How many RED?

[RivaiC]

Been in my mind for a while.

I want to know how many RED ONE camera of the company plan to produce ? Do they still taking up reservation orders up to date ? If RED reaching beyond 4000, it's really flooding in the market and wonder how it will affect business. Not too sure yet my conclusion on this. But i welcome all thought here.

Any take on this ?

 

[mdo]

You'll find a lot of posts on this subject through the search interface. There's been a lot of discussion on this.

 

[Prem Edpuganti]

Been in my mind for a while.

I want to know how many RED ONE camera of the company plan to produce ? Do they still taking up reservation orders up to date ? If RED reaching beyond 4000, it's really flooding in the market and wonder how it will affect business. Not too sure yet my conclusion on this. But i welcome all thought here.

Any take on this ?

Following various threads for a while and remembering what Jannard posted on few occasions, he wants to put film making into the hands of as many as possible. Their Philosophy is the opposite of probably what you are thinking of. They called it democratization.

Their current schedule is about 700 cameras a month. Seeing the craze for the camera, as the workflow becomes more affordable, and as it comes out of its beta mode, the demand might peak in about 2-3 years, assuming lot of things. There might be a Red Two camera by then, starting the cycle all over. Anyway, there can be about 25,000 cameras and counting, in about three years assuming the current situation prevails. I don't think Red company has any plans to stop producing the camera as long as there is demand.

If I were to get into business with this camera today, my criteria would be a payback of no more than one year because anyone with a 100K can get a couple of these and become my competition. But the guys that come out ahead are the ones that already got contacts in the industry. I think that is the whole key to the success.

Just my thinking.

 

[Johan Pabon]

Red flooding the market?

Red flooding the market?

I don't see any point in Red flooding the market. First of all: the Red is very affordable but depending on who you are, it's still a lot of money so not everybody can buy it. You allready have to be succesfull as a producer to buy the Red.
Secondly: what's wrong with competition? Your creativity and your craftsmenship will (have to) make the difference.
Third: I'm looking forward working with the Red. Having my own company now for almost five years the Red will be my third camera. (First was JVC 5000, now I work with the JVC GY-HD 201). To me the Red is not only a revolution of the camera itself but also in my own way of working.
With still a couple of months to go I'm reading this forum like hell to find out all about workflows, possibilities, wise investments, and I have to say I'm enjoying the video's and the websites of many producers on Reduser.
It's a challenge: will I able to do things like that? :wacko: :biggrin:

 

[Jonas Nyström]

Red will never be a mass market camera - to expensive and to hard to use for common people. But it's quite interesting to guess the size of the market/target group worldwide!

 

[Jeff Coatney]

Been in my mind for a while.

I want to know how many RED ONE camera of the company plan to produce ? Do they still taking up reservation orders up to date ? If RED reaching beyond 4000, it's really flooding in the market and wonder how it will affect business. Not too sure yet my conclusion on this. But i welcome all thought here.

Any take on this ?

I don't know what market you're worried about flooding, I assume the rental market, but RED could make a 100,000 cameras and still not meet the global demand for a 35mm 4K motion picture camera.

Exclusivity, price controls and limited supplies no longer offer a competitive edge or protection from risk in the motion picture business. In a POST RED world, you can only compete on the strength of your content.

When people refer to the democratization of filmmaking, they aren't talking about having access to a camera and a computer to edit on, the subtext of that statement is that now just about anybody who can afford a second car can "greenlight" a movie. Pre-Red, only an elite few with control over huge amounts of capital could make a movie. The Video Age gave us a taste of this phenomena, in the D•Cinema Age it finally comes to it's fullest historical fruition.

Yes, it still costs money and requires people and gear and expertise and yada, yada, yada ad-infinitum... But, all those resources really only have significant value in a truncated time scale. The same resources without a time constraint are now easily in the hands of your average College Student.

The upside is you can open a viable, if modest, rental operation in a city of 250,000 people or more. And when Hollywood comes to your town to shoot your local flavor and natural beauty, they can rent the same gear they use in Tinseltown.

 

[RivaiC]

Thanks for the interesting opinion guys. I'm just curious to see which opinion will becoming the reality later. I have the same excitement of working with RED soon and dreaming of our own 4K productions. I dont have anything to worry about, some good and bad things crossing my mind, i just want to know what everyone is thinking. That's all, as i said i welcome all thought, good and bad, and it seems mostly to be positive which seem bright to me.

I must have miss a post from Jannard before, sorry if i bring this up again. And i appreciate the effort you guys of taking the time to reply again. Really i do.

It is VERY true that it needs dedication and time and expertise to learn RED. on the side note, fxphd.com 2 RED courses have been the greatest help in our learning curve and very important for us to know what to expect from the camera before we got it on hand. and of course community from reduser.net, from humble to the LOUDEST one.

Best Regards

 

[D Namir]

Democratization of the market, or whatever they call it, it's a nice academic description for increasing sales.
On top of that flooding the market with cameras will not only make the rental rate low but will also flood the market with bad movies.

 

[Stuart English]

Market response to RED

Market response to RED

flooding the market with cameras .... will also flood the market with bad movies.

True, but it will also flood the market with very good ones too.

 

[wshultz]

Democratization of the market, or whatever they call it, it's a nice academic description for increasing sales.
On top of that flooding the market with cameras will not only make the rental rate low but will also flood the market with bad movies.

I really doubt Red will increase the market for bad movies (which is not the same as saying more bad movies will be made). And cream still rises to the top.

 

[laguun]

True, but it will also flood the market with very good ones too.

And RED flooding the market in these numbers in fact - sets a standard of its own, which is great.


2005, in the old "dual duopoly" times (arri/panav&sony/panas) i would never have thought that a newcomer sells more S35 camera than arri in 2008.
2006, as red became more defined, we said: "if they can do it, they will -pretty- successful-"
2007, especially after the brilliant NAB, we thought: "If Arri/Pana dont react now.... at once... they will probably be 2nd and 3hrd behind red in S35 sales - man, that sounds bizarre"
2008 Right now, Red is marketleader. Congrats!

p.s.
from a economic POV, flooding the market is great: The ones who cant make -awesomes- images with a RED, cant do that with an 8k 18 stops camera as well. And every customer moved to S35 4K will -not- simply sell its red for any other S35 camera for -some- time, and is therefore closing the S35 market for competition. And the Red ones will see -many- years of usage, hey, i even still have our old Arri IIb in use sometimes...
OTOH: rental prices will be -very- low. I would not be surprised at all if the rental price of a red one will be ~150€ by Q4/2008. Which is excellent news for producers/directors/dps, less for us owners

 

[sparkhope]

What does flooding the market mean? Red isn't sold at big box retailers. They don't have distributors that speculate on inventory. They only sell to owner/renters. If anyone is flooding the market it's the rental companies that order 50-100 reds for a handful of markets. Red is just responding to the demand. Regarding democratizing filmmaking? Huh? The cost of the camera is not the cost of the film.

 

[RivaiC]

What does flooding the market mean? Red isn't sold at big box retailers. They don't have distributors that speculate on inventory. They only sell to owner/renters. If anyone is flooding the market it's the rental companies that order 50-100 reds for a handful of markets. Red is just responding to the demand. Regarding democratizing filmmaking? Huh? The cost of the camera is not the cost of the film.

Price competition, at the end everybody lose, only customer wins. So what's the point ? Creative competition will be another matter. As for laguun speculation "150€ by Q4/2008", i think it will be unlikely, but don't read it verbally, i would rather take it as premium price is unlikely. As up to date, i don't think RED rental is expensive as most owners stated here. It's a fair price, if it has to go any lower than that because of the price competition, it will hurt. Idealism, everyone will have one say or guidelines, but again dont dream it.

Don't be surprised the democracy might have the total opposite reaction of what you're hoping for.

BUT

Let's take a look at Apple and FCP, they're everywhere, but it doesn't make them any cheaper in service and it's a massive product. Despite all of the negative arguments, the unreasonable cheap or below mean price it might not happen at all. Owners won't be that stupid, unless you're in BIG eat small dog world. RED isn't responsible for this rather owners themselves, ruining the market.


sparkhope :
"The cost of the camera isn't the cost of the film". Serious ? i hope it was that easy. It is PART of the cost of the film not isn't the cost of the film.