canon no APC or full frame sensor video camera in 2010

[Rob Ruffo]

Most of his predictions seem based around the idea that Canon would be targeting the broadcast market that currently use 1/3" or 2/3" CCD sensors (zoom lens, deep DOF etc)

Surely the whole point of an APS-C camera would be that it enables Canon to shift towards the cinema market? (and other DOF hungry markets like music video, commercials etc)

Anyone who interviews people can greatly use shallow DOF - this includes docs, "reality shows" and lots of other mid-end stuff that lands on PBS, Discovery, Nat Geo, etc.

 

[Rob Ruffo]

Sure, but I suspect that if they do embrace 4K, it will first be in their more expensive professional line of cameras, not the under $10k line.

All those companies that make pro 2/3" video gear have to seriously wonder what to sell in their under-$10k line that won't undercut their expensive 2/3" cameras. Sony basically decided to go with a 1/2" sensor in the EX1/EX3 as some sort of bridge. So if Panasonic jumps to a 4/3 sensor in an under $10k camera, what does that do for the sales of their 2/3" Varicam products? Same goes the other direction, if they start making a 35mm sensor camera that is 3K, 4K, etc.? What do they sell that for?

The great thing about Red is that they have few products, so nothing much to undercut. Their new 3 product line-up will have benefits that are clear at each level.

 

[Rob Ruffo]

My point was that sometimes those kind of choices - ie. really going off in a truly new direction - create more confusion and do more harm than good, and in realworld marketing situations aren't worth the risk.

Right now, the vDSLRs are in a situation where even if they had no video capability Canon/Nikon would be bringing them out with the same mix of still camera features, resolutions and prices. Video is just a bonus to the intended/established market - so no real confusion.

Fairly expensive, shallow DOF "cinema" cameras have only shown themselves to be an approximate 5000 unit per year market whereas APS-C and FF35 DSLRs and now vDSLRs have proven sales in tens and even hundreds of thousands per year.

And while it is probably somewhat accurate that the 1/3" 3 chip camcorder that simply upgrades from tape to flash media probably won't be a world beater, there is still a substantial market for deep dof, large zoom range, autofocus capable, relatively compact $2K-$6 camcorders. And those people very well may simply upgrade to a flash media camcorder even if not much else changes. But that in itself allows substantially greater recording quality since higher data rates are possible.

So again, what is the big incentive NOW to directly compete with or undercut RED in the S35 DOF market - when they already sell 20 or 30 times the volume and as much or more in dollar value of a hybrid product that doesn't upset their marketing applecart?

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Just saw david's post so let me add a bit: First, the jump from tape to flash isn't trivial - it allows much better RECORDING with higher data rates and maybe helps with the some of those format issues that come along with having to write to a helical scan tape. I see a camera like this sort of straddling the JVC GY-HM100 super compact and the larger EX1/3 in both size and price. And that probably makes some sense - they have a long development timeline with 1/3" chip cameras with prosumer lenses - so why put a lot of effort now into 1/2" or 2/3" cameras when they too see the writing on the wall as being either tiny chips or S35/FF35. (And they can still claim they aren't stepping on the toes of their broadcast 2/3" lens customers.)

But an EX1 is already tapeless, not expensive and has 1/2 chips and a huge following.

 

[Michael Hastings]

But an EX1 is already tapeless, not expensive and has 1/2 chips and a huge following.

Canon's profits are up even though overall sales are down (as just about everyone's are in this economy) probably primarily to the success of the vDSLRs.

And the EX1 probably will continue to have a huge following. Canon doesn't have to eliminate every possible contender at every level to be successful. And while many people prefer Sony, some people prefer Canon - so Canon will probably sell whatever their target is on their 1/3" prosumer video camera.

 

[David Rasberry]

I really don't see the bulk of video production market moving beyond 2/3" chip sizes at all. For most day in day out ENG/EFP production the disadvantages of larger sensors outweigh the advantages and ultra shallow DOF is not a major issue. If it is, it is more of a problem than a desirable feature.