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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Does the EPIC X make the RED One obsolete?

I would go as far as saying that (according to published specs) even the S35 Scarlet makes the RED ONE obsolete.

Not really, the RED ONE still does many things the S35 Scarlet can't do, one important thing being the support of Anamorphic lenses which are crucial in the making of a lot of MTV music videos.

This is my main gripe with the Scarlets. It wouldn't take much to firmware upgrade the LCDs to display anamorphic correctly, so I'm just hoping and praying they will do this for at least the S35 and FF35 scarlets.
 
why would it be crucial to shoot a music video on an anamorphic lens? I'd wager that less then 5% of music videos are shot on anamorphic lenses.

And also, since when did MTV start showing music videos?
 
If you're comparing the future cameras with the Redone it's worth about $25,000 dollars when you take into account it's buying power i.e Epix X.
Jim will have a poverty pack for budget Scarlet owners ie. stills/indie filmmakers. Pro cine accessories will cost the same as the Red usual accessory prices.
Also bear in mind when you trade in your R1 for an EpicX you'll also have your existing accessories.

Now here's the real comparison.....
- New Scarlet owners will need to outlay around $18K for a near decent pro kit.
- Existing Red 1 owners will trade in their camera for an Epic X plus free accessories + their existing accessories.

Scarlet will be a nice B camera. New Scarlet owners will feel chaffed they're got a decent 35mm camera but will need to spend a packet to make it pro cine(ish).
Red will make everyone feel a winner ( and a little poorer!)

D
 
Haakon, you´re absolutely right that definitions are not set in stone, but this one´s moving pretty quickly for my money!! By any current definition of the term, to use your examples, CDs are definitely not obsolete - you can still purchase them in the shops, and can still easily buy brand new equipment to both read and write music and data to them. C-90s you´ve definitely got a point with, though!

It seems there´s a gap in definition that may be the cause of our minor disagreement. That is "obselete" as a purchase choice (not really a correct use of the word obsolete, but you get my meaning) vs obsolete as an existing tool.

It is certain that upon the release of the Scarlet/Epic line the R1 will pretty much become "obsolete" as a purchase choice, but as a working tool in the field it will be far from that. I still shoot on F-900s moderately often, and even DB less so. The F-900 is almost 10 years old, and has been superceded by a lot of cameras in that time, many (F-950, F-23, F-35) from within it´s own company. It is not, even now, obsolete in usage terms.

For me - and I appreciate it´s an issue of semantics to a certain point, but in correct English usage of the language this is the case - the Red One is superceded by the Scarlet and Epic lines, but in no way obsoleted. That´s a vital difference - the difference between having an older but still very much servicable (and therefore revenue generating and/or sellable) camera and a doorstop that´s never going to make you another penny...

Still, we´re probably just going round in circles at this point! That´s my feeling, and I appreciate others may differ - it just seems to me that too many people´s point of view seems to be "It´s no longer the best camera in the world, so it´s totally useless", which does not reflect reality or the industry view effectively. In fact, most cameras make most of their money - historically - once they are a "proven tool", which often means when they are no longer cutting edge and therefore not the king of the hill technologically. Again, ask rental houses when they made their money on F-900 purchases...

Either way, it´s a fairly moot point - my Red One´s making money hand over fist and producing great images, and I don´t expect it to stop doing either for a while yet (although it´s pure rental value will almost certainly fall a little when the Epics ship).

To sum up my rambling, I would say the Scarlet/Epic line supercedes the Red One, but does not obsolete it...

Cheers,
Dom.

EDIT: David, you also make a very good point about the purchase price for a full cine styled Scarlet rig, I think - but again we´re all talking about purchase decisions which, in my view, are not relevant to a conversation on obsolescence. Apologies if everyone else feels differently! :)
 
Hi Dominic,

I totally understand where you are coming from and agree with your points for the most part... I actually don't think our interpretations are that far off. And while of course the RED ONE will still be functional and able to make great pictures, where I slightly differ is that I believe the demand for this camera (sales, rental, or otherwise) will plummet when Scarlet and Epic are released. There are numerous reasons for this, but here are a couple biggies:

If overcranking is not essential for a shoot, a $7,000 5K Scarlet with next-generation chip should outperform the RED ONE in every way. And price is something that cannot be overlooked in this business. Think of how many HVXs there are floating around out there... we aren't talking about the F900 market. RED is going to completely dominate and destroy that field, I predict. And no one is going to pay the rates that a RED ONE commands now when they can get better for cheaper.

On the higher end, I believe that Epic will do the complete opposite of the scenario you describe. Whereas the RED ONE has been out longer than Epic and Scarlet, I'd hardly call it a "proven tool." Yes, it can produce stunning images but cameras still freeze up, error out, exhibit weird anomalies, etc. And even if you claim that your camera is completely bulletproof, it still has a 60-second boot up time and lots of fun little Red quirks (mini-XLR, akward button/battery placement) that hamper its effectiveness as a standard. And don't get me wrong, I love RED as much as anyone here I'd wager, but we need to be realistic.

In my mind, I see the Scarlet/Epic "modular" approach as the one Jim & Co. really wanted from the beginning. When they talked about a million different configurations, these are the cameras they really wanted to make. But it takes a few years and a model or two in the real world to figure out exactly what does work and what the best way to attack something is. Now they've had that experience and the time to work it out. And bless their hearts, they're giving us full trade-in value back on our cameras so we can continue the journey without having to start all over again. But this "reboot" in the camera line pretty much does invalidate what came before it. The cameras are just so different and so much better in every way that unless people start renting out RED ONE packages for $200 a day, clients are going to go with a Scarlet/Epic every time. The fact that there will be far more Scarlet bodies in particular out in the field is also going to compound the issue significantly. The F-900 is a 6-figure piece of equipment (or it was). Not many people owned them, and the differences between the F-900 and F-950 weren't so radical that they prevented the former from still being a viable tool. That's a completely different scenario than what we're looking at with the RED timetable, though.

My bottom line is that I believe the RED ONE rental business model that has been established since the camera was introduced is about to burst, and those who haven't planned out a way to make the new models work with their situations are going to have a really tough time with it. That's what I'm more concerned with. Whereas you have been able to continue to make money with your F900, I don't believe that will be the case with the RED ONE. Thus, I think the camera will be obsolete. That is what I was trying to convey. :-)
 
Red One and obsolete? He he put it in hands of Sonderberg and you will see who is obsolete :biggrin5:
 
I think at first it could be a slow migration for producers to trust Epic/Scarlet. REDONE for all that is great about it had many issues growing up and still to this day has bugs to be worked out that cause problems on professional sets. However, we that have been working with this camera for a year and a half now know the issues and how to troubleshoot. With Epic and Scarlet we have no clue what those issues could be and neither do producers.

So, will the REDONE become completely obsolete when Epic and Scarlet are released? Not for a while IMO.
 
.....If overcranking is not essential for a shoot, a $7,000 5K Scarlet with next-generation chip should outperform the RED ONE in every way.
And price is something that cannot be overlooked in this business........

Not sure I entirely agree with this stance.
Looking at price, I spent $17.5k on a Red and another $20k on Red accessories to bring it up commercial standards. Whilst a Scarlet user does the same, I'll put $4.5k towards a similiar mysterium chip.
I'd also be totally surprised (& so will every R1 owner) if Jim releases a low end product to outperform the R1x in 'everyway'. And if $4.5k even the contest in everyway...well!!

Except for the whistles & bangs, the R1x will be competing with the Epic 35's, not made redundant by the Scarlets. You also can't forget the buying power of a Red, the upgrade availability and the reuse of (hopefull) paid off R1 accessories. As for a particular model flooding the other's market place, well it's a complex rollout of products which is dependant on launch dates/delay/incentives, all of which I'm sure Jim has worked out.
Say Jim launches the first Epic in nov 09. There will be pressure for him to provide R1 upgrade shortly after. Let's say a couple of months..Jan 2010 by which time there may be 500 Epics (s25) out there.
3 months after that the FF35 are due for release by which time there may be 2500 Epic (s35). My R1x will be competing against these and maybe a few pimped Scarlets. That's the time to buy...(a FF35)
I'll also be jumping so fast onto the FF35 for many reasons, least of which will be to maintain market dominance.
I'll be pleasantly surprised if Jim doesn't delay the FF35 thou I'm hoping the S35 can be sold along side the FF35's to prevent this.
D
 
Yup, we're not a million miles apart in our thinking!

I guess I probably differ slightly on a couple of points regarding impact of Scarlets (which will certainly lower the rental price of an R1, but I don't think it will decimate it) and the issue of the "proven" status of the R1 - I completely take your point regarding the fact that it's still something of a work in progress, however we have seen a marked increase in rental and I personally have found myself much more able to convince producers it's the way to go as a DP in the last 6 months or so. When we first took delivery of the camera it was very hard to get it out on shoots, now it's hard to keep on the shelf!

There is certainly an issue of when you bought your Red, though - if we weren't in the position of having our Red paid off by the time the Scarlets shipped, then that would make life more difficult. As it is, we can accept lower rental rates whilst we wait for the FF35 (I definitely agree with David that this will be the time to upgrade, although for slightly different reasons), which puts us in a much stronger position...

Anyways, I think you'll see people wanting Reds above Scarlets (and possibly even the Epics) for a while, and a well priced Red rental package will be a desirable commodity to producers for some time to come, I think. I guess we'll see soon enough!!

Bear in mind that an Epic package will rent for considerably more than the current R1 price, and Scarlets shouldn't be much below once you've added all you accessories together - I would guess about half of the current Red rental rates, depending on spec. Now, given that if you could have an R1 or a Scarlet of similar specs for the same price, most would opt for the R1, that pretty much gives you a baseline of 50% rental worth post-Scarlet. I would be very surprised if you couldn't regularly get a little more than that, so I would suggest you're probably looking at 70% or so real-world rental value once the new cameras hit (and large enough volumes are available, of course), or a 30% reduction if you want to look at it the other way around. Not a killer, really.

[EDIT]: Hmmm... Thinking about it, you might not pick the R1, actually, so maybe it's best to disregard that last point!! Sorry, I'm very hungover today, and probably not thinking too straight. Summer's just hit here, and I spent far too much time drinking on the beach yesterday than is good for me. Was bloody fun though!

I think you'll probably be looking at around 50% rental price, though, as a fully kitted out S35 Scarlet still isn't going to be all that cheap. Really glad ours has made it's moolah back already though, the more I think about it...
[/EDIT]

As I said before, the only real bone of contention I have with these conversations (and not with yourself, I might add!) is the "all-or-nothing" philosophy I've seen so often in these discussions.

Nice chat though mate, thoroughly sensible and enjoyable - thanks for a good one!
Dom.
 
So it looks like a lot will trade in their R1 at full value for Epic. To me, that seems like the best deal. So what will RED, the company, do with all those second hand R1's? Refurb and sell? A bottomfeeder like myself could work with that.

Sorry if this has already been asked.
 
I think this is the deal:

January '10 the first EpicX will be out to the very early adopters upto #300.

Spring '10 the next 500 RedOnes will be traded in for EpicX.

Spring '10 Scarlet S35 will hit the streets, together with the 2/3 model.

Summer '10 EpicX will be tool of choice in the high- to midend market, Scarlet S35 model will compete somehow on the lower end - rental companies will go all EpicX.

Summer '10 RedOne will be obsolete in the rental market - not obsolete as a production tool for all hose who own it anyway and did not upgrade yet.

Spring '11 Epic FF35 Monstro will be out, followed by Scarlet FF35.

RedOne is history.

My two cents, seen throgh a crystal ball.

Bottomline: All those who traded in a EpicX for a RedOne will have approximately one year to accomplish the ROI for their EpicX brain until Epic FF35 ships. For all those who did not manage to return their investment with the RedOne in 1 year already this is a point to consider. From this perspective their will be quite a few RedOnes around waiting for FF35.

Hans
 
I also think quite a few people will hold out for the FF35 in any case - I'm very, very tempted to.

Also, I think you'll find that rental houses stock a lot of S35 and 2/3" Scarlets - they make a lot of money on the Z1/EX-1 market, which is presumably the target market for the Scarlet line. Also, the modular concept is a total boon for rental houses, who do not have to buy as many support modules as brains if they don't want to, so maximising their rental inventory for a lower outlay...

BTW, I thought the FF line were planned for a release much closer to the S35/X models - have I just got that all wrong?!
 
I agree with a lot you're saying Hans...sounds well thought out.

Jarred mentioned a couple of weeks ago they were still holding the Epic release for end of summer.
http://www.reduser.net/forum/showpost.php?p=410835&postcount=393

So let's say the Epic s35's rolls around Nov 09.
Couple of months and 500 Epics later, they begin upgrading the R1's.
Say round Apr 09 comes the FF35 launch. Heard the odd rumour of delays but nothing real.
I'd say by Apr there could be 2000 Epic's and 500 hundred upgraded R1's.
By Oct 10 there could be:
~5000 Epic s35's
~2000 Epic FF35's
~1400 upgraded R1's

Pure speculation/bull@#$, I know...you could even add another 10 months to it all.
Scarlet a nice B or stills camera.

Dave.
 
.
BTW, I thought the FF line were planned for a release much closer to the S35/X models - have I just got that all wrong?!

I put all my speculations upon the past... Considering that MysteriumX is a new sensor generation I would call Monstro the 3rd Red sensor generation. Therefore Monstro will be on the market considerably later than MysteriumX - unless MysteriumX is hold back on purpose for some reason (doubtful). Hence I think that between MysteriumX (EpicX) and Monstro (FF35 Epic) is about one year or even more to return your investment.

The only reason why Red can be forced to bring Epics with a Monstro sensor earlier onto the market are the competitors. Otherwise I don't see any reason that Red would canabalise its own products and go the known risky route of an immature product (I guess they learned their lesson very well).

Hans
 
Hey Hans, yeah I understand your point, but I thought Red's position was that the Monstro FF cams would follow the S35 M-X cams by a few months - I guess we'll see!

I'm fairly happy to wait for an FF35 Epic, but I would like it to be before spring 2011!!!

My guess is we'll see the Epic FF35 around spring 2010, but I certainly hope that it will be a rock-solid performer as soon as it rolls off the shelf - like you, I'm sure the Red team have climbed hard up that learning curve, and the move to ASICs hints at confidence that the system will work well without tweaking in the field...

Interesting times we live in (something of a curse, I hear!)...

Cheers,
Dom.
 
re: Making Obsolesence obsolete:

My S16 film camera worked on top jobs and was rentable for over 20 years.

My Betacam Sp was usable on good jobs of a period of almost 15 years.

My Sony HDCam 700A was obsolete in about 7 years...

MY 24P HD cam is still working but probably won't go over 5 or 6 years.

My RED 1 will be replaced in about 2 to 3 years.....

Yup Obsolesence is obsolete!!!!!


ps: The one thing that Arri or Sony or Panasonic never did was take these old bodies back for full price!!!!!
 
My Sony HDCam 700A was obsolete in about 7 years...

MY 24P HD cam is still working but probably won't go over 5 or 6 years.

I would add that the F900 was introduced in 1997, which means it has had a usable life of at least 12 years (there are still many, many F900's in use today - just go on any multicam sitcom set, among other things..). It might be interesting to see how many Red Ones are still being used in 2020.

I would also add that 35mm cameras built over 30 years ago are still used every day, augmented and modernized by modern optics and modern film stocks.

ps: The one thing that Arri or Sony or Panasonic never did was take these old bodies back for full price!!!!!

Quite true. And since the obsolescence claim was always clearly intended to refer to electronic cameras and not film cameras, that is a very significant point.
 
The only reason why Red can be forced to bring Epics with a Monstro sensor earlier onto the market are the competitors. Otherwise I don't see any reason that Red would canabalise its own products and go the known risky route of an immature product (I guess they learned their lesson very well).

Hans

With the upgrade deal being as fantastic as it is (and with the possibility of a Red loss per unit) Red may have another reason for getting Epic X out sooner than latter.

As soon as Epic X is out the Red 1 to Epic X upgrade deal stops!

regards

Michael
 
I'm still not sure why people consider the upcoming S35 Scarlet as a B-cam. It should, according to current specs, outperform the R1 in amost every way, especially in dynamic range, compression and resolution. Once it comes out, I think the R1 would become the B-cam on most shoots.

As far as the upgradeability of the R1 goes... I'm hopeful it can be upgraded to the new X sensors, but there is a limit to upgradeability before the other electronics in there just don't cut it anymore. It's what makes the whole modular approach of the DSMC so brilliant.

The word "obsolete" really isn't appropriate, though. While the R1 may not make much sense as a brand new purchase once Scarlet comes out, it will certainly still be capable of producing outstanding imagery. I imagine it's footage will hold up extremely well to that of Scarlet & Epic, even under intense scrutiny, for many, many years to come.
 
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