Scarlet Predictions Revisited

[michael zaletel]

Many of us participated in a heated debate back in April of this year regarding predictions for Scarlet shipping dates. I was pretty much thrown to the wolves for my predictions but honestly was just trying to set realistic expectations and help people think about interim plans. If RED beats those expectations, great, no harm done right? Recently we've learned RED intends to use a major manufacturing partner capable of producing complex technical items like iPhones in quantities of hundreds of thousands a month.

Although I still think my original predictions hold true for Tatoo Scarlets and first non-Tatoo batch going to previous RED One owners, I now admit that once they get the production lines rolling, the remaining milestones may be met very quickly. However, I think it would be both dangerous and irresponsible of RED to mass produce more than 10,000 Scarlets (enough to sell to previous RED customers) without substantial field testing and feedback in case they find a serious problem. A lot easier to recall and fix 10,000 than 100,000 or more. Nevertheless, I still strongly recommend to those waiting on the fence. Buy a RED One now if you can, get in line! If you can't afford a new RED One, buy a used Non-MX Red One and start shooting.

I wrote the following prediction in April 2010.
http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?t=43805&page=7

Tatoo Scarlets - Delivered November 2010

Scarlets delivered to Original Red Owners:

1. Took delivery before June 2008 - March 2011
2. Took delivery before December 2008 - April 2011
3. Took delivery before June 2009 - August 2011
4. People that never bought a Red One - April 2012

In other words, if you want Scarlet. Find a way to buy a Red One now. Preferably a used one with early ship date that will give you their Scarlet at their cost when they receive cause they only want Epic.

BTW, I also think I won't get my EPIC until January 2011. If I get it before then, I'll consider it a seriously unexpected early Christmas Gift. My ship date was April 2008 btw.

-michael zaletel

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Only one note regarding this. I don't think there has ever been a mention of a Tattoo Scarlet. :001_huh:

EDIT: Oh... and I think it has been said that the only RED owners that will get preference are those that haven't otherwise participated in the Epic programs.

 

[michael zaletel]

Only one note regarding this. I don't think there has ever been a mention of a Tattoo Scarlet. :001_huh:

EDIT: Oh... and I think it has been said that the only RED owners that will get preference are those that haven't otherwise participated in the Epic programs.

Hey Terry... Aren't you the one that threw me to the wolves last time?

What's your prediction? Care to be specific?

Shooting with Scarlet yet? How about EPIC?

-michael zaletel

 

[Subhadip Sen]

It does sound like very arbitrary speculation rather than educated predictions. For one, the hardware is near-complete. All that is left is firmware - of which a large chunk will be inherited from the Epic - and find a manufacturing partner (easier said than done, sure). Also, the Red One credit period will be limited, and can only be redeemed if your One hasn't been executed against an Epic upgrade. Let's assume this as 2-3,000, or even, less than 5,000. I have absolutely no idea what makes you think Red will only produce 5,000 Scarlets a year.

Either way, March 2012 sounds pessimistic and Red can't afford to wait around that long. The established players have known about the Scarlet since 2008, and you can bet they are developing competing solutions in full force.

Of course, you definitely shouldn't wait for a Scarlet. Go ahead and film with the best you can afford.

I wouldn't dare predict anything, though, as I simply don't have enough information.

 

[Stephen Gentle]

I think those are way off... The window for RED ONE owners is supposed to be very short - I'm thinking one or two months tops, not a whole year. And there's no Tattoo as some have said...

Given that they're going to be making them a lot faster than they did RED ONEs, I think that non-RED ONE owners will be able to have their cameras by January.

 

[Aaron Newsome]

We all need to get the same make and model of crystal ball, make sure they are calibrated properly and then we would all agree on release dates. Until we do that, we will never have consensus.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Hey Terry... Aren't you the one that threw me to the wolves last time?

What's your prediction? Care to be specific?

Shooting with Scarlet yet? How about EPIC?

-michael zaletel

Actually, I am on record elsewhere on this forum with a $100 bet that says Scarlet will be released this year. My specific prediction was for Scarlet in late Sept. or early October but that was before the "bug." I still think a Scarlet release is quite probable before year end. Is that "on record" enough? :laugh:

EDIT: And FWIW it looks like I am going to get an opportunity to shoot with a RED ONE later this sumnmer. :thumbsup:

 

[rod bradley]

And as the master himself says and knows whereof he speaks: EVERYTHING SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

 

[Michael Hammar]

With the recent outlash regarding RED vs HDSLRs that's going around the net the past few days, I would think that Red would try to get the Scarlets out as fast as possible--so the window for Red users would be very very small... Imagine shipping Scarlets with a window for Red users only, for 6 months-- that would result in A LOT of negative backlash from those others who've been waiting for so many years!

Hopefully the Scarlet is pretty much ready to go. As the previous post mentioned, hardware design is probably all set to go, firmware needs to be tweaked (bug) but that is also mostly crippled from Epic code I would suppose... so that leaves finding a manufacturing partner.

If Red needs to make it fast with quality and at 'cheaper than US' costs, use Taiwan. After all, that's where all the Apple and other high tech products are/were made. China might be cheaper but it'll have more QA issues.

Or make them in the US, raise up the price by 800 or so and get them out! :thumbsup:

 

[Joseph Hutson]

Only one note regarding this. I don't think there has ever been a mention of a Tattoo Scarlet. :001_huh:

EDIT: Oh... and I think it has been said that the only RED owners that will get preference are those that haven't otherwise participated in the Epic programs.

Yup. true and true...

 

[michael zaletel]

Always nice to stir a debate.

RED doesn't have anything to prove to me. They are already a top-10 worldwide brand in my opinion. Like Ernest and Julio Gallo, Mr. Jannard will "make no wine before it's time!" ...and I like that about RED. Why is everyone in such a hurry? Who cares what Canon or Sony or whoever is doing. Whenever RED finishes doing what they're doing, all of that won't matter. Great brands aren't built on doing something first, they are built on doing something right. Look at the iPhone!

My predictions aren't due to a lack of faith in RED. To the contrary, my predictions are due to my own experiences and observations surrounding how long it takes to do something right and my belief that Jim Jannard will take that time if he must.

-michael zaletel

 

[David Rasberry]

Great brands aren't built on doing something first, they are built on doing something right. Look at the iPhone!

Or the Nikon D90. An example of the opposite. First with the worst.

 

[Petr Dvorak]

... First with the worst.

like JVC :smile5:

 

[Joe Ferralli]

I think believing that this camera will be released this year is delusional. Keep in mind that 2011 is only 6 months away and Red needs to fix a bug(s), beta test, find a manufacturer, go into production, etc... There's no way in hell that this will be completed this year and knowing Red's track record, it will be late 2011 if at all. Go buy a R1...it's going to be a looooong wait.

 

[jaadgy akanni]

I think believing that this camera will be released this year is delusional. Keep in mind that 2011 is only 6 months away and Red needs to fix a bug(s), beta test, find a manufacturer, go into production, etc... There's no way in hell that this will be completed this year and knowing Red's track record, it will be late 2011 if at all. Go buy a R1...it's going to be a looooong wait.

That's exactly what I've been saying all along...and you're right:late 2011 if at all.

 

[Sanjin Jukic]

It was not so much reactions when I wrote that RED needs a serious operating system for Epic and also Scarlet.

What happened?

RED told us about a bug but from my point of view they just threw too much functions for both Epic and Scarlet on such a small or inappropriate firmware and now it is not working properly.

They said it's a bug.

OK it's a bug but then you would need a serious OS to handle properly so many of camera functions together.

Don't forget it's not DSLR it's probably 5 times more than that...??!!

What does it mean?

It means that they right now have to start from the scratch and re-write or make totally new operating system.

This takes time.

How long time it would take?

Nobody knows just because we do not have any proper fact about number of functions, etc,... for those two new cameras.

So I can see a lot of those predictions as a pure forum blah blah blah...

 

[Jeff Coatney]

Finding a new factory to make Scarlet is a setback. You have Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, China and possibly Vietnam as likely locations. There may be credible manufacturing partners in India as well. The target retail price (which may have to change) will be a limiting factor. The target retail price effectively excludes the US and Japan. I think they'll settle in Taiwan-- just a hunch.

Scarlet would benefit from a highly automated production line to meet high quality volume targets. A new factory may require some minimal re-design, new prototyping, tooling and machine programming, staffing and training. The fastest time-frame that I've ever heard of this happening is 90 to 120 days. If the new factory has to build out or acquire new machines or build clean-rooms, there's an even longer window of six to twelve weeks to add on to the schedule.

Scarlet was apparently always scheduled to launch post-Epic. So we're still within that window thanks to our friend the firmware "bug". Its possible that a delay may only cost 60 to 90 days from when the original factory ship date could have been. But it isn't likely IMHO.

I'd really love for RED to have their own highly automated domestic factory. Off-shore factories "leak" intellectual property faster and while innovation propagates through the market quicker as a result, it does effectively limit your product window. But high-demand and high volume and an aggressively low retail price can protect you somewhat. RED certainly has all three with Scarlet.

Dare I predict an output of 3,000 cameras a week? Hmmmm...

 

[Jim Retar]

I'll try some informed guesswork.

Scarlet 2/3" is reported to be around 2/3 months behind Epic.
The Epic bug will take at least 1 month to find, rewrite and test.
The debugged Epic will require around 3 months in tattoo.
The Scarlet will need at least 3 months of further testing (this baby has to be bullet proof)

I would guess at an optimistic 12 months, if finding a new manufacturer is smooth enough and no more major bugs appear.

My gut feeling says fall/winter 2011 though and another price hike.

 

[Joe Ferralli]

In my humble opinion, I think Red should offer a hefty discount on the current R1 to put it into more hands now to create more dedicated users. Let's face it, the R1 (although superior to the current HD DSLRs in many respects) isn't a great investment at it's current price compared to a 5D or 7D for that matter(I'm not trying to stir the pot at all so don't take it that way). It's old news without the new sensor. I personally decided to hold off on a R1 purchase because of the Epic/Scarlet hype. I know a lot of the early adopters will be angry but that's how technology works. We bought a Varicam 2700 when it was first released for $48,000 and now you can get them for $19,995 (less than 3 years later). I like Red, respect Jim and want to see the company succeed and dominate but the other brands aren't sleeping. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Lawrence Bansbach]

In my humble opinion, I think Red should offer a hefty discount on the current R1 to put it into more hands now to create more dedicated users. Let's face it, the R1 (although superior to the current HD DSLRs in many respects) isn't a great investment at it's current price compared to a 5D or 7D for that matter(I'm not trying to stir the pot at all so don't take it that way). It's old news without the new sensor.

I doubt Red will discount the R1 for new buyers. I agree with the above regarding Scarlet -- release delayed to mid- to late 2011 is possible -- although Epic, with stateside manufacture, may be released significantly sooner. The situation may increase demand for the R1. Why would Red decrease the price? The very best you could hope for is that Red would install the MX sensor in all new R1s. But I believe that Jarred said all R1s would be manufactured with the original Mysterium. (As for the vDSLRs, while they may eat around the edges of the R1's market, they aren't really serious competition.)