Will there ever be a Scarlet?

[NEIL ANDREW BATES]

Maybe Alex Proyas too, director of KNOWING

 

[David Rasberry]

IMHO it would be a serious risk for RED to mass produce and mass ship Scarlet without substantial public testing and feedback (at least 1,000 Scarlets) for sufficient sample data. I predict they'll manufacture 1,000, get those out to pre-December-2008 early adopters and then wait a few months, make minor modifications accordingly and only then mass produce at 7,000 per month rate.

-michael zaletel

Early production field testing should already be happening during the 2 month period after the Epic rollout if it isn't already in early stages now. These are parallel development programs, not sequential.
Among the Scarlet upgrades announced last November was that it would share most of Epic's operating features, differing mostly in maximum data/frame rates and some software features, so proof testing Epic is proof testing Scarlet to some extent. They are not radically different cameras.

 

[Joseph Hutson]

Maybe Alex Proyas too, director of KNOWING

We saw an extended Knowing trailer at RED Day among other things... :thumbsup:

 

[NEIL ANDREW BATES]

yeah, I think Michael may have been more concerned about the R1 owners first refusals on Scarlet than slipping ship dates and he may yet be right to a lesser extent than 2012 but I'm sure RED knows there are $htloads of us out here ready to hit the order button. Given that the form factor seems long decided, I bet stock building is a substantial part of the delayed schedule

 

[David Rasberry]

yeah, I think Michael may have been more concerned about the R1 owners first refusals on Scarlet than slipping ship dates and he may yet be right to a lesser extent than 2012 but I'm sure RED knows there are $htloads of us out here ready to hit the order button. Given that the form factor seems long decided, I bet stock building is a substantial part of the delayed schedule

They should be able to satisfy R1 owners early demands within a month or two if that is an issue. I don't remember seeing anything about R1 owners getting first dibs on Scarlets. It may be first come first served other than for a few hand picked beta testers.
Stage 2 Epic buyers have until June to commit, Stage 3 Epic buyers will probably have a similar time frame, but none of this impacts Scarlet 2/3" schedule as it is on its own track.

 

[michael zaletel]

yeah, I think Michael may have been more concerned about the R1 owners first refusals on Scarlet than slipping ship dates and he may yet be right to a lesser extent than 2012 but I'm sure RED knows there are $htloads of us out here ready to hit the order button. Given that the form factor seems long decided, I bet stock building is a substantial part of the delayed schedule

Exactly Neil. Do we even know for sure yet how many Scarlets each Red owner will be allowed to order. If more than one, that could delay things for non-Red owners even further.

I'm honestly just trying to set realistic expectations. So what if I am wrong? What harm will have been done? I hope Mr. Jannard and team make a complete mockery of my Scarlet shipping schedule predictions. Wouldn't that be sweet! Let's resume this debate in another 6-months. Post your own detailed schedule predictions if you dare. It's never easy to post a public prediction that everyone can point back to in the future. Those who know me know i've made quite a few predictions on these boards and have a solid track record so far. Please God, let me be wrong this time. I want a Scarlet in my hands as much as anyone.

Sincerely,

-michael zaletel
(aka shooter)

P.S. There is one caveat to my schedule prediction. I am making the assumption that RED will fill all Stage 2 EPIC orders AND MX upgrade orders before they start shipping 7,000 Scarlets a month to people who've never purchased a RED. I think RED would seriously alienate and upset it's loyal early-adopter base by mass marketing and fulfillment of a sub-$10K MX sensored camera while those who've placed the $5,000 EPIC stage 2 deposit sit back and wait... and wait. In other words, yes I think RED could conceivably mass produce and ship Scarlets sooner than I've predicted by focusing on that program instead of the EPIC and MX upgrade programs. I just don't think they will and I think it will take longer than people expect for RED to get through all 7,000 MX upgrades and all 7,000 EPIC stage two invite/fulfill. Not many will upgrade their RED to MX if they can buy a Scarlet at Best Buy. There is a smart business element to all this as well.

 

[Joseph Hutson]

Exactly Neil. Do we even know for sure yet how many Scarlets each Red owner will be allowed to order. If more than one, that could delay things for non-Red owners even further.

I'm honestly just trying to set realistic expectations. So what if I am wrong? What harm will have been done? I hope Mr. Jannard and team make a complete mockery of my Scarlet shipping schedule predictions. Wouldn't that be sweet! Let's resume this debate in another 6-months. Post your own detailed schedule predictions if you dare. It's never easy to post a public prediction that everyone can point back to in the future. Those who know me know i've made quite a few predictions on these boards and have a solid track record so far. Please God, let this be the first time I'm wrong. I want a Scarlet in my hands as much as anyone.

Sincerely,

-michael zaletel
(aka shooter)

Jim and Co. know there will be a massive demand for the Scarlet's release. That's why they are working with retailers in/out of the US in preparation to get them out the door. They also have been getting the assembly lines ready for the massive demand...

See what they have done with Asia? That's only the start...

 

[michael zaletel]

Jim and Co. know there will be a massive demand for the Scarlet's release. That's why they are working with retailers in/out of the US in preparation to get them out the door. They also have been getting the assembly lines ready for the massive demand...

See what they have done with Asia? That's only the start...

Like I said above Joseph. The only way this can happen as soon as everyone seems to think is if RED focuses their efforts on Mass production and fulfillment of SCARLET at the expense of MX-Upgrade and EPIC Stage 2 Order Fulfillment. I placed my $5,000 deposit for EPIC Stage 2 and my shipping date is April 2008. I will be really surprised if I get my EPIC or my MX-Upgrade in the next 6 months. Everyone on these boards seems to think I'll be able to buy a SCARLET with MX Sensor at B&H Photo in the next 6 months. If that's the case, why would I upgrade my RED One to MX for nearly the same cost as Scarlet?

If everyone in the world that wants one, has a Scarlet 3 months before my EPIC Stage 2 or RED-MX Upgrade arrives, I'll feel a little neglected. Wouldn't you? They didn't ask me to give up all future upgrade rights and agree to non-refundable $5,000 deposit because they are trying to trick me into locking myself in to EPIC before I see an MX Scarlet on the shelf at Best Buy this summer. I predict RED will focus on executing and delivering upon what has already been promised first (namely MX-Upgrade and EPIC Stage 2) before they release Scarlet in mass. Sure they could pull a Shake or DaVinci on us but that isn't consistent with the RED brand.

Please, post your own detailed prediction dates. I'm begging anyone else that wants to to go on the record.

-michael zaletel
(shooter)

 

[Joseph Hutson]

...EPIC Stage 2 or RED-MX Upgrade arrives, I'll feel a little neglected. Wouldn't you?

Please, post your own detailed prediction dates. I'm begging anyone else that wants to to go on the record.

-michael zaletel
(shooter)

The Scarlet won't be here before Stage 2...count on it.

My prediction dates?

All RED One owners that want their sensor upgrade will be completed in November/December. Jarred said they only expected maybe 20% of RED One owners to upgrade...instead, 85% are participating in the program.

Tattoo in May.

Stage 2 in June/July

Scarlet in August/September

Stage 3 around same time as Scarlet

Stage 4 November/December after M-X upgrades are finished

S35 Scarlet December/January

 

[J Davis]

I get where Michael/Straight Shooter is coming from. Maybe because I think the same way. Given RED's unbroken track record of delivering a product 200% better and 200% late, it is prudent to plan for the scenario he speak of and then be pleasantly surprised if it comes in sooner.

 

[Scott Crawley]

I get where Michael/Straight Shooter is coming from. Maybe because I think the same way. Given RED's unbroken track record of delivering a product 200% better and 200% late, it is prudent to plan for the scenario he speak of and then be pleasantly surprised if it comes in sooner.

I don't doubt his wisdom. On the other hand, when the last major schedule setback occurred, Jim stated publicly that he could see the negative impact it was having and they would not speak of release dates again until they were more certain. Now he has spoken. He said Epic by end of summer '10 Scarlet fixed 2 months later... And now they are taking Epic reservations. It's all good.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

Did I miss something?

Did I miss something?

Like I said above Joseph. The only way this can happen as soon as everyone seems to think is if RED focuses their efforts on Mass production and fulfillment of SCARLET at the expense of MX-Upgrade and EPIC Stage 2 Order Fulfillment. I placed my $5,000 deposit for EPIC Stage 2 and my shipping date is April 2008. I will be really surprised if I get my EPIC or my MX-Upgrade in the next 6 months. Everyone on these boards seems to think I'll be able to buy a SCARLET with MX Sensor at B&H Photo in the next 6 months. If that's the case, why would I upgrade my RED One to MX for nearly the same cost as Scarlet?

If everyone in the world that wants one, has a Scarlet 3 months before my EPIC Stage 2 or RED-MX Upgrade arrives, I'll feel a little neglected. Wouldn't you? They didn't ask me to give up all future upgrade rights and agree to non-refundable $5,000 deposit because they are trying to trick me into locking myself in to EPIC before I see an MX Scarlet on the shelf at Best Buy this summer. I predict RED will focus on executing and delivering upon what has already been promised first (namely MX-Upgrade and EPIC Stage 2) before they release Scarlet in mass. Sure they could pull a Shake or DaVinci on us but that isn't consistent with the RED brand.

Please, post your own detailed prediction dates. I'm begging anyone else that wants to to go on the record.

-michael zaletel
(shooter)

I am confused by your reference to a "SCARLET with MX Sensor" as if the sensors in the Scarlet and the Epic (and RED ONE upgrades) are somehow interchangeable. To be clear, the first Scarlets will be 2/3" sensors and, someone correct me if I am wrong, I can easily imagine that the production of one will have nothing to do with the other; i.e. the two can be manufactured in parallel. Why do you, as it seems, assume that the production lines will operate in a linear fashion, meaning they can't produce Epics and Scarlets in parallel; one will have to finish before the other can commence? Would it be because of a shortage of skilled workers to assemble cameras? Too little space? Not sure what you see as the bottleneck?

As far as focus, I personally believe from a couple of great opportunities to interact with Jim, that the there is plenty of focus on the big picture - including Scarlet. When Jim ran Oakley, he seemed to manage to produce more than one model of sunglasses, and quite successfully. I know they are not the same but it just seems that this management team is more than capable of managing a complex and sophisticated enterprise.

FWIW, I did state my prediction about Scarlet a few posts back. The false precision is tongue in cheek but the general idea is that I believe they will ship Scarlet in late September or early October. But what do I know? :biggrin5:

 

[David Rasberry]

My bet is Red will have working 2/3" Scarlets at IBC in September and take orders shortly thereafter. S35 Scarlets may have to wait until initial demand for Epics is satisfied.

 

[Rick Burnett]

I am confused by your reference to a "SCARLET with MX Sensor" as if the sensors in the Scarlet and the Epic (and RED ONE upgrades) are somehow interchangeable. To be clear, the first Scarlets will be 2/3" sensors and, someone correct me if I am wrong, I can easily imagine that the production of one will have nothing to do with the other;

Given the different pixel densities, you know they can't be the same! But, that said, I'd imagine that they are getting prototypes done on the same wafer shuttle. We do it all the time. You buy space on a wafer with a bunch of other people and throw a bunch of things onto the area you buy. This way, you can get a few revisions if it is new analog technology you need to test (which I am SURE is something that CMOS imagine sensor people must do to refine the design).

Remember that the 2/3 density is smaller, so in some cases, it could be even a little harder to get everything packed into the pixel locations and not take up too much active area!

 

[Sid Idris]

I actually hope they hold off a bit on Scarlet. I'd like to see EPIC out and about - give it a chance to get a foothold in the marketplace. Let's face it a lot of people are using their R1's for web deliverables. I feel if Scarlet comes out on the heels of EPIC it will cannibalize the EPIC numbers or RED will be compelled to keep the Scarlet price up to force the 'value proposition' of upgrading to the EPIC.

 

[michael zaletel]

I am confused by your reference to a "SCARLET with MX Sensor" as if the sensors in the Scarlet and the Epic (and RED ONE upgrades) are somehow interchangeable. To be clear, the first Scarlets will be 2/3" sensors...

I shouldn't have used the term "MX Sensor" like that, you're right. I meant in terms of the primary advantageous features of the new MX sensor like increased dynamic range and etc. I don't believe the first 2/3 scarlet won't be a smaller version of the Mysterium sensor.

As for your question about the bottlenecks I see. Of course Mr. Jannard can do more than one thing at a time. I doubt RED is the only thing he is involved in though. The biggest bottleneck is the fact that RED has never field tested anything like the Scarlet. EPIC tests may give them some guidance but those will take time as well. It could be that the first Scarlets will go out in Alpha testing and perform flawlessly and then my schedule predictions will be off. However, I suspect that if there is anything wrong at all with the design, components or user experience, Jim will meticulously correct it until he and the users whose feedback he trusts most are completely satisfied. I just think that will take longer than you do. I also think RED will need to make a very difficult transition internally from a 3,500 camera a year company to a 7,000 camera a month company. There's a lot to that from infrastructure, software, accounting, customer service, technical support and etc. All of that may already be in the works but it will take time.

Finally, I just have a feeling this is going to take longer. 95% of prediction is gut feel.

-michael zaletel
(aka shooter)

 

[Rick Burnett]

I actually hope they hold off a bit on Scarlet. I'd like to see EPIC out and about - give it a chance to get a foothold in the marketplace. Let's face it a lot of people are using their R1's for web deliverables. I feel if Scarlet comes out on the heels of EPIC it will cannibalize the EPIC numbers or RED will be compelled to keep the Scarlet price up to force the 'value proposition' of upgrading to the EPIC.

I don't see this at all. The Scarlet 2/3 is FAR from what you are going to get with the Epic. You are talking about a $28k body compared to a ~$3 to $7k body. If someone is making web content, clearly the Epic is overkill even if it were the only camera available for a long time.

People who are in line for an Epic already understand the difference in what they are getting.

 

[Terry VerHaar]

I shouldn't have used the term "MX Sensor" like that, you're right. I meant in terms of the primary advantageous features of the new MX sensor like increased dynamic range and etc. I don't believe the first 2/3 scarlet won't be a smaller version of the Mysterium sensor.

As for your question about the bottlenecks I see. Of course Mr. Jannard can do more than one thing at a time. I doubt RED is the only thing he is involved in though. The biggest bottleneck is the fact that RED has never field tested anything like the Scarlet. EPIC tests may give them some guidance but those will take time as well. It could be that the first Scarlets will go out in Alpha testing and perform flawlessly and then my schedule predictions will be off. However, I suspect that if there is anything wrong at all with the design, components or user experience, Jim will meticulously correct it until he and the users whose feedback he trusts most are completely satisfied. I just think that will take longer than you do. I also think RED will need to make a very difficult transition internally from a 3,500 camera a year company to a 7,000 camera a month company. There's a lot to that from infrastructure, software, accounting, customer service, technical support and etc. All of that may already be in the works but it will take time.

Finally, I just have a feeling this is going to take longer. 95% of prediction is gut feel.

-michael zaletel
(aka shooter)

Michael -

I totally respect your "gut feel" as that is what mine is about as well. You didn't answer one question I asked previously that I am still curious about. Have you been to a RED Day and chatted with Jim personally? I can't make the claim that he and I are buddies (I doubt he'd know me in a crowd), but having looked into his eyes and heard the intensity in his voice, I'd say that:

A) he is probably not spending much , if any, time doing stuff other than RED. I'd bet his wife doesn't even see him as often as she'd like.

B) If there is any chance in hell of shipping Epic then Scarlet by summer/fall, respectively, he will find a way, and

C) This is NOT a guy you bet against... ever. :nono:

But, as you have intimated... sooner or later, we'll al find out.

Terry

 

[Nick D]

:emote_hippie:

Michael -

I totally respect your "gut feel" as that is what mine is about as well. You didn't answer one question I asked previously that I am still curious about. Have you been to a RED Day and chatted with Jim personally? I can't make the claim that he and I are buddies (I doubt he'd know me in a crowd), but having looked into his eyes and heard the intensity in his voice, I'd say that:

A) he is probably not spending much , if any, time doing stuff other than RED. I'd bet his wife doesn't even see him as often as she'd like.

B) If there is any chance in hell of shipping Epic then Scarlet by summer/fall, respectively, he will find a way, and

C) This is NOT a guy you bet against... ever. :nono:

But, as you have intimated... sooner or later, we'll al find out.

Terry

Obviously, Jim J's approach is not for everyone, but I know the Sony, Canon, Panasonic and Apple CEO's don't sweat the way he does- I
mean, he's on the Reduser at all hours, and you know when there's no news he's scheming up new features with the Red team all the time...

I actually appreciate the lack of Scarlet news this time, because who needs another missed deadline? Less talk, more action is good this time...

I hope they can immediately maximize their profit stream with Epic goodness, then roll out a flawless Scarlet and let us finally say goodbye to the many HDSLR compromises which it should finally address.

He's certainly on a different wavelength, in a crazy good way..

:emote_hippie:

 

[Stephen Gentle]

I actually hope they hold off a bit on Scarlet. I'd like to see EPIC out and about - give it a chance to get a foothold in the marketplace. Let's face it a lot of people are using their R1's for web deliverables. I feel if Scarlet comes out on the heels of EPIC it will cannibalize the EPIC numbers or RED will be compelled to keep the Scarlet price up to force the 'value proposition' of upgrading to the EPIC.

Given the price of other cameras like Arri's Alexa, I really don't think that they'll have any problems moving Epic. Even with Scarlet on the market.

I can see Scarlet being really big in music videos, indie and lower budget cinema and TV (and maybe even news gathering given the price of other 2/3" cameras), but I reckon that Epic will be massive in the higher end of the TV and film market.