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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Hard Drive Supply Desimated

Steve, the problem is that in the modern world, hard drives *are* exactly the same as gasoline since both have become a commodites. The entire world depends on hard drives and we wouldn't be able to communicate via this forum (or by email, Facebook or twitter) if it weren't for these relatively fragile items. Being a commodity, their prices are based on supply and demand and if Newegg can get $250 for a $108 drive, they will do so.

Hard drive price graph

I certainly am not saying this is a good thing, but such is the way of 'market capitalism': to charge what "the Market" will bear...

Just my 2¢CDN....
 

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Distributors are getting in on the pricing now... :(
 
Jeff Kilgroe said:
Distributors are getting in on the pricing now... :(
Click to expand...

Yeah, the estimates I saw were 20-30% drop in units for most manufactures, and over 50% for WD. ouch

Buy what you can now, it looks like they will be gold for the next while. :(

At least if your buying drives from Apple, it won't hurt so much any more (and might be cheaper in the future if they prepaid for huge quantities like they do for flash).
 
Jean Déraps said:
Steve, the problem is that in the modern world, hard drives *are* exactly the same as gasoline since both have become a commodites. The entire world depends on hard drives and we wouldn't be able to communicate via this forum (or by email, Facebook or twitter) if it weren't for these relatively fragile items. Being a commodity, their prices are based on supply and demand and if Newegg can get $250 for a $108 drive, they will do so.

Hard drive price graph

I certainly am not saying this is a good thing, but such is the way of 'market capitalism': to charge what "the Market" will bear...

Just my 2¢CDN....
Click to expand...
I was talking about the average person, not guys like us or in other industries that need them in larger quantities. Most of my friends who have computers, even serious gaming computers don't come close to buying the amount of hard drives I do, and I'm small potatoes. So they'll put off buying drives unless one of theirs goes down. So unlike gasoline which they have to put in their cars every week, they can manage their hard drive purchases over time and when the prices are right. Sure, if their hard drive goes down they may have to pay a steeper price right now, but it might just be a one time hit for them. That's the comparison I was trying to make. For guys like us, buying hard drives is almost like buying gasoline. In fact, I'd say I was a bit addicted to buying them at one point. Now I'm trying to be more efficient with drive space.
 
noahvolek said:
Yeah, the estimates I saw were 20-30% drop in units for most manufactures, and over 50% for WD. ouch
Click to expand...

And yet the manufacturers are insisting there is no shortage. The distribution channels are full of adequate quantities and new shipments are still rolling out. Yes, the unfortunate events / flooding have taken their toll, but these manufacturers have multiple facilities making hard drives, many of which are not even in the affected areas.

Was looking at buying a whole palette of 2TB WD drives, possibly RE4 models since that's what I need mostly for my RAIDs and datacenter usage. Price has jumped up 15% since monday... Talked with my sales rep and he's seeing what he can do for me, but the fact is people are panicky and prices are going screwy. Nevermind there is no shortage on these 2TB units. They're not made within 3000 miles of the flooded region... In fact, they're not even manufactured on the same continent. But I digress...

I'm dead serious on the palette purchase. Probably going to be Western Digital (99% certain of it) and we'll have to pick one of three models. My top three picks at the moment are all BLACK-X 6Gbps 64MB cache models -- 1TB RE4, 2TB or 2TB RE4. For those unfamiliar, the RE4 models are the ones tuned for more intensive database and RAID applications and they have a 5 year warranty.

My personal preference would be the 2TB RE4, I'm trying to lock down a price, but these guys are expensive normally anyway. I'll post more details here and if I can lock down a price. I got a price quote monday morning and then one yesterday afternoon and there was a 15% jump. These guys are giving quotes that expire within a matter of hours -- long enough to cover a bank transfer to pay for them.
 
Tim Whitcomb said:
I bought my 8TB EVO 2K over a year and a 1/2 ago for LESS $ than this! like $2K less- ugh. I was just going to upgrade it to 16TB - NOT anytime soon now
Click to expand...

Yeah for us, there was no question that we need the 24TB Evo 2k, plus a load of the smaller Portable ones, we are really just lucky that Ron could assist us,
as some people out there are really crazy in Premiums, so thanks to honest people like Ron at Maxx Digital, we only paid a very small premium compared to every one else
my guys contacted, of course I went strait to Ron, and we'll never buy anything from any one else buy him if He has what OI need... ;)
 
For anyone still following the hard drive pricing fiasco, it seems the word is out that no shortage exists. Pricing is starting to normalize. Newegg had Samsung Spinpoint F3 1TB units for $129 this morning, but they're back up to $149 now, probably because a bunch of people started buying. Their all-time low price several weeks back before the panic set in was $97, so we're headed the right direction. Actually we're not looking too far off normal for this time of year... HDD prices tend to spike whenever Intel starts shipping new CPUs and all the gamers start building new rigs and at the end of the year. Both of which happen to be right now...
 
Jeff Kilgroe said:
For anyone still following the hard drive pricing fiasco, it seems the word is out that no shortage exists. Pricing is starting to normalize. Newegg had Samsung Spinpoint F3 1TB units for $129 this morning, but they're back up to $149 now, probably because a bunch of people started buying. Their all-time low price several weeks back before the panic set in was $97, so we're headed the right direction. Actually we're not looking too far off normal for this time of year... HDD prices tend to spike whenever Intel starts shipping new CPUs and all the gamers start building new rigs and at the end of the year. Both of which happen to be right now...
Click to expand...

Yeah. I laughed at the local retailer who was gouging on 2TB drives, claiming flooding etc. External drives were about half the price these guys were charging. I am hopping that around February things will be better.
 
Jeff Kilgroe said:
For anyone still following the hard drive pricing fiasco, it seems the word is out that no shortage exists. Pricing is starting to normalize. Newegg had Samsung Spinpoint F3 1TB units for $129 this morning, but they're back up to $149 now, probably because a bunch of people started buying. Their all-time low price several weeks back before the panic set in was $97, so we're headed the right direction. Actually we're not looking too far off normal for this time of year... HDD prices tend to spike whenever Intel starts shipping new CPUs and all the gamers start building new rigs and at the end of the year. Both of which happen to be right now...
Click to expand...

i'm sure the holidays won't help either as this month is prime time for people to build new rigs as everything goes on sale. what a freakin scam, I've seen those same samsung drives as low as 65 dollars! this was just a few months ago. I have a whole bunch of raids I need to build and I'm itching for black caviar 2 tb's. I really hope the prices normalize by the new year.
 
Tom.Wong said:
i'm sure the holidays won't help either as this month is prime time for people to build new rigs as everything goes on sale. what a freakin scam, I've seen those same samsung drives as low as 65 dollars! this was just a few months ago. I have a whole bunch of raids I need to build and I'm itching for black caviar 2 tb's. I really hope the prices normalize by the new year.
Click to expand...
Me too. Was getting spoiled by those low prices, wish I bought in bulk when they were so low.
 
Paul Ellington said:
Happy I ordered my Thunderbolt Raid 12TB Promise Pegasus 2 months ago for $1700.
Click to expand...

Me too.

I made an error in my post above when I mentioned the $97 as the all time low for the SpinPoint F3. I was thinking of the WD Black-X 64MB cache 1TB model... They're back under $180 -- down from $250 last week. The Seagate Barracuda equivalent is under $150 again. Yeah, holiday prices are going to keep things messed up for a bit. And people are still buying drives at these prices building new systems. Hopefully it normalizes in January/February.

HDD prices are starting to head the right direction. But it's still insane. Was in Best Buy <shudder> the other night and they had Seagate external USB/eSATA 1TB 7200rpm drives for under $70 after rebates. If I needed drives, I could just buy a few of those and yank them out of the enclosures. This whole thing is just stupid.

On the bright side of things, other components keep getting cheaper.
 
Anyone have any more info on the overall situation and if it is still coming back to normal?
 
AJ Aguirre said:
Anyone have any more info on the overall situation and if it is still coming back to normal?
Click to expand...

Things are looking to be back to pre-flood status in the next six months according to articles floating around but this could easily (and it likely will) happen again because of the manufacturing consolidations in the flooded areas.
 
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