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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Advice...

Times have changed. Back then movies were cheap and a good escape. Now, they are way too expensive and the escape will be television. Just my $.02, but I do not see Hollywood having some great year, if the economy continues to tank. But I do think you'll see some very good ratings on some very bad tv shows. :-)
 
Less is more... That's how I see it! Less money, less greed, less lies, less crap. More direction and purpose, more ideas, more innovation and progress, more truth, more trust. Now that's how you make great movies!!! A bit optimistic? Isn't that the point!?! The future is bright when you know what makes you happy. My advice, go find whatever it is that makes you sound like me...And for goodness sake sell you're red to a filmaker!!
 
... And ya, I agree, the studios won't be able to give em the films they need. I think we will see Indy film flourish and redifine itself bigger than ever thought possible in this economy with in production inovations like red and digital distribution systems like itunes (for a rudementry example).
 
My $0.02 as a business/finance type. We're experiencing an accumulation of "remote and unforseen consequences" in financial markets that originated with deregulation in the 1970s. Most likely we in the US will experience two or three quarters of negative GDP beginning in 2008 Q4. Financial institutions will be stabilized via a mechanism similar to the Resolution Trust Corp of the 1980s. 1) Problem loans need to be taken off the books. 2) Capital needs to be reinjected via federal equity purchases which adds to bank reserves and therefore creates a multiple for funds that can be loaned. 3) Lending needs to be restarted but on sound conditions, not "liar loans" based on fabricated credit information. Ultimately most if not all of the $700B federal "bailout" can potentially be recovered but there is a cost to the economy in terms of higher inflation two to three years out. I'm optimistic that we'll see renewed stability in the stock market within days to weeks as coordinated actions are agreed upon and details become known. There may or may not be further downside "drift" but there will also likely be a gradual recovery over the next 9 to 15 months coincident with stability in the US housing market. By 2010 we should have a growing, stable economy again. Energy supply is a big issue long-term because rapidly expanding global demand exceeds petroleum production capacity and lack of petroleum supply has the potential to limit economic growth. This problem could resurface by 2011-12 as pricing again has the potential to exceed this year's $147/bbl peak. This said most of us will probably experience far less turbulence in the real-world economy than financial markets are currently experiencing. Political change must come via intelligent re-regulation, federal spending restraint, probable tax rate increases, more balanced internationall trade and attention to the value of the USD, and other reforms.

* * *

I own a low volume film production company (dramatic and commercial spots) and am happy to make do with the high quality, low-use, well-maintained analog film equipment shaken loose by the headlong plunge into digital media, picked up at 5 to 15 cents on the dollar vs. cost new. Digital media still is highly experimental IMHO although a price/preformance breakthrough now appears to be at hand in part due to the initial commercial success of RED. I would like to see more breadth to the product line and better stability and integration of software and processes (with fewer "quirks") between production and post-production before spending another $50 - $60K+ on a starter outfit.

It's always a good idea to remain financially prudent and never to do business with a bank as your only partner! Well said. Best to all

George - Houston
 
how do you see that scenerio effecting studios and the movie going public's spending on entertainment? Do you see any positive oppoirtunities for Indy filmakers? Do you see a correlation between that scenerio and the stories people will be interested in seeing or worth telling? I'm always interested in the relationship of commerce and art.
 
Great link, Mark. I haven't read Cuban's blog in quite a while. But everyone should read that and entry and put it to serious consideration.

He is so right. Save! Put that credit card away... lock it up, destroy it, whatever. Drink water, try to avoid eating out (it will make you poor and fat). Don't spend any money you don't have to part with. There are no shortcuts. Patience...

I'm still looking for my big opportunity, but I'm confident that when I find it, I'll be ready.
 
There probably is not a correlation between disruption in housing and credit markets and the public's discretionary spending on entertainment other than for several million individuals who are impacted via foreclosures or job losses are going to have less to spend. For the vast majority, the problem is systemic, not something an individual can address. All that most can do is react defensively to the extent required by personal finances. Psychologically the result is less optimism, and increased suspicion of institutions and leadership. Any personal encounter with a serious downturn such as 1972-74 or 1980-82 should result in lessons learned and more conservative behavior going forward. My affluent friends divide their income roughly into thirds. The government gets a third. A third gets saved and invested. And a third gets spent on everyday living (including housing and transportation). In fact, during times of adversity, when there is no direct personal impact due to adequate capital reserves and while consumption in general is slowing down, that's the time to spend MORE. In contrast, when the economy is strong, "make hay while the sun shines", work harder and save more while devoting less personal time to distractions. At the opposite (low) end of the cycle, don't be afraid to let loose of a little cash for personal enjoyment, provided that you already have it. This isn't possible for the lower income strata. There's genuine pain at the low end of the strata in times like this.

Multiple stories come to mind. The parallel is between Enron Corp and "The Rise and Fall of Enron" and "The Smartest Guys in the Room" which somewhat fairly and objectively organized personalities and group psychology which generated a specific massive corporate conspiracy and fraud. We've seen a continuation of this mentality on an institutional scale nationally with respect to home mortgage borrowing and lending, and in turn in the abuses of non-bank financial institutions. Prior to the 1970s if you wanted to borrow money to buy a house you needed a 20% downpayment and you had a choice of either a bank or a savings & loan. These local institutions carried the default risk throughout the life of each loan. The average loan probably lasted four years due to relocation of a typical homeowner. But since that time S&Ls have been put out of business, and banks have developed lots of ways to generate fee income rather than interest income. Loans are originated for a fee, then securitized, then inadequately rated, then CDOs or CMOs change hands like hot potatoes -- seeking yield, until one day there are $trillions of these things circulating around the world and suddenly no one knows what's baked inside them or what the individual pieces are worth. $2 trillion of equity has disappeared, and counting, while the "contagion" has resulted in a genuine panic. Similar speculative episodes have been occurring since time began. Each time old proven values and traditions are disposed of with a view to making fast money under a theory that something is new and different. In reality "new age vision" is proven to be "age old fantasy" of spinning straw into gold. As with any tale that has moral implications involving complex human behavior there is a long circuitous chain of causes and effects complete with human frailties, fears and ambitions, collective psychology, and limited capacity to observe or to reason that ultimately results in a boom-bust episode, with government summoned to pick of the pieces and "fix it". "Pacific Heights" dealt with one aspect of an undercapitalized individual homeowner's fantasy of leveraging himself to success, only to come to grief. More or less the same thing has repeated itself for at least a couple million homeowners even without a malevolent tenant.

Economics and finance needn't be all that arcane. However there has for a long time been a prevailing academic fantasy that an unregulated "perfect market" representing Adam Smith's "invisible hand" is all that's necessary to generate optimal wealth creation and balanced income distribution. A parallel mistake is that quantitative methods and "financial engineering" can be used to manage and possibly eliminate risk. It instead creates infinite leverage. But economic behavior is merely the sum of multiple human behaviors. An "efficient market" is merely a substitution for an "omniscient being"; neither of which exist. There is no separate branch of applied finite mathematics that can ultimately describe and predict fallible human behavior. You can't solve a series of equations that consist of all variables and no constants. Such "sophistication" only appears to work, for as long as it appears to work, then one day when collective fantasy has pushed the system too far out of wack ultimately it corrects at which time the fantasy becomes apparent. Lots of ways exist to dissect this. They're still airing "nothing down" real-estate schemes at 2 AM as of this moment ...

Incidentally, I thought "Cassandra's Dream" did a masterful job of explaining moral corruption in the lives of a family generation with the result being three dead and one still on the loose at the closing "FIN". This recent Woody Allen film could be used as a textbook case in abnormal psychology.

In business there is always a lot of flux. In the very long run there are no technological problems, only the continuing overriding economic problem. Human action needs a legal framework in order to function. Liberty and prosperity go hand in hand. But that does not mean total anarchy should prevail. Powers of coercion are restricted to the government so that individuals are free to act voluntarily and cooperatively. Markets change faster than national economies. Companies change faster than markets. Managements change faster than companies. Each individual frequently outlasts managements, companies, and markets, as well as entire economies in such places as Western Europe, for instance, which has transitioned to the EMU (the monetary union, not the bird). Certainly, all of us are, at times, at the mercy of an imperfect financial system. I dislike stories about evil psychotic manipulators although such critters do in fact exist, while I prefer relatively detached and objective analysis about bright, well-motivated, ambitious but ultimately fallible people who at times are swept along by an unnavigable tide. Perhaps, to an institution investor, these days we're "at the brink" and the most prudent thing to do is beat a tactical retreat to the sidelines until calm is restored and order emerges from chaos.

(Sorry for the OT post; I can probably restrain myself for at least a year).

George - Houston
 
Jeff Kilgroe said:
Great link, Mark. I haven't read Cuban's blog in quite a while. But everyone should read that and entry and put it to serious consideration.

He is so right. Save! Put that credit card away... lock it up, destroy it, whatever. Drink water, try to avoid eating out (it will make you poor and fat). Don't spend any money you don't have to part with. There are no shortcuts. Patience...

I'm still looking for my big opportunity, but I'm confident that when I find it, I'll be ready.
Click to expand...

Jeff,

in this case I'm not with you. The fincancial crisis has already swapped over the big pond and severely hit Europe. So again we sit in the same boat.

What happens now is Angst for the Angst. The best thing now everyone can do is behave normal. If people start saving paranoide money the crisis will spread in all corners of our economy. Right now the finacial and real etstates markets (in this case US only) are touched mostly. Parts of the "real" economy like the automotive industries already feel the shortage (German car industry for instance) but we don't want to become all involved too much.

The great Amercian optimism is now in demand. Please don't freez in Angst.

And if we talk about getting rich: Yes, holding comes from keeping - but a great idea, assertiveness and sustained effort are much more important than saving. The big unknown constant is and ever will be assertiveness - all extraordinary successful people I know have it. You have it or you don't. You don't get it by reading a smart book or in this case a blog.

I think if one thing can be learned from this crisis then fast richness is by no means a meaningful objective. Greed is a bad advisor so is fear.


Hans
 
Got gold?

(me neither... darn!)
 
Hans von Sonntag said:
What happens now is Angst for the Angst. The best thing now everyone can do is behave normal. If people start saving paranoide money the crisis will spread in all corners of our economy.
Click to expand...

Actually, I'm in agreement with you on that Hans. I wasn't talking about saving paranoid money at all. I was just saying, or actually agreeing with Mark Cuban's advice, is that the best way to wealth is to save your money for the right opportunity and not follow the crowd. While I firmly believe that the best way out of this financial situation is to "act normal" and continue with business as usual, I'm also not an advocate of people spending "stupid money". That is, don't use that credit card so much, not at all if you can avoid it. Don't buy things you can't afford. Stuff that should be common sense, but for some reason people do these things. Everyone wants to have it all and have it right now.

The economic funk could not have come at worse time for the USA. Business is slow right now, it always slows up as we approach a big presidential election. It's as if people just hold their breath. I don't get it, but that's the way it is. Pile on top of that the ailing economy, billions of $$ in bad debt, and a nagging anger over our current government in Washington and it only gets worse.
 
Very Different

Very Different

I followed Red for some time - as many in this community, since the early announcements. However, this is my first post. I'm usually a watcher, listener, but this subject inspired me.

I've never witnessed a business say, "Be very careful with your spending."

Very different and intelligent - a movement with longevity. I will likely be a Red partner (customer) someday.

Jannard said:
I am not your father. Nor is it my intention to be. But I have some advice that is worth exactly what you are paying for it.

Be very careful with your spending. The world is in financial turmoil right now. I strongly recommend that you take care of your personal finances and tighten your belts.

If you can make a purchase that can make you some money, buy it. If you are considering making a purchase "just because"... please think twice.

Our customers are important to us. But not at the expense of their financial safety. We view RED as a long term partnership with our customers. Not a quick buck.

So be careful. We are all in this together. For the long haul.

Jim
Click to expand...
 
I really do not think that now is the time to hold back on spending as long as there is a purpose to the spending but rather I think now is the time more than ever to be very reckless with your spending. The fact of the matter is that you will never make it on a major Hollywood production if you show up on the set with a Panasonic HVX200. Sure the HVX is paid for and does not require a mortgage but it simply will not do the job on a big production. Red One on the otherhand will rival any 35mm film camera.

I remember watching the movie the Aviator about the filmaker Howard Hughes who produced a movie during the depression and was almost bankrupted because he had to reshoot the entire movie in order to add sound and reshot some scenes in order to add color. The conventional advice he received at the time was that he should scale back the costs by eliminating color and sound and instead put that money in the bank. Had he followed that advice he would have lost his money when the bank folded and nobody would have watched his movie if it did not have color and sound.
 
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