Speculation, Scarlet S35 .. DSMC or PRO CINEMA?

[Mark L. Pederson]

I think it's interesting that the Scarlet S35 is branded DSMC and the Epic X is branded "pro cinema". I think I understand the logic ... but here's some food for thought:

#1: I think the Red One is "pro cinema". Period. Plenty of "pro" examples - we are working with Scorsese - I think that's "pro".

#2: If you look at the Epic-X deal vs the Epic S35 deal - they are the SAME price - but the Epic-X deal gives you IO module, Battery Module + CF module.

Everyone now thinks that that means the IO module, Battery Module + CF module will cost $10K. Unless I missed it, Jim never said that. He did say ... he'd make a "package deal" - that's what you have here. Let's assume for a moment the $10K price is actually correct (I suspect it is not) -

IO module, Battery module + CF module = $10K
Scarlet S35 Brain = $7K

now you are $17K - no batteries, EVF, or LCD - but body and parts to record.

(did Jim confirm/deny that ONE lens mount is included in price of the brain?)

now .. we don't know how much the 1080 LCD monitors (assuming 1080 here folks) and 1080 EVF will be - I'll take a stab -

EVF - $3999
LCD - $2999
DSMC batteries - $400 each

now ... I'm $17K + $4K + $3K + $1.2K (3 batteries) = $24.2K

12% is approx. $3K.

Any way I slice it - Scarlet S35 at full price is the move. Hold back your Red One for upgrade.

So ... what's the wild-card here?

It's all timing.

Right now, Scarlet S35 is slated to come out of the gate first. Before any Epic. Before any Red One to Mysterium upgrade.

The questions that Red might not even know the answers too are ... WHEN WILL RED OFFER THE MYSTERIUM X UPGRADES TO THE RED ONE? AFTER ALL THE EPIC-Xs SHIP?

And ...

HOW LONG WILL THE SCARLET S35 BE THE ONLY DSMC (or Mysterium X "pro cinema") CAMERA SHOOTING?

Think about it.

Less high frame rates ... but 5K. PL mount. More dynamic range. A BETTER image than the Red One.

So ... Scarlet S35 is your A camera. Red One is your B camera.

Now ... I have multiple cameras - so I can mix and match my upgrade choices - LOTS of options and combinations - and personally - I'm not really thinking too hard on any of this because I think MORE will change, and I am a bit SHOCKED as the reaction of some folks - but I just want to say ... I think it's a mistake to under-estimate the Scarlet S35.

Here's one hypothetical scenario -

RED emails me - the first Scarlet S35s are ready to ship in a few weeks.

What does Offhollywood want to do?

I ask ... "how long until Epic-X?"

RED says ... "not sure, we are working day and night, trying for .... XXXXX - but you can have a Scarlet S35 in two weeks. Do you want one?"

I will say "I'LL TAKE IT". (not sure how many I would take, that really depends on my gut reaction to what they are saying (or not saying) about when the Epic(s) will ship and it's not clear IF YOU WANT TO WAIT TO UPGRADE - DO YOU STILL HOLD A PRIORITY IN LINE TO BUY AT FULL PRICE FOR A NEW RED PRODUCT?

Will I take the 12% and surrender a Red One(s)??

HELL NO - AND I DON'T THINK ANYONE WILL.

So I pay full price. Let's imagine the new EVF and LCD are not ready yet and my existing ones work just fine with the Scarlet S35.

Let's assume my math and assumptions above are more or less correct and I go in for $24K+ to get shooting 5K, Mysterium X right out of the gate.

Three months pass.

Epic-X time. They start shipping - PRIOR TO EPIC S35 - they are just filling Epic-X orders. THOUSANDS.

I trade all of my RED ONES in for EPIC X camera. Why?

Because (I don't think) Red won't ship any Epic S35s or FF35s until they ship all the Epic X cameras. They will sell OVER 3000 EPIC X CAMERAS. EASY. If they do 500 a month ... that's 6 months of Epic-X roll-out.

YES. 100% PURE SPECULATION.

That's just the point.

All we can do is speculate. We know RED is working around the clock. We know Jim listens to his customers.

I just speculate that .... as much as I am dying for 617 and Epic FF35 ...

The Scarlet S35 is gonna ROCK HARD!! and Jim can call it what he wants ... it sure a shit will be ... PRO CINEMA.

And I know there is no way in hell I'm gonna sit around and wait while folks are shooting 5K Redcode on the next-gen Red sensor.

So ... a bit of a rant here .... but I'm excited. And I want it all.

No bench sitting for me.

Gimme a Scarlet S35.

Then an X ... then a FF35 ... then 617 ...

 

[Chris Gearhart]

Good speculation, Mark. Scarlet might be the way to go--just outright purchase it and upgrade later.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds! No matter which way you slice it though, this is a fun time to be alive!

 

[Jason Diamond]

yeah. what he said.

you are on the money mark. i want to know if i do upgrade my sensor for whatever reason for 4500$ will my trade allowance be 22k since 17.5 + 4.5k is 22k.

seems only fair.

scarlet is def in the plans of acquisition

 

[Joseph Ward]

Just to keep things into perspective.

Guys, I'm starting to feel retarded here. What am I missing?

Let's try to find some facts we can all agree on just by reading the brochure:

Fact 1) Red One = $17.5k credit
Fact 2) Modules are "at no additional cost"
Fact 3) Epic X listed price is $28k (brain, cf module, io module, battery module)
Fact 4) There is a $10.5k difference.

My wishful speculation.
The modules should be under a $1000 each(not including Lenses)? Here are links that show some tech, and prices.
http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/10/13...d-lcd-monitor/
http://www.engadget.com/2008/04/21/n...le-lcd-module/
http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/produc....html#features
http://www.acetoolonline.com/Product...rce=googlebase
http://www.pricewatch.com/hard_remov.../ssd_128gb.htm
I know Red will have better tech than theses, with different prices, when the brains arrive.

 

[Peter McCully]

Some interesting thoughts Mark. One thing for sure we have plenty of time to mull it over.

 

[Jason Ing]

Mark P.,

What are your thoughts on the Scarlet FF35? You mention only S35.

 

[Mark Pugh]

yeah. what he said.

i want to know if i do upgrade my sensor for whatever reason for 4500$ will my trade allowance be 22k since 17.5 + 4.5k is 22k.
seems only fair.

That's not fair, it's ridiculous. It means that Red is funding a sensor upgrade program that just costs them money.

 

[Jason Diamond]

well im assuming the trade in is for them to resell the R1 in some way. they cant be trashing them and if 5000 people all trade in where do they go? just my thoughts.
also because they switched the 'use it once' option which does not include sensor upgrade now as it did before.
so you can still upgrade and get some allowance after you upgraded the sensor so i think its a question thats fair to ask.

 

[Mark L. Pederson]

Mark P.,

What are your thoughts on the Scarlet FF35? You mention only S35.

VERY TOUGH CALL. Scarlet FF35 has amazing spec/price ratio compared to Epic FF35.

We don't yet have a clear understanding of the Redcode. Redcode 225 does NOT mean 225MB/s - I think they are taking framerates into calculation here. So I would need to know if I can get the same sampling and compression per pixel on both cameras.

I expect something a bit more EPIC than higher frame-rates to justify $20K+ - and the specs WILL change. And I expect EPIC SPECS to IMPROVE.

My GUT is that I will SKIP OVER Scarlet FF35 because I'll be ROCKIN EPIC FF35s and SKIP OVER EPIC 645 FOR the 617.

But TIMING of delivery is the real key for me.

 

[Jason Ing]

VERY TOUGH CALL. Scarlet FF35 has amazing spec/price ratio compared to Epic FF35.

We don't yet have a clear understanding of the Redcode. Redcode 225 does NOT mean 225MB/s - I think they are taking framerates into calculation here. So I would need to know if I can get the same sampling and compression per pixel on both cameras.

I expect something a bit more EPIC than higher frame-rates to justify $20K+ - and the specs WILL change. And I expect EPIC SPECS to IMPROVE.

My GUT is that I will SKIP OVER Scarlet FF35 because I'll be ROCKIN EPIC FF35s and SKIP OVER EPIC 645 FOR the 617.

But TIMING of delivery is the real key for me.

Yeah, Redcode is something I am completely clueless on. Scarlett S35 is at 80. Scarlett FF35 more then doubled since the Nov. 13th announcement from 42 to 100. But the others stayed the same at 225; except the Epic X at 250. Does Redcode affect image quality?

You're right, $23k is a huge difference between the two FF35's. I'm curious what the justification will be. But the Scarlett FF35 is a possible path for me. You're in a way higher league then me, so your deciding factors are different.

 

[Mark L. Pederson]

Does Redcode affect image quality?

Recode IS image quality. I just think the number now means something different.

You're right, $23k is a huge difference between the two FF35's. I'm curious what the justification will be.

There will be justification ... more than some higher frame-rates for $20K+, or (IMO) nobody will buy it.

 

[Tom Lowe]

So S35 Epic got a big bump up in terms of higher fps at higher res, huh? That camera is looking sweet.

The real problem with S35 and FF35 Scarlet now is lack of legit overcranking. Jim actually TOOK AWAY the 3K @ 60fps option, which is not good news at all. :waaa:

 

[diskojerk]

Everyone now thinks that that means the IO module, Battery Module + CF module will cost $10K. Unless I missed it, Jim never said that. He did say ... he'd make a "package deal" - that's what you have here. Let's assume for a moment the $10K price is actually correct (I suspect it is not) -

I don't think the math is right on the modules. For the sake of argument, let's say that there will be 5000 RED ONE camera's ordered and delivered by the end of 2008 (could be more, could be less but for the sake of this example lets just say it's 5000 units). Out of those 5000 units, let's say 2500 people opt for the EPIC-X trade in. If the set of modules included in the package are at no extra cost and each set is estimated at $10,000 that comes to $25,000,000. Of that $25,000,000 let's say 25% (about 6.25 million) of that is profit (probably much less) which means that 75% of the cost of the modules is manufacturing et al. which comes out to a hard cost loss of over 18 million dollars (probably more). Now, if all 5000 RED ONES are traded in that would leave the company open to a 36 million dollar loss. It just doesn't add up. Now let's say the manufacturing cost of all the modules in the EPIC-X package(other than the brain) is $500, which would expose the company to a $2.5 million loss. And while the prospect of a loss with those numbers is nothing to sneeze at, it certainly is a much easier hit than $36+ million. I'm not a business man or an accountant, so if I'm way off, please feel free to tell me.

 

[Mark L. Pederson]

I don't think the math is right on the modules. For the sake of argument, let's say that there will be 5000 RED ONE camera's ordered and delivered by the end of 2008 (could be more, could be less but for the sake of this example lets just say it's 5000 units). Out of those 5000 units, let's say 2500 people opt for the EPIC-X trade in. If the set of modules included in the package are at no extra cost and each set is estimated at $10,000 that comes to $25,000,000. Of that $25,000,000 let's say 25% (about 6.25 million) of that is profit (probably much less) which means that 75% of the cost of the modules is manufacturing et al. which comes out to a hard cost loss of over 18 million dollars (probably more). Now, if all 5000 RED ONES are traded in that would leave the company open to a 36 million dollar loss. It just doesn't add up. Now let's say the manufacturing cost of all the modules in the EPIC-X package(other than the brain) is $500, which would expose the company to a $2.5 million loss. And while the prospect of a loss with those numbers is nothing to sneeze at, it certainly is a much easier hit than $36+ million. I'm not a business man or an accountant, so if I'm way off, please feel free to tell me.

You are way off.

 

[Jason Ing]

So S35 Epic got a big bump up in terms of higher fps at higher res, huh? That camera is looking sweet.

The real problem with S35 and FF35 Scarlet now is lack of legit overcranking. Jim actually TOOK AWAY the 3K @ 60fps option, which is not good news at all. :waaa:

Maybe it was an oversight? Even the Scarlet 2/3 can overcrank at 3k.

 

[Jason Ing]

I don't think the math is right on the modules. For the sake of argument, let's say that there will be 5000 RED ONE camera's ordered and delivered by the end of 2008 (could be more, could be less but for the sake of this example lets just say it's 5000 units). Out of those 5000 units, let's say 2500 people opt for the EPIC-X trade in. If the set of modules included in the package are at no extra cost and each set is estimated at $10,000 that comes to $25,000,000. Of that $25,000,000 let's say 25% (about 6.25 million) of that is profit (probably much less) which means that 75% of the cost of the modules is manufacturing et al. which comes out to a hard cost loss of over 18 million dollars (probably more). Now, if all 5000 RED ONES are traded in that would leave the company open to a 36 million dollar loss. It just doesn't add up. Now let's say the manufacturing cost of all the modules in the EPIC-X package(other than the brain) is $500, which would expose the company to a $2.5 million loss. And while the prospect of a loss with those numbers is nothing to sneeze at, it certainly is a much easier hit than $36+ million. I'm not a business man or an accountant, so if I'm way off, please feel free to tell me.

Uh, yeah, I think the generalizations are too general and not taking in a lot of other factors.

For example, "if all 5000 RED ONES are traded in that would leave the company open to a 36 million dollar loss".

I think the plan is to upgrade them to the Mysterium X sensors and sell them. So 36 mill loss?

I'll stop there.

 

[Tom Lowe]

Maybe it was an oversight? Even the Scarlet 2/3 can overcrank at 3k.

I hope so.

 

[diskojerk]

You are way off.

I'm going from the basis of people assuming that the modules in the EPIC-X package are worth $10,000 (which I am assuming does not include the brain). Unless I'm reading it wrong, 10,000 x 5,000 is 50,000,000. 50 million total if they were to sell the same module package.

"I think the plan is to upgrade them to the Mysterium X sensors and sell them. So 36 mill loss? " Regardless of how many RED ONES they upgrade and re-sell, the loss on the modules is still the same. The reselling of the upgraded RED one's only offsets the 17,500 credit given to the EPIC-X purchasers.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not responding to be argumentative.

 

[Katty Galloo]

So S35 Epic got a big bump up in terms of higher fps at higher res, huh? That camera is looking sweet.

The real problem with S35 and FF35 Scarlet now is lack of legit overcranking. Jim actually TOOK AWAY the 3K @ 60fps option, which is not good news at all. :waaa:

I'am feeling the same way!

 

[Cüneyt Kaya]

the scarlet s35 can do a lot of the jobs the epic s35 will do (based on my personal experience)

frame rates cost...
i understand

but thinking of how often i use the 100 fps@ 2k i get to think a little bit.

it is damn cool to shoot 350 fps @ 2k.
i probably buy an epic just for my pleasure.
but scarlet s35 and ff35 seems to be the sweet spot for me businesswise.
(invest and fastest ROI)

right now i try to really understand the difference between scarlet s35 and epic s35.

hey i can buy 4 scarlet s35 brains for the price of one epic s35 brain.
its normal that slightly better features cost exponentially more, but now
i compare scarlet FF35 and Epic S35

DR scarlet wins
resolution scarlet wins


frame rates epic s35 wins
redcode epic s35 wins (here we have to see what it really do)

thinking from a dop point of view: i choose DR over Frame Rates