Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

"Blu-Ray has five years left" - Samsung

They said the same thing about books... How first computers and then the Internet would kill them off because it is all about convenience or whatever. But exactly the opposite happened: More books are being published now than ever.

I think what some of you are forgetting is that movies have at least two distinct phases in their distribution cycle: INITIAL DISTRIBUTION and SELL-THROUGH.

The first is the phase where people first see a film. This is definitely changing. But the second is when someone likes a film enough to want to 'own' it. This is where dvd's and blu-rays come in. These discs therefore represent no direct challenge or competition to Internet streaming or whatever other new technology is used for initial distribution. I just can’t see someone ‘investing’ lets say $300 on a “virtual” box set of 25 movies from John Ford (like the Ford at Fox box set). For that kind of money the damn thing better have a glossy book, an awesome case, photographs, essays, mementos, drapery and a velvet rope and red carpet welcoming me to John Ford’s works. You are telling me an iPod is going to change this? I don’t think so.

And before anyone points to the music industry as an 'example', please remember that the average person thinks of movies differently than music. With movies there is the view that it is more of an investment (time-wise) to sit through a film than listening to music. So being able to 'own' your own physical copy of a film that you like with all the extras and special features still holds a very strong appeal. With music it just isn’t so (especially after the Music industry failed to understand this and at one point priced CD’s MORE than movies and only gave a crappy disc with an insert booklet in return… wait! At one point they actually used to separate the two in those long plastic containers to make it seem like more and you had to assemble it yourself).

So anyway, I just have a really hard time believing that suddenly an entire phase of a movie's existence is just going to disappear. Sell-through is here to stay. And the best way still is a physical disc. Just look at how excited people are about the imminent release of Blu-Rays from the Criterion Collection. These are films we all have already seen and, in many cases, even already own. But just the fact that Criterion is putting out collector editions of excellent films with excellent transfers and really cool extra features (They invented it!) is enough to make people spend money again on the same films. Long live physical reality where I can actually 'hold' a movie in my hands!!!


***
 
Agree as well, blu-ray is too late. It will take too long to convince the average customers, the masses. Buy a macbook touch/pro in 2011 and you will get right in your hands at least 500 Mb ssd storage, wireless HDMI to connect to your flat tv, integrated 4g/LTE with at least 20Mbit/s internet access and a nice oled display. So you can download your HD Videos via mobile internet very fast and easy. I think, it's all about convenience, the iPhone is a good example how it works.

Uhhhhhhh....Right. That's why Apple TV has been so successful :glare:
 
Lot of Blu-Ray naysaying going on here...

As far as consumer video goes, Blu-Ray is it and probably all there will be for the next 10+ years unless someone comes along with something that can vastly improve the image quality *AND* drastically cut the price.

The average consumer is comfortable with Blu-Ray and I don't understand why people think it's a dead or dying format.

Key points in favor of Blu-Ray right now:

* Full backing from every major Hollywood studio.
* Player prices falling faster than DVD player prices at this stage in their introduction.
* Players under $300 for this holiday shopping season, Sony S300 overstocks on clearance soon for ~$250.
* Picture quality outpaces most consumer displays and many peoples' eyesight. Vastly superior image and sound compared to any online, on-demand, or electronic delivery currently available.
* Tangible media to buy, no DRM restricted downloads locking you into single platforms (iTunes).
* Profile 2.0 has opened up the "managed copy" and "digital copy" features to allow disc owners to load their movies at full quality onto media servers.

I fully expect Blu-Ray to be the last of the disc-based media formats. The future (to me at least) is solid state in the form of single-write PROMs and WORM FLASH for content distribution.

Convenience of obtaining the media is a good argument. However, there is a large portion of the retail market out there who prefers quality over convenience. Why should I spend $20 on an "HD" movie through iTunes? It's barely better than DVD quality, in some ways inferior. The audio is inferior to DDEX 5.1 or DTS, I can only play it on my AppleTV, iPod and computers. I feel the same way about audio... I can usually pick up a CD cheaper than an album on iTunes, much better quality, no DRM. But I'm an audiophile, I'm a videophile. I don't tend to buy any movie unless it's going to look great on my 72" 1080P DLP (AppleTV HD looks like ass). I don't tend to buy music unless it's going to sound great on my sound system. iTunes downloads are intended for the crowd who prefers to listen to their music through shitty earbuds and table-top iPod docking stereo systems. Unfortunately, that's 88.5% of the market.
 
And here I thought the whole idea of going camping was to get away from civilization and electricity and modern comforts. :innocent:

In any case, I still fail to see how having a nice shelf of movies with cases precludes one from also having the iTunes version on one's laptop. In fact I think that the tendency in the future is for movie releases to also include a digital copy for when people want to go camping. I think a few blu-ray releases already did this.

By the way, when you were camping, what movie did you end up seeing?

Hehe.... When you go camping 5 days a year, you want to get away from it all. When you camp 75 days a year, you sometimes miss your movie collection. :wink: That night I watched Batman Begins @ 1080.

I am not saying that Bluray sucks or is lame. I think Bluray will be successful. I'm just saying that after Bluray, the model will move toward network distribution and HDD or solid-state storage. I mean, look - when I was a punk working at the pizza shop at 15, half my paltry check every week went to buying shiny new CDs. I had racks of them that I worshiped and treasured and played all the time. Now I have all my music on my desktop, with not a jewel case in sight. There is a model for this type of change.
 
Unfortunately Blu-Ray has not been meeting industry expectations. Consumers can't see enough of a difference from SD DVDs.

I believe Blu-Ray will be around for a while as there is not a cheaper/better technology to replace it. I also believe that the next generation whenever it arrives will be a solid state technology.
 
Once 1080p HD saturates the US market, and Bluray players fall in price, they WILL see enough reason to go with Bluray.
 
I think it will be mostly about codecs in the future, not physical media.

A 720p movie can perfectly fit in a DVD5 with a very good quality. A 1080p movie can fit on a DVD9 in the same way.

If this RedRay codec is real, it seriously kicks H.264's butt. And I thought H.264 was hot.

For the moment, it [RedRay] sounds like a scam. :bleh:


P.S. I also thought that the HVX was hot but then this billionaire dude went nuts.
 
Hehe.... When you go camping 5 days a year, you want to get away from it all. When you camp 75 days a year, you sometimes miss your movie collection. :wink: That night I watched Batman Begins @ 1080.

I am not saying that Bluray sucks or is lame. I think Bluray will be successful. I'm just saying that after Bluray, the model will move toward network distribution and HDD or solid-state storage. I mean, look - when I was a punk working at the pizza shop at 15, half my paltry check every week went to buying shiny new CDs. I had racks of them that I worshiped and treasured and played all the time. Now I have all my music on my desktop, with not a jewel case in sight. There is a model for this type of change.

I hear ya on the music thing. I also bought a sh*t load of CD's up until a few years ago (I still have about 2,000 of them). And I also ripped them to a hard drive array (I now have about 1.5 Tb dedicated to just music). But I still think that when it comes to movies it is different. Yes, sure, I'll probably also rip them to a home media server when the size/price ratio of storage space makes it possible... but I still would want those movies as reference / backup.

By the way, I also do a ton of watching on my laptop since I travel a lot. But instead of carrying around a hard drive I just carry a Case Logic CD flip book that holds the 200 most recent movies that I bought but still haven't seen. I call this homework :shifty: (By the way, I would need a 2 Tb drive to hold them all... but I am too cheap to buy one just for that).


P.S. cool choice on the movie. Batman Begins is one of my favorites from that genre.
 
Unfortunately Blu-Ray has not been meeting industry expectations. Consumers can't see enough of a difference from SD DVDs.

Hi Mitch

I am a great fan of your posts. So I almost feel bad... but I have to ask you this: Are you basing your comments about Blu-ray on your opinion and gut feeling? Or are you following the DVD / Blu-ray industry by reading Home Media Magazine or some other authoritative publication? The reason I call you on this is because I was under the impression that Blu-ray was doing just fine, with libraries now even carrying it. In fact sales have been impressive considering the down-turn of consumer spending. It is my impression that this holliday season will be especially strong for the format considering all the titles that have been announced. And also, if you really believe that consumers can't tell the difference between Blu-ray and regular DVD (which they can!), then why bother with Red? Why not just use a DVX?
 
My comments are based in part on articles in The New York Times Business Section. I hope that Blu-Ray does better but according to these and other published reports they have not penetrated the market as fast as expected. And I can certainly tell the difference in the image but one reason cited in articles (apparently based on industry surveys) is that consumers could not see enough of a difference to warrant the additional purchase.
 
Unfortunately Blu-Ray has not been meeting industry expectations. Consumers can't see enough of a difference from SD DVDs.

Hmmm... As far as I can tell, the only industry players who are saying this are Toshiba and a few of their disgruntled partners. As of this month, Blu-Ray has been available for two years. Exactly which expectations are not being met? I will agree that Blu-Ray has fallen short of some of its original goals due to being launched later than intended and because of the format war with HD-DVD that made many consumers take pause. I think the generally higher price of Blu-Ray movies is also a show-stopper right now with higher prices on most consumer goods in general.

But with that in consideration, Blu-Ray is still outpacing DVD at its 2-year mark. By comparison, there are more titles available, more discs being sold, a current model player supporting all the latest audio codecs and best video output options available (HDMI 1.3a, 1080p24/60) is about $350 whereas a DVD player at the two year mark with full audio codec support and progressive scanning ability would have set most people back over $1000. ...That was 10 years ago too.

The current installed base of Blu-Ray players in north america is over 2X the projected installed base of DVD players at DVD's 2nd year mark. Much of that owing to the $399 PlayStation3 and that DVD players took longer to fall in price than Blu-Ray has. DVD did not take off and become the mainstream format until the beginning of its 4th year, when budget players fell below the $150 price point. I believe the same will happen with Blu-Ray and we're still about a year away from those prices.

IMO, the only real down-side to Blu-Ray is that BD titles typically carry a $7.50 premium over the standard DVD version of the same. The one thing that Blu-Ray is suffering from is the entrenched DVD format. Most consumers are not rushing out to replace any DVD titles with Blu-Ray, then again, no one ran out to replace any VHS tapes at first either.

As for consumers who can't see the difference, we saw this with DVD and then with HDTV. Lots of factors contribute to this. IMO a good 720p LCD or plasma set combined with a good upscaling DVD player is going to give visuals that are comparable to that same display paired with a mediocre Blu-Ray player. Especially when viewed at a distance. But with a current model 1080p DLP display and nice Blu-Ray player like the Panny DMP-BD50K or the Sony BDP-S360 [aka BDP-BX1], there is no comparison. Most consumers don't own a good 1080p display for their Blu-Ray players yet and most have only been subjected to poorly assembled store displays up to this point. Of course they don't see the difference. ...Same routine all over again.


I believe Blu-Ray will be around for a while as there is not a cheaper/better technology to replace it. I also believe that the next generation whenever it arrives will be a solid state technology.

With that statement, I agree 100%.
 
I also wanted to add that for myself and many other home theatre enthusiasts, one of the big selling points of Blu-Ray is the audio abilities. Those with good surround-sound setups will greatly appreciate the enhancements of Dolby TrueHD and DTS HD modes over DD5.1 and DDEX.
 
Unfortunately Blu-Ray has not been meeting industry expectations. Consumers can't see enough of a difference from SD DVDs.

I believe Blu-Ray will be around for a while as there is not a cheaper/better technology to replace it. I also believe that the next generation whenever it arrives will be a solid state technology.

When the price of Blu-Ray disks is as low as DVD's then it will be mainstream. At this point the prices are way too high for most people to justify purchasing them.

I am going for it as a back up medium for video data. Just wondering which burner to buy? The new LG 6X burner looks like the best buy right now but would love to hear from others. There was an excellent article I read the other day on how dangerous archiving on hard drives could be. From what I read the data can decay over a period of one to two years even if the mechanics of the drives still work. Not good. And data tape backup for me right now seems too expensive.
 
Jeff, you can check The New York Times. I like Blu-Ray and I'm all for higher quality delivery systems. But with some players as inexpensive as $150, the penetration of players or titles has not been as great as expected. Also, DVD sales are down for the first time ever as that market has now matured. The DVD market had been growing by double-digit percentages every year for the last decade, but this year there was a drop (I think it was 5 or 7 percent).

Again, this is from the NYT and other reputable sources. It's not something I'm inclined to debate with you. I don't believe everything I read, but I do believe certain things from certain sources.
 
Not exactly the most unbiased of source considering Blu-Ray benefits Sony most directly. I thought Samsung was one of those brands you buy when you can't get Sony, Panasonic, JVC, etc.

Noah
 
I agree with those who are saying that the prices of Bluray discs are simply too high. Why are they priced higher than DVDs? It's silly, greedy, and foolish, IMO.

Also, the players are far, far more expensive than DVD players. Once BD players start selling for $99, they will flood households across the U.S.
 
Back
Top