Competition lethargy?

[Ketch Rossi]

I guess will see in the next few days what the other boys are up to, as I will be attending CES , mostly for visiting the Consumer 3D technologies and what is in the pipeline to bring 3D to the masses in their homes, but at the same time will see what will be brought as far as Videocameras.

 

[Mitch Gross]

Hey Ketch, maybe I'll run into you there. CES is the only Vegas trade show bigger than NAB (except for a home construction show that happens every other year). Remember that it is the CONSUMER Electronics Show, so don't expect particularly high end product on the cameras.

 

[Ketch Rossi]

Cool Mitch, it will be a pleasure see you again.

Yes I know that this is a consumer based show, and it is the reason I'm attending as to what I'm up to 3D consumer growth is were I'm looking at, and so far I have been given quite several reasons to look up to this year show.

Also since I'm shooting some material for Sony with Richard and Gibby, I have to get some gear from Sony, which continues to surprise me in their Photography gear IQ.

 

[Tim Naylor]

I wouldn't underestimate the big three. One of the reasons you haven't heard anything is they don't do long year plus advanced hype announcements. They tend to make a press announcement when the product is pretty close to being ready for prime time. In short, they don't use the consumer as a beta test market. Except for some minor issues, the EX1, HVX, Varicam, F23, etc were all close to being ready to go at time of announcement. I'm betting Panasonic will step into the 35mm imager arena next NAB. Also, keep in mind, these companies probably make considerably more in the 2/3" ENG market than cine style production. No one's shooting broadcast unscripted on RED and that market's huge.

What I'm hoping for is when Panasonic of whomever steps to the plate, they improve upon 35mm HD options. For starters, I'd like to see them incorporate the ENG ergo design / balance that makes handheld so much easier (say goodbye to your Mantis). Add CCD technology and perhaps 2k/35mm imager that's more sensitive with deeper color space. I'm curious - would people rather see a 1080p 35mm size chip with a deeper color space and more sensitivity or 4k with more interpolation and less sensitivity? I personally would rather go for the former.

The only other company I'd like to see get into 35mm HD is Aaton. When it comes to operator friendly design, they got the edge. Doubtful they'd ever compete in price.

What I see as the biggest hurdle for anyone is coming out with a competitive camera for less than 20G. But if these companies are too big and arrogant as some suggest, hopefully a small independent manufacturer will step up. As great as RED camera is, the list for significant improvements is what will drive competition.

 

[Michael Hastings]

If the average red one package without lenses is roughly $25k, then 70,000 5D2s is the same total gross revenue as 7000 red ones. The real issue isn't about quantity sold, it's about profit and how much each one of these lost because of red one.

Yes, the total may be the same, but you don't know how much economies of scale are affecting the profit margin in either case. You also figure that someone who bought a RED ONE can still possibly afford to buy a Canon DSLR as well, but the reverse is less likely to be true. So there is no guarantee that every RED ONE sold meant a Canon wasn't sold.

Yes, and don't forget lenses. While DSLR bodies are not loss leaders, they are likely lower margin than their high end lenses which are only updated every 6 or seven years.

So consider the profit in the numeric advantage of 70,000 5dMKIIs PLUS 70,000 times 1,2,3 or more lenses vs 7000 times 1,2,3, or more lenses. (not to mention the 7D, which I just bought to complement my R1 per david's point, - sold my Sony HDV.) And one of the beauties for Canon with the 5D and 7D is that it is pulling in a lot of video oriented users that don't already have lenses - versus the body upgraders that already have lenses - yet the lenses virtually dictate that the upgraders will stay with Canon, so a built in semi-captive market.

And consider how many indy and music video shooters whose primary need was for s35 DOF that could have afforded an R1 that decided they could get by with a 5D or 7D. That market cannibalization works both ways.

Much as we love RED, these other guys aren't stupid.

 

[Felix van Oost]

Interesting thread...

I would really enjoy a Scarlet, and what really attracts me to it is the modularity of the thing which means I can essentially keep the basic camera for years to come instead of buying and selling conventional cameras once an upgrade becomes available.

Sony unveiled the NXCAM two months ago, which is already a step in the right direction (away from HDV). It's also in my market, and if the Scarlet doesn't work out for me then it's a viable option (I really didn't want to invest in the old standard of HDV). It doesn't offer everything I wanted (recording to CF in XDCAM EX would have been great), but it's better than nothing.

I'm really interested to see what else Sony comes up with this year, along with all the other 'giants'...

 

[Thomas Koch]

NAB will be interesting. A Canon 7D sensor in a video body with XLR inputs and higher bit rate will sell millions. IF they are $4000 or less, OR they deal with the skipped lines and offer a less compressed record option. Then they'll sell for $6000 and sell well.

 

[David Mullen ASC]

Well, keep in mind that a 35mm sensor in an ENG body is on the large/wide side (look at the F35 width), and 35mm optics tend to be on the large side as well compared to 2/3" optics. Whereas 2/3" ENG cameras tend to be on the long side, not the wide side.

It seems that if you are not going to go with a modular approach like EPIC & Scarlet will, you'll end up with a shape like a Red One or the upcoming ARRI Alexa line-up, which can be configured for handheld use.

I don't know if the majority of Panasonic and Sony customers are really desperate to jump up from 2/3" to 35mm though. The consumer home video crowd isn't that interested in large sensors and optics, and the ENG/EPK/EFP crowd generally would prefer the size, weight, and depth of field of 2/3" cameras and optics, so that leaves the commercial, music video, and narrative folks who mainly want 35mm sensors and optics. And sure, Panasonic and Canon perhaps may put out something for that niche market, but I don't think it's as profitable as some folks here seem to think it is, not compared to the broadcast video crowd. 2/3" isn't going away any time soon.

 

[morgan_moore]

Have a think about the EX1..

it is easy to focus

files are pretty much ready to use even interalaced options

it is small and light

etc ect

I think the competition is 'lethargic' because they have not seen what is 'wrong' with cams like the EX1 - which are great in many situations for many many people

I have a friend who works at the Regional Beeb - his background is radio

He never thinks about focus or exposure (left on auto), always uses 'steady shot' shoots interlaced (which 'smooths' his panning)

He would be lost with a large chip,progressive non AF camera and RAW files, he delivers EVERY night a cut piece by 1730 hours for broadcast at 1800 hours

He is also a fantastic story teller who regularly gets 'herograms' from his bosses and his shots regularly make 'network' - he loves his Sony solutions !

S

 

[Gerald Menclik]

Have a think about the EX1..

it is easy to focus

files are pretty much ready to use even interalaced options

it is small and light

etc ect

I think the competition is 'lethargic' because they have not seen what is 'wrong' with cams like the EX1 - which are great in many situations for many many people

I have a friend who works at the Regional Beeb - his background is radio

He never thinks about focus or exposure (left on auto), always uses 'steady shot' shoots interlaced (which 'smooths' his panning)

He would be lost with a large chip,progressive non AF camera and RAW files, he delivers EVERY night a cut piece by 1730 hours for broadcast at 1800 hours

He is also a fantastic story teller who regularly gets 'herograms' from his bosses and his shots regularly make 'network' - he loves his Sony solutions !

S

so this is the perfect example for a guy who shouldn't ever make it into the RAW workflow and stick with his EX until the next generation of EX or NX or whatever ..... just my thoughts ....

 

[David Rasberry]

NAB will be interesting. A Canon 7D sensor in a video body with XLR inputs and higher bit rate will sell millions. IF they are $4000 or less, OR they deal with the skipped lines and offer a less compressed record option. Then they'll sell for $6000 and sell well.

7D's sensor is not fast enough for high quality video in a dedicated motion camera. I expect an interchangeable lens video camera based on an APS-C sized sensor with the features you list would at least be in the XH-1 price range, around $7k-8k base without accessories. I would more expect a scaling up of their existing CMOS video handicam technology to a 2/3" true 1080p HD sensor for the under $10k prosumer market. For practical video production for most of the markets they serve, large sensor cameras would not necessarily be a big selling point..

 

[morgan_moore]

so this is the perfect example for a guy who shouldn't ever make it into the RAW workflow and stick with his EX until the next generation of EX or NX or whatever ..... just my thoughts ....

And there are millions of guys like him which is what the competition IS catering for in a very non lethargic manner

red heads - dof junkies - raw fiends - or whatever we people are - are a small market sector in comparison to my get out and shoot mate

dont think I like his 'cinamatography' BTW - its rubbish

S

 

[Lawrence Bansbach]

4/3micro makes a lot of sense as an entry level large sensor motion format. Fits nicely midway between 2/3" and S35. Still capable of compact form factors and optics. Panasonic would be foolish not to be developing this as the "super16mm" of digital cinema.

While the micro 4/3 format is intriguing, I would guess there's still a much larger pool of lenses available for the APS-C format. And the availability of relatively cheap, adequate lenses seems to be a factor in developing a large-sensor prosumer digital motion-image camera.

Another factor is developing a large sensor that exhibits no noticeable rolling-shutter artifacts (either because it has a global shutter or extremely fast read/reset times), oversamples rather than resorting to binning/line skipping, and can be manufactured cheaply. And while they are all undoubtedly moving slowly in that direction, Panasonic et al. don't appear to be as motivated as Red, whose raison d'être is digital cinema.

 

[Elio Roma]

And

And

Nobody mentioned that if Sony and Panasonic start making HD 2/3 or bigger sensors on their "prosumer" cameras and include great compression codecs they will get in contrast with their line of ENG cameras that sell from 13k$ and up excluding lenses and accessories....

So somebody like Canon, JVC or even Nikon could and should take the step up to this new market.

 

[David Rasberry]

While the micro 4/3 format is intriguing, I would guess there's still a much larger pool of lenses available for the APS-C format. And the availability of relatively cheap, adequate lenses seems to be a factor in developing a large-sensor prosumer digital motion-image camera.

Another factor is developing a large sensor that exhibits no noticeable rolling-shutter artifacts (either because it has a global shutter or extremely fast read/reset times), oversamples rather than resorting to binning/line skipping, and can be manufactured cheaply. And while they are all undoubtedly moving slowly in that direction, Panasonic et al. don't appear to be as motivated as Red, whose raison d'être is digital cinema.

The problem with APS-C as with S35 compared to 2/3" or 4/3" is the much larger size, weight, and cost of fast high quality lenses, especially broad range zooms or long telephoto lenses. M4/3 format is very easily adaptable to a broad range of lenses and lens mounts too, so you aren't limited to M4/3 or 4/3 format lenses. Olympus makes a premium range of 4/3 f2 and f2.8 constant speed zooms that are very nice, though not cheap.

 

[Lawrence Bansbach]

The problem with APS-C as with S35 compared to 2/3" or 4/3" is the much larger size, weight, and cost of fast high quality lenses, especially broad range zooms or long telephoto lenses. M4/3 format is very easily adaptable to a broad range of lenses and lens mounts too, so you aren't limited to M4/3 or 4/3 format lenses. Olympus makes a premium range of 4/3 f2 and f2.8 constant speed zooms that are very nice, though not cheap.

Yes, I considered that comparable 4/3-format (micro and otherwise) lenses were smaller, lighter, faster, and generally cheaper. The question is whether one already has a significant investment in glass for a format and can live with the negative aspects (e.g., bulk, lower speed, possibly shallower DOF) when working with moving images in the intended shooting situation.

 

[Michael Hastings]

While the micro 4/3 format is intriguing, I would guess there's still a much larger pool of lenses available for the APS-C format.

But you really only need one good superwide lens. For everything else APS-C and full frame lenses cover everything that isn't already available in 4/3. And remember an F2 zoom is fairly easy on 4/3 but fairly difficult even on S35/APS-C.

 

[David Rasberry]

Nobody mentioned that if Sony and Panasonic start making HD 2/3 or bigger sensors on their "prosumer" cameras and include great compression codecs they will get in contrast with their line of ENG cameras that sell from 13k$ and up excluding lenses and accessories....

So somebody like Canon, JVC or even Nikon could and should take the step up to this new market.

Just don't expect them to be anywhere near as cheap as a VDSLR. $7-10k minimum is likely.

 

[rafael de]

Are there really 7000 REDS in service? I doubt this because I know of at least a couple of projects where they went through a few bodies. Does anyone have an estimate?

 

[christopher witzke]

I figured that since I received 6022 back in April that they must have passed 7k by now... unless they skipped a chunk.