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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Competition lethargy?

E

Elio Roma

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Is competition sleeping? or are they crazy?

There are three manufacturers that have the biggest slice of the cake on the market, and the three of them had a golden age with Mini DV that brought them hundreds of million dollars.

Canon had a golden age with XL1/2, Sony the master of camcorders monopoly sold hundreds of thousands of PD150 and Z1, Panasonic had brought indie filmmaking to another level with DVX100 and HVX200.

Now they all produce DSRL with big chips that sell from 700$ !?!, how difficult could it be for them to build an EX4 or HVX300 or a XL S35? and then sell it for 7000$ or less ? are they taking the piss of us?

Sony has already started making chips bigger...
I think they are not sleeping, and I wouldn't mind to have a choice for a Panasonic camera with s35 chip or 2/3.

Maybe wrong, but how many customers will they loose if they don't wake up?

And how many will Red loose if they don't put a camera on the market ASAP?
 
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I'm sure they're busy.

They just don't share in Jannards community based development process/genius.

Those companies must adhere to their SOP. They've got to coordinate efforts between development, marketing, manufacturing, support.... all those departments have procedures and policies in place. A company of that size has real difficulty moving with the agility that a relatively small startup like RED can muster.

As RED has grown, we've seen a readjustment and paring back of it's extremely open communication policy. Ideas are shared, but a little further down the line. On the other hand, we've seen more RED-like behavior from other companies like ARRI. (Still small enough to cut thru the corporate system)
 
Jim is doing a lot of things that go very much against the grain of most company's profit models.

It's not just about coming out with a better camera. Jim is creating a system where UPGRADES can move much faster. It's going to take quite a while to get Scarlet and Epic out there, but once they are, and once they have had the bugs shaken out of them (in 2010 if we're lucky). He will have entrenched a system that allows for VERY fast changes and upgrades.

Sensor development is the fastest and most important part of the camera. The processing speed is right behind that, giving you more frames per second, and other things. Now Jim/RED can develop these things WITHOUT having to redesign the entire damn camera.

I would think the real problem for the other companies is not the equipment. RED is still small and Canon and the other guys can out R&D them pretty well in terms of sheer bandwidth, but fighting RED's BUSINESS MODEL... That's a much tougher nut to crack.

Jay
 
First of all, let's all admit there continues to be a huge consumer market for small camcorders with tiny sensors, with no particular interest by the average consumer in dealing with larger sensors in more expensive cameras with more focusing issues. Sony, Panasonic, and Canon are doing just fine in making new products for that market.

What you're talking about is that much smaller market of independent filmmakers and small-budget professionals that need smaller, cheaper pro cameras and can't afford a $50,000+ video camera.

Sony has a real success with the EX1/EX3; it's become ubiquitous on many video shoots as a B-camera, or the main camera, I've even seen lots of them in film schools. Because Sony, when they made it, took it seriously, moved up to 1/2" sensors from 1/3" sensors, put pro functions in it, and priced it below $10,000.

Canon is a bit stuck in a rut, their more expensive prosumer HD cameras are not selling well anymore and seem stuck in a pre-2005 mindset (interlaced-scan, no true 24P, etc.) while their DSLR's that shoot HD video have been the new cutting-edge in that arena. But Canon has also been resistant to enter the pro video world of Sony, JVC, and Panasonic -- prosumer has always been as deep as they wanted to go. But with their DSLR's doing well, and their consumer cameras, their prosumer line is in the doldrums. I'm curious as to what their plans are to get out of it. Just place their bets that DSLR's are the prosumer video camera of the future?

Panasonic... I don't quite get those guys. On the one hand, they have been the most forward-thinking in using solid-state recording, advanced compression schemes, etc. On the other hand, they continue to make cameras with smaller, lower-rez sensors that are barely above PAL resolution and then uprez them to 720P and 1080i. This thinking is the reason why the Sony EX1/EX3 has leapt ahead as the high-end prosumer model of choice, because it doesn't feel like it compromised on the sensors. On the other hand, Panasonic always seem to have something up their sleeves in the R&D department, so who knows.

Obviously all these companies are going to be looking at the Scarlet with great interest, to see what the market will be for that camera. One reaction may be to simply concede that market share to RED -- Canon, for example, may just drop the prosumer video camera line and stick to consumer video and DSLR's that shoot video.
 
Excellent summary, David.

Don't expect much movement out of the competition until the results are in on Red's Scarlet experiment. Nobody seems to be able to chart a development course because there's too many mixed signals in the market. Red knows its own market well. I suspect the others haven't decided where the mass market is headed. They have to account for cameras like the flip and trends like iphones and ipods with video capability.

While we may see our own needs here on Red User very clearly, the people at Canon, Sony and Panasonic have to convince their management on where to put their precious development dollars and talent focus. There is much uncertainty right now on just how ready the mass market is for 24P HD. Its not about preference, its about nobody has any money to spend on a new camera. People are worried about their futures right now in the mass market, even the prosumer market has seen a contraction in business over the last year plus.

Its like somebody hit "pause" on buying stuff. The big manufacturers saw this early, they're the canary in the coal mine when it comes to contracting credit. They're in no hurry to spend their way down an R&D trail when they have no idea where it will lead them. Its "wait and see"-- nobody wants to be "first" with anything new. While we'd all like to see a viable 24fps+ 1080p 35mm sensor DSLR from Canon or Nikon that's affordable-- there simply aren't any sales to justify that at this time. Retailers and resellers are carrying a lot of similar inventory currently. Such purchases are usually made on credit cards and that system is not healthy right now.
 
The Innovator's Dilemma is operating here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innovator's_dilemma
Disruptive technologies or innovations are innovations that upset the existing “order of things” in a particular industry. The usual process is a lower-end innovation that appeals to customers who are not served by the current market. With time, because the capacity/performance of the innovation exceeds the market’s needs, the innovation comes to displace the market incumbents.

Incumbents generally don’t react to disruptive innovations until it’s too late, because they don’t represent an interesting market, being low end and often low cost. One successful strategy might be to hive off a separate “company within a company” that is responsible for the firm’s response to the disruptive technology. A smaller, more nimble organization is better placed to work in the initially smaller and less lucrative market that the innovation is creating.​
Sound familiar?
 
Well, for a start, none of these Co's is run by one man
with a passion for what is needed- as opposed to what is
needed to sell. We all know that Jim is a shrewd businessman,
but if business had been his only driving force we'd be looking
at a very different RED future. As it stands, I find it difficult to
picture the future of digital acquisition without Jim and Co.
Without going into my turbulent personal life and the reasons I
don't yet own a RED, I consider Jim and Co. to be worth investing in.
"Investment" is not a word that springs to mind when I buy from any other Co..
RED has to be one of the most exemplary models of free enterprise,
one that nicely balances Socialist and Capitalist values; Capitalism with
a social conscience- not a lot of that going around these days.
So before you go dropping money on the next flavor, consider the
long term ramifications to your industry, even if it means making a
little sacrifice, I know I will.
 
I would bet my house that sony, canon, panasonic and possibly even nikon will have a large sensor camera, broadcast/screen quality image with pro video features in place by the time Scarlet s35 is openly available.

I don't think any will go higher than 1080/60p though, but will probably be ready to shoot straight from the box.
 
David Mullen ASC said:
Canon, for example, may just drop the prosumer video camera line and stick to consumer video and DSLR's that shoot video.
Click to expand...

It seems to me that Canon has the technology and resources to combine their excellent lenses and sensors and bring to market a much better prosumer video camera than they currently offer.

In my opinion if Canon offered a video camera that used an improved sensor design similar to the 5DMkII, and adapted their "L" series still lenses for this purpose, they could generate a lot of sales.

Canon could take advantage of the momentum that is building in the market caused by the grass roots excitement over their DSLR's perceived low cost, high quality video capability, and the Canon DSLR's have already helped turn a few of their customers into indy filmmaker rock stars. What up and coming filmmaker wouldn't want to be the next indy rock star?

Not only would this recover market share in the prosumer segment but could be used to great advantage in creating additional brand value which can only be good for their consumer market.

Remember the old adage "race on Sunday, sell on Monday"?

Of course, Canon would have to address the very real problems created by line skipping, slow sensor readout rates, and the baked in artifacts created by the H264 codec, or risk not being taken seriously by the prosumer and professional market.


Having said this, it is clear that RED is already leading the way in professional and yet affordable Digital Cinema camera technology. The RED one is available right now, and with Scarlet and Epic on the horizon, yeah, maybe Canon should stick with DSLR's. :biggrinjester:
 
I have an odd theory about one of the reasons why others are not making cameras along the lines of RED... cooling fans.

It seems pretty clear that to have a large sensor reading out at high framerates without line-skipping, generating a ton of data to be compressed and recorded, as well as processed for display, creates an awful lot of heat. The designs for EPIC and Scarlet show that hasn't changed - they still need cooling systems with fans.

Have you ever seen a prosumer camera with a fan? I have this suspicion that before RED came along, and even now after they've proven it can be accepted, the other manufacturers shy away from building something that generates enough heat to warrant a fan, because they are worried about it, or believe their customers will be.

No professional has trouble accepting a fan in a RED ONE or Sony F35 (the filter for which needs to be vacuumed every so often) but can you imagine a DSLR that has a fan and gets hot to the touch, and trying to convince all the trolls on still photography forums that it won't mean they have to compromise something over what they are used to?
 
David Mullen ASC said:
Panasonic... I don't quite get those guys. On the one hand, they have been the most forward-thinking in using solid-state recording, advanced compression schemes, etc. On the other hand, they continue to make cameras with smaller, lower-rez sensors that are barely above PAL resolution and then uprez them to 720P and 1080i. This thinking is the reason why the Sony EX1/EX3 has leapt ahead as the high-end prosumer model of choice, because it doesn't feel like it compromised on the sensors. On the other hand, Panasonic always seem to have something up their sleeves in the R&D department, so who knows.

Obviously all these companies are going to be looking at the Scarlet with great interest, to see what the market will be for that camera. One reaction may be to simply concede that market share to RED -- Canon, for example, may just drop the prosumer video camera line and stick to consumer video and DSLR's that shoot video.
Click to expand...

Remember Panasonic is a division of Mitsubishi, which is the biggest player in the known tech universe. So they have inertia, patience, enough wisdom to have obtained their position at the top of the heap, and probably the biggest R&D department of all. They wait for the market to show a direction then launch the best they've got. Latest salvo: GH1. For some insights from a one-time Panasonic insider, look at Michael Reichmann's comments at the end of his GH1 review: http://www.luminous-landscape.com/reviews/cameras/gh1.shtml

Since I'm a future Scarlet fixed user, I'll add a few musings from that point of view. Will Scarlet open up markets (plural - I think the fixed and the cinema will develop two very different markets with overlap - how much overlap remains to be seen) that the biggies are ready to compete in? Or will they compete in existing markets for a customer base that is squeezed by an economy that may be headed for a double-dip? And are they ready with innovations that people want and that RED will provide? What innovations introduced by RED will prove most popular to the most customers (i.e. the most economical to implement)?

I'm sure they are waiting for the reaction to RED's releases with as much interest as we are awaiting the actual releases. RED is the hare to their tortoise. They'll use it to scout out the market and determine which of their simmering R&D pots to dip into, and possibly determine the market segment isn't worth their while for now. Thanks RED, for having the guts to get out in front. Hope you can survive and still prosper when the biggies launch their responses.
 
Stephen Strangways said:
I have an odd theory about one of the reasons why others are not making cameras along the lines of RED... cooling fans.

It seems pretty clear that to have a large sensor reading out at high framerates without line-skipping, generating a ton of data to be compressed and recorded, as well as processed for display, creates an awful lot of heat. The designs for EPIC and Scarlet show that hasn't changed - they still need cooling systems with fans.
Click to expand...

This is all true, though the ARRI D20/21 does not have cooling fans, the whole camera is one big passive heat radiator/distributor with a lot of slots to let air through.
 
Remember Panasonic is a division of Mitsubishi, which is the biggest player in the known tech universe. So they have inertia, patience, enough wisdom to have obtained their position at the top of the heap, and probably the biggest R&D department of all. They wait for the market to show a direction then launch the best they've got. Latest salvo: GH1. For some insights from a one-time Panasonic insider, look at Michael Reichmann's comments at the end of his GH1 review: http://www.luminous-landscape.com/re...eras/gh1.shtml
Click to expand...

4/3micro makes a lot of sense as an entry level large sensor motion format. Fits nicely midway between 2/3" and S35. Still capable of compact form factors and optics. Panasonic would be foolish not to be developing this as the "super16mm" of digital cinema.
 
Red has sold 7000+ Red1's at around £40000 - the company itself being the distributor. The Scarlet, you'd think, could break some records but is the 'prosumer' prepared to wait - I've got a back order on a Red drive - What's the back order on the Scarlet going to be like? You can pick up a 5d tomorrow, canon like the others have that advantage, to sell to a wider market at face value with the product in stock and on hand.

I'm guessing 'they' know how good the Scarlet will be, they won't have a better mini video camera out before it, certainly not a while after either. But they'll have a camera to cater for those not so patient and fanatical about the baby red, probably with an ergonomic design, easier workflow and it will be called Blue or even Green.

I'm waiting I just hope I don't have to wait too long.
 
Canon's DLSR business has sales of around 800 million USD, with profitability of 21%*

Of course, that includes all the entry-level stills cameras, but I'm sure to Canon bean-counters, it's all lumped together. They say the T1i and the 5D Mk II have both been strong sellers for them, but I'll bet you very few purchased the T1i specifically for its limited video capabilities.

The real question is, how many of Canon's total DSLR sales have been primarily because of the video mode? Likely the minority. So, is Canon worried that a small minority of their overall sales will be affected by the Scarlet, which will perform better, yet costs twice as much?

They're probably not too worried about losing customers to RED, but that's okay, because I'm not interested in a camera that records 600 lines of resolution with 480 lines of aliasing in the h.264 codec. I want a camera that oversamples 1080p, records raw, and has decent audio, so thank you very much Canon, but it's not the camera for me, and I'll happily wait for RED.

*Source:
http://www.dpreview.com/news/0910/09103001canonq3profitsrise.asp
 
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