be used to better immerse us into the worlds we are visiting when we watch films, but unfortunately the technology is just not there yet and there are still too many restrictions that remove you from the experience and remind you you are watching a movie. I can understand some people seeing this as a huge breakthrough in comparison to older 3d technology but unfortunately it still has a long way to go.

3d will never die it just gets championed every time we have a new breakthrough claiming it's now perfect 3d and eventually the fad dies down as people realize it's not as good as it was advertised, it fades for a bit until the next breakthrough and overreaction and the cycle begins again.

have a good one.

 

[Hrvoje Simic]

Chart is showing nothing. Shallow article.

If display technology progresses to the point where glasses are unnecessary, and headaches/nausea aren't pervasive, maybe it will be a different story.

- Tim

Headaches and nausea will disappear (for the most) when filmmakers learn to adequately adapt storytelling to the new medium. Right now it's in kindergarten phase.

 

[Elsie N]

Viewing a 2D movie is almost god-like... that is, you metaphorically look down on those poor bastards being shot or exploded or whatever. I don't want to be in the middle of something like that. I suppose the porn industry will benefit.

 

[Patrick Tresch]

Jean-Luc Godard plans to shoot in 3D. This surely doesn't mean 3D has a great future but there is real interest for a lot of directors.

 

[Mickey Conway]

What impact will 3D have on home entertainment? Tech companies such as NVIDIA have already started producing and distributing video cards and monitors which support 3D gaming. Blu Ray discs have more than enough capacity to hold all the data, and 3D LCD televisions are already available to those who have recently won the lottery. But will it be the same at home? Is the “event” element a major part of enjoying the experience? Will watching on a home set up take away the impact of 3D viewing? It’ll be a long time before the technology is mainstream enough to become affordable, and only then will 3D’s staying power be tested.
MC

 

[Jaime Vallés]

Well, I find 3D to be cool yet sort of distracting for the first 5 minutes of the film, and then I forget I'm watching it in 3D and just enjoy the movie.

Of course, if I forget I'm watching it in 3D after 5 minutes, what's the point of watching it in 3D at all? Might as well save me the extra $5 bucks and become absorbed in the 2D movie from the get-go.

 

[jonnycom]

As 3d bluray and specifically PORN have not started shipping yet I think it's safe to say it has not even started. You have to remember that Avatar was shot almost 5 years ago with 10 year old tech....... I don't think many people have seen perfect 3d yet.

 

[P Andersson]

Just got a gorgeous Samsung 3D TV as a perk from a job. LOVE IT. Even though the only movie I watched so far is Monsters vs Aliens as that came in the package. I keep thinking it would be amazing if Blade Runner or Stalker or 8 1/2 had been done in 3D so I could now watch them again in a new way.

Doubtless it is a fad, but it is a fad that is here to stay.

 

[Jim Hoffman]

I think video gaming and 3d computer monitors will also push this forward.

 

[C. Jagan Mohan]

Not all subjects are fit for 3D. In any story telling if there is a benefit of 3d dimension than that 3D movie will be successful at bo. 3D is just at infancy, the graph at this stage doesn't make any sense.

 

[Lucas Wilson]

Let me make it clear I'm not trying to shoot the messenger here. : )

http://gizmodo.com/5592956/is-3d-already-dying

Thanks for posting this. The only thing I can think of is the old quote of "lies, damned lies, and statistics."

I'm just not sure that consumers are genuinely excited. After the Avatar after-glow has worn off, I suspect 3D will go back to being a curiosity rather than mainstream. I'm sure 3D isn't going away entirely, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the downward revenue trend continue...

I'm in Beijing this week doing a lot of work that involves stereoscopy. At least here, there is nothing but upward momentum. And it has significant government backing, which in China means everything.

Best,

Lucas

Lucas Wilson
------------
ASSIMILATE, inc.
LA, CA, USA

 

[Milan Spasic]

Jean-Luc Godard plans to shoot in 3D. This surely doesn't mean 3D has a great future but there is real interest for a lot of directors.

Knowing Godard he will find the way to poke fun at the 3D craze.
At least I hope so.

I'm sure that 3D will keep the Hollywood fans captive for a few years.
But I also know that any serious filmgoer will refuse to wear a contraption in order to view a movie. If someone finds a way to make the 3D experience more organic and have 3D enhance the story instead of being a story in itself — then maybe it stands a chance of lasting. For now it's just a gimmick.

Just my 2 dinars.