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What is the next step from RED after pricefall on Epic! Or how to catch the progress!

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Alexey Datsenko

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While most of us are picking up from pricefall impact from Red, somebody are going to leave this rental business, somebody try to sell their Epics, somebody try to take attention into production but not rental, somebody just drinking:) thinking how he will be return credits which was taken to buy Epics and throw the darts in target with title " Marketing from Red"), but the most interesting question it what is the next? Red has change the rules of game, many people pay a big price for this marketing trick but that done is done and progress is progress!
But now RED starts new reality on the market, Epic will not be a top camera, because top camera can't be for 20K, now the top camera is Alexa and Red understands this so obviously RED wants to have top camera in top segment. So obviously that RED in the end of 2013 is release the new top camera for 35-40K which take place of Epic in top segment! I think It will be new very cool camera with 6K, 1000 fps 18 stops and something else. It is in conflict with Red's declare politic and philosophy about upgrading and not buying new camera but everything is change:) But I think can't be such situation that only one Alexa in the top price market I am sure RED will make new camera for this top segment but in this case all our Epics in one year will be just middle segment cameras. It would be good if RED make some kind of changing Epic for this new camera, but it is unlikely I think. From one hand progress is good but from other it is hard to buy new top camera every 2 years:) Now RED ONE costs 4000 usd who can image this only 1 years ago:)
So how do you think RED will save their main philosophy about upgrading Epic for new camera or business is business and it will be just new camera for 40K and if you have Epic you should just buy new camera for this 40K?
 
Who could have imagined a 4 (allmost 5) year old cam being sold for 7500$ more than its release price 5 years later?

...or even have a market after 5 years...

What other cams from 2007/2008 do you remember that still have some aftermarket value?
 
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Now everything is changing much faster so maybe investments in cameras for 40K as Epic not a good idea
 
All this was/is totally foreseeable by anyone observing the computer/electronics market for the last Thirty Years. Expect Cameras to be better than Alexa at much reduced prices. Will there be similar price drops in lenses, do to increased demand, new technologies?
 
George Butterfield said:
All this was/is totally foreseeable by anyone observing the computer/electronics market for the last Thirty Years. Expect Cameras to be better than Alexa at much reduced prices.
Click to expand...

Exactly
And try to make the most value out of whatever you have access to...
 
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I am talking not about progress, after pricefall on Epic I think many of us would be think very carefully about investments in such expensive cameras which became double cheaper in half a year.
 
Alexey Datsenko said:
I am talking not about progress, after pricefall on Epic I think many of us would be think very carefully about investments in such expensive cameras which became double cheaper in half a year.
Click to expand...

Have you seen used prices for Alexa, F65, D21, F23 or F35 recently?
Don't think you can have a Genesis or Dalsa...

Not to mention an Arri 435/535?

Hahahaha

Buy cameras if you can put them to use and you need them. Either for rental or shooting.

As an investment in an object, electronics aren't really the way to go.

Optics are probably a better investment.
But I guess the ROI is measured not in resale value...

I have bought. Electronics for close to 25 years, and allways expect the price to go down 50% per year, and that three years is the writeoff time. Some equipment, like the RED cameras and Apple computers have fares better, but that is no reason to expect anything more.
 
This is true partly because some folks apparently didn't think long enough about it in the first place. I also believe that this is something most of us should have been able to see coming. The performance of Red One was an anomaly, and while it may have given many false optimism it should have been seen for the freakenomics that it was. In other words; it was caused by rare and extraordinary circumstances that nobody should have expected to repeat themselves. IMHO.

Alexey Datsenko said:
I am talking not about progress, after pricefall on Epic I think many of us would be think very carefully about investments in such expensive cameras which became double cheaper in half a year.
Click to expand...
 
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Gunleik Groven said:
Have you seen used prices for Alexa, F65, D21, F23 or F35 recently?
Click to expand...

What with Alexa? I think it cost around 70K and you will not find Alexa for 35K it is good investments I think it is top camera and with big demand on the market and with big price for the rental you can return you money I think with Alexa
 
Maybe don't worry about the 'top' camera… Just buy (or rent) the camera that best suites your jobs, and will make you the best profit?
Lot's of guys making a great living shooting on cheap and relatively crappy DSLR's.
Lot's of guys making great 'art' using 5-10 year old lower res HD cameras
I made money this year using my HVX 200's on a couple of jobs
I used my 1950's ARRI 16 'M' on two jobs this year as well
My 2 Scarlets got a workout and I used rented Epic's & Alexa's

Alexey - you seem fixated on the cost of your tools. You seem fixated on having what's best on paper (tied to what it costs)

Why???
 
Alexey Datsenko said:
What with Alexa? I think it cost around 70K and you will not find Alexa for 35K it is good investments I think it is top camera and with big demand on the market and with big price for the rental you can return you money I think with Alexa
Click to expand...

Just saw one for 39k with media and extras...
 
Glen Powell said:
Maybe don't worry about the 'top' camera… Just buy (or rent) the camera that best suites your jobs, and will make you the best profit?
Lot's of guys making a great living shooting on cheap and relatively crappy DSLR's.
Lot's of guys making great 'art' using 5-10 year old lower res HD cameras
I made money this year using my HVX 200's on a couple of jobs
I used my 1950's ARRI 16 'M' on two jobs this year as well
My 2 Scarlets got a workout and I used rented Epic's & Alexa's

Alexey - you seem fixated on the cost of your tools. You seem fixated on having what's best on paper (tied to what it costs)

Why???
Click to expand...

If we are talking about buying Epic as business and it is like investments we think to return this investment.
The matter is what kind of your business. For example if your business cinema and especially rental you need the top line camera especially rental in all rental in the whole world 95% it is Alexa and Epic! Not C300 not F65 it is good camera too but rental and it is advertising, music video, cinema always will demand only best camera on the market only Alexa or Epic now.
If your business is production you have much more time with Epic to get back your investments.
If you take Epic for your own cinema projects it is ok but projects cost money too and I think even in this case you will try to get your money back or earn it for projects of course if it is not just a toy for rich man.
But if it is not business and you don't need to earn money by Epic of course it is good investments and you can enjoy best picture in the world (maybe with Alexa too:).
Epic is still the best camera and it gives some time to people to earn some money for their projects or return their investments until Red released new camera better then Epic in the top segment. But I hope RED will hold its words and philosophy and will make upgrade Epic for top level camera and will not just make a new camera:)
 
Prices on Alexa are dropping fast. My guess would be that you could get a complete kit for 22 000 within 6 months.
 
not sure why you guys buy cameras, i just do it for tax write offs... if you think of that way every penny you make on the camera is profit
 
Jeff's rule for buying any item of technology, be it a camera, computer, software, etc..

* IF YOU CAN'T EARN A 100% RETURN ON YOUR INVESTMENT WITHIN 8 TO 12 MONTHS, DON'T FUCKING BUY IT! *

Of course, there are times when I ignore that rule because I can afford to and there's something I just have to buy <EPIC Monochrome is tempting me>. But I don't go crying when the retail price gets cut or resale values fall into the toilet. That always happens. In fact, I think the slashing of prices on technological items is a sub-heading under "Well, duh!" in most encyclopedias. ...Yes, I probably should tag that last statement as sarcasm, but then again, it's not like I'm exaggerating.

Buying a complex digital camera system works the same way buying a computer does. If you try to factor in resale value or perceived market value of the item as a focal point of your business model, you are going to lose every time. I always look at those purchases as a one-time shot, investment made, money = gone. And, as Brian points out, there are times where new equipment purchases can be written-off or deducted from taxes. If the time comes to sell that item down the road for one reason or another, if the thing still works and is still relevant within some market beyond the recycle bin, then I will sell it for whatever it fetches me. Oh, look, new miscellaneous income. It kinda works like, "hey, you remember that workstation we bought 3 years ago and demoted to a development server last year? ...I stuck it on ebay last week and just sold it for $50. Let's go to lunch!"
 
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