Obsolesence

[M Most]

but I think the system doesn't promise any ability being THAT future proof.
I still keep thinking in about a year or two , computers will have become faster over and over again...I don't want to spent 200k before I've got some clear answer to me , so I'll be sure you won't be out of bizz by nab or ibc 2010.

1. If you really think there's ANY technology investment - particularly one involving desktop software or hardware - that has more than about a 1.5 year shelf life, at least in terms of being "state of the art," you're being completely unrealistic. I don't care whether it's in the media industry or anything else that's driven, at least in part, by technology. Including electronic cameras.

2. Nobody can "guarantee" that their business is going to be around for an extended period of time, especially in an atmosphere of consolidation. Just ask anybody who used to be at Alias. Or Nothing Real. Or 5D. Or, perhaps in a few years the way things seem to be going, Ford. The only things one can be "sure" about are the things one personally controls. Companies come and go and technology, no matter how high tech, has a relatively short shelf life - one that's becoming shorter all the time. That's just a fact of modern technological life.

 

[laguun]

1. If you really think there's ANY technology investment - particularly one involving desktop software or hardware - that has more than about a 1.5 year shelf life, at least in terms of being "state of the art," you're being completely unrealistic. I don't care whether it's in the media industry or anything else that's driven, at least in part, by technology. Including electronic cameras.

While i understand your point, i have to add:
Among many many other systems we use here, i would like to mention: Our HDCAM VCRs (2002) and HDCAM Cameras (2002) are seeing more and more work. The 90ties D-Beta is in use or rental almost daily, same is valid for the 1998, 2002 and 2005 angenieux zooms. AE & Premiere have been here from V1.0 in the 90ties, discreet software (including max 0.19...) and systems are running daily. The class 1 sony CRTs, from 90ties SD to 2002 and 2005 HDs work their way to the regular re-calibration day by day. etc etc. Heck, even the meanwhile "vintage" BetaSPs are dubbing. Clever and strategic investment is -extremly- important in this industry, and its possible. But i know what you are talking about (we have 844/X and discreet edits here they still in use but EOLed)

2. Nobody can "guarantee" that their business is going to be around for an extended period of time, especially in an atmosphere of consolidation. Just ask anybody who used to be at Alias. Or Nothing Real. Or 5D.

I dont see Adobe going anywhere else than creative desktop software. Sony will offer broadcast and cinema products. Angenieux, Zeiss etc will offer top-class optics for a looong time, i suppose.

The risk is if you invest in smaller companies - these, as the examples you listed, have a -MUCH- higher risk to go out of business or to change their business model.

Companies come and go and technology, no matter how high tech, has a relatively short shelf life - one that's becoming shorter all the time. That's just a fact of modern technological life.

I understand what you are referring to, but i disagree. CD (almost 30), 1/2 inch Tape (over 30), the X86 processors architecture (exactly 30), retrofocal design (over 50), sdi... just some examples.
there are many technologies who do last.
One of the tricks is to avoid unnecessary risks.
Also, i consider the financial loss of an EOLed system or a technology manufacturer going belly up less critical than the wasted time and the amount of lost knowledge.

 

[M Most]

Among many many other systems we use here, i would like to mention: Our HDCAM VCRs (2002) and HDCAM Cameras (2002) are seeing more and more work. The 90ties D-Beta is in use or rental almost daily ...The class 1 sony CRTs, from 90ties SD to 2002 and 2005 HDs work their way to the regular re-calibration day by day. etc etc. Heck, even the meanwhile "vintage" BetaSPs are dubbing. Clever and strategic investment is -extremly- important in this industry, and its possible. But i know what you are talking about ....

What you say is quite true, and as both of us obviously know, the notion of the death of videotape - as with the death of film - is hugely exaggerated and far from the truth. My comments were directed more at desktop products, primarily software and PC type hardware based, where things are moving at a very rapid pace. The more professional products, like the VTR's you mention, have a significantly longer shelf life due to a lot of industry support and heavily entrenched and very solid workflows whose usefulness is still very, very apparent.

I understand what you are referring to, but i disagree. CD (almost 30), 1/2 inch Tape (over 30), the X86 processors architecture (exactly 30), retrofocal design (over 50), sdi... just some examples.

I don't know that I'd put the Intel processor architecture into the long life category. Although they have kept a remarkable degree of backwards compatibility in those chips, the fact is that the improvements in the last few years - multiple co-resident cores, specialized instruction sets, lower power consumption, and vast increases in performance - have rendered their CPUs from even two years ago virtually obsolete. Still useful, but obsolete as far as new products and the heavy lifting required by some modern software, especially in the media industry.

there are many technologies who do last.

Yes, perhaps I was exaggerating a bit. But I think the point is still valid when you're talking about desktop software and hardware, which is what triggered the conversation (which was about Scratch, as I recall).

 

[laguun]

What you say is quite true, and as both of us obviously know, the notion of the death of videotape - as with the death of film - is hugely exaggerated and far from the truth.

I agree - even otto n. in l.a. still rents out arri III, and we use our arri IIb (1967?) for timelapse and FX...

My comments were directed more at desktop products, primarily software and PC type hardware based, where things are moving at a very rapid pace.

Yeah, expensive specialised software is one of the risky investments - we can agree on that. PC hardware isnt to problematic anymore, if you buy at the "sweetspot". A quadcore CPU for ~200, you cant go wrong with that .

I don't know that I'd put the Intel processor architecture into the long life category. Although they have kept a remarkable degree of backwards compatibility in those chips, the fact is that the improvements in the last few years - multiple co-resident cores, specialized instruction sets, lower power consumption, and vast increases in performance - have rendered their CPUs from even two years ago virtually obsolete. Still useful, but obsolete as far as new products and the heavy lifting required by some modern software, especially in the media industry.

Hmm, dont know. Usually our PCs travel from "hero suite" (client and hardware) -> "assistance station" (backroom masks/ title) -> "office" (clients surfing station -> "backbone administration" (silicon graphics octanes and even indys in the routing and firewall..)

Other systems (as avids or discreet edits) stay unchanged for almost a decade (ok, they get new disks and fans here and then).

Yes, perhaps I was exaggerating a bit. But I think the point is still valid when you're talking about desktop software and hardware, which is what triggered the conversation (which was about Scratch, as I recall).

Yeah, i thought that to myself when i read your first post. We have different opinions on some topics (standards vs norms vs specifications as in 4K DCI and interface as example), but i think you were only exaggerating a bit to make your point clear, and i agree with that point. tech-investment is are an intersting gamble, and proceeding with caution is indeed highly recommendable. the red -camera- certainly is one of the very few exceptions to this rule.