Guesstimate on # Taking Stage III?

[Scott Miller]

So, completely unofficial and probably silly topic....

What percentage or number of Red One owners do you think have or will opt into the stage III deal?

I think somewhere around 10% - 15% will opt in. Say around 1000 Epic-X Stage III will be spoken for. This is just based on my guess of how many are in rental fleets, how many people who own a R1 and can afford/justify (I am justifying, not affording my deposit )

Your guess?

 

[Scott Miller]

Wow, 50%, or so, is the leading guess. I am surprised. If true, softens the rental market pretty quick.

 

[Damien Molineaux]

Wow, 50%, or so, is the leading guess. I am surprised. If true, softens the rental market pretty quick.

Are the people voting for what their choice is, or for what they think others will choose? If the latter, and I think that's what people are voting, because the question asked is not what option are you choosing, then I bet the results are off. I think a lot more people will go, or wanmt to go stage 2, as it presents a number of advantages, just have a look at the number of people trying to sell used executed Red Ones. It's a good time to buy a Red One, although I think they will drop in price event more so as time goes by.

Cheers,
Damien

 

[Scott Miller]

To be clear (or at least try)..

Just what is your opinion on the percentage that will opt into Stage III. Not, Are you opting in, but your guess as to how many will.

Sorry, a little tired and perhaps not clear.

 

[Jim Retar]

I'd say it is pretty high.... the deal is amazing and it means you don't have to get bogged down with the hassle of selling your R1 and transferring ownership (I have heard of a few R1s being sold for $9k... so very little difference between the two stages, other than when you will get your Epic delivered).

I'd speculate, from people I have talked to and viewing the marketplace, that 25% are stage 2, 20% are happy with there R1 setup (practically, or financially can't move up)... so around 55% stage 3.

btw - i'd love to know what's happening to all those stage three R1s... I hope they somehow get recycled into other cams or sold on, hate to think of them going unused.

 

[David Collard]

Hey, would it not make sense to include in the poll:
(1) Number of people just sticking with Red One
(2) Number of people just upgrading to MX
(3) Number of people considering switching to Scarlet
(4) Number of people getting out of Red for whatever reason

Get my drift?
Not trying to be disrespectful in any way, just think that would be a more interesting poll for all concerned.

 

[Scott Miller]

David,

Probably would be a more definitive/useful poll Do you want to start one or me ( with full credit to you ) I assume you can't edit a poll-in-process.

 

[Guidofilippi]

What percentage or number of Red One owners do you think have or will opt into the stage III deal?

I think somewhere around 10% - 15% will opt in. Say around 1000 Epic-X Stage III will be spoken for.
Your guess?

Really hard to answer... I think the spread of R1 owners is unparalleled... from big rental houses to the kid that had just started attending a cinema school and allured by the "deceiving" (sorry about that...) $17,500 asked daddy for a loan...
My guess is that most solidly based R1s will go Stage II, either convinced or pushed by "market realities" (my case) like wait times for S-III, etc. Some others will just wait for SIII, some "multiple owners" may split between SII and SIII, and some of the kids (who already were having trouble setting a reasonable and useful gear package) will sell the R1 and go "smaller" for a Betacam, EX3 or similar.
Maybe 70% SII, 15% SIII, 15% quitting or just keeping R1 for some more time? Or 60-25-15? Or... (don´t think RED will tell us about this for a long time, maybe at the end of SIII deliveries)
Guido