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  • Hey all, just changed over the backend after 15 years I figured time to give it a bit of an update, its probably gonna be a bit weird for most of you and i am sure there is a few bugs to work out but it should kinda work the same as before... hopefully :)

Will people buy REDs in 2009 with EPIC and SCARLET around?

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cinemano

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Im just curious how the RED will sell.. with a 5K 100mb/s epic around and a Scarlet at 3K for 3K... :)
 
I'd still pick up 2 more reds rather than an epic... because I don't need the extra features of the Epic...but I do need more than the scarlet...

Simple... there's a massive gap in between the scarlet and the epic... a gap you could land a plane in.

I'll probs get my red upgraded sensorwise... but getting 2 more reds to shoot multicam with alongside the 1 I've got... that's an attractive idea.
 
Yes, they will.

If going the Epic route, you will have 3 times the data for throughput and storage, so if you have a setup with 4 editing stations, on a shared storage, say the Xsan or other cluster storage, it really becomes a matter, why or why not going to Epic...

That data-bandwith alone is my main problems going all the way up...

It is not that expensive for one camera, but you have to think the through the whole workflow; from shooting, to restoring it back from an archive....

sincerly Helge Tjelta, Norway
 
Red One is still going to be a 4K 35mm camera for only $17,500! It will sell. How many people can afford to strap a $40K Epic to the bumper of a stunt vehicle in a car chase?
 
I think there is still a lot we don't know about Mr. Jannard's long-term strategy and plan. Remember their mantra "We reserve the right to change camera specs at any time". I think it is safe to assume that the RED team and Mr. Jannard in particular are both smart and savvy enough to maintain a reasonable price/value proposition for all three core camera bodies. Without making any specific predictions, EPIC will probably have greater than 5K resolution, higher frame rates at higher resolutions, improved audio and monitoring options including perhaps broadcast quality 1080p 4:4:4 live out.

Scarlet will most likely be handicapped with a lack of core RED ONE and EPIC features and lack of expandability. This is all BASIC product-line planning and marketing 101 and I don't think we should expect RED to handle these matters any differently. They are NOT going to release a $3,000 body that is only marginally less valuable than their $17,500 camera body nor are they going to release a $35,000 body that is only marginally better (for most users) than the $17,500 model.

My prediction is that all three products will generate identical revenue streams for RED. That is, they will sell 10 times as many Scarlets as EPICS (at least), and twice as many RED ONE's as EPICS. They will sell the fewest number of EPICS but at twice the price and higher add-on total those revenues will equal the RED ONE and Scarlet. EPIC however, will probably end up being their most profitable offering and therefore likely to get the most support.

Just my two cents worth. And will be fun to read in a few years as I could be totally off-base. :)

-shooter
 
shooter said:
Scarlet will most likely be handicapped with a lack of core RED ONE and EPIC features and lack of expandability.
Click to expand...

Hi,

If scarlet is handicapped it won't be better than cameras like the EX1 its main target market. Maybe Red sells all the cameras it can sell @ $17,500then sells 100 x that with cameras costing $3000.

Stephen
 
To three different needs, three able cameras; a brilliant hope for shooters!
 
I'm down converting 4k to 2k / HD and even down to SD, I can't see for the life of me why you'd need 5k.
Unless your doing a big film and you want to move around in the frame and output in 4k? .. only then will you even think about 5 k acquisition.

But then again, everything changes with time
 
RE: Scarlett, Epic, RED ONE ...

RE: Scarlett, Epic, RED ONE ...

Scarlett will sell incredibly well - it will be smaller, have an incredible Price::Performance ratio, and be the pocket/ backup crash cam of choice for many a opro, and the A Cam of many people pooting about, making their own personal films. Also look for the Scarlett to take over the porn industry (yeah, its gonna happen - and with a name like that???) We should expect about 150,000 cameras worldwide by mid 2010 - with strong demand for more growing steadily.

RED will still sell very well (I suspect top out at 9,000 cameras in the wild by 2010) with a variety of sensors installed (old mysterium, Mysterium X, probably something else Jim & Co are coming up with as well).

Epic will go slow at first as it will take a while for the early adopters to gain momentum behind it, but you will see about 2500 epics basically populating premium rental houses, studios, and a few individuals graced with one by the end of 2010.

so with a back of the envelope accounting of the business:
Scarlett- ~$450,000,000
Red one- ~$210,000,000
Epic - ~ $125,000,000
accessories ~$75,000,000

so all in all about a $860,000,000 revenue stream for the next two years or so. Not bad... not bad at all for "vaporware" or a "scam" - even if the margin is only %14! ~$120million - not bad!
 
My prediction on how well the cameras will sell will be partly based on the post production.

I am sure by next year this time Apple, Adobe or some other vendor will have some form of native support (for decent affordable price) or easy workflow which will make the decision to purchase the camera a whole lot easier.
 
Sure, I have been renting RED's from Owner/Operators. The more producers want to shoot with RED the demand will be there.
 
zak forrest said:
I just hope that we can upgrade the Red body to be lighter like the Epic
Click to expand...

Heh. That's the one Epic feature I desperately want. I wonder how plausible it is. Fitting the functionality of the Red One into a smaller body would almost certainly require replacing some boards. But I suspect Epic's smaller size and Scarlet's size and price are both enabled by Red building a custom ASIC to do things the Red One does with a larger number of high-end FPGAs. If that's the case, it might not cost all that much to replace several boards in the Red One with one board that does more.

Although if you're replacing the boards and the body, and if Red is going to have a sensor upgrade next year as well... there wouldn't actually be anything left of the original camera. At that point the most sensible way for Red to keep its upgradability promise might just be to offer a trade-in. (Send in your Red One for 30% off your Red Two, or whatever.)

It will certainly be interesting to see how things unfold.
 
With the directors and DPs I have worked with... all of them would love to have the ability to overcrank without having to shoot windowed. Overcranking at 5k or even faster at 4k is going to be a huge selling point.
 
broadex said:
When do you thing we will get the Scarlet's ~this year?
Click to expand...

NAB 09 at best... (will the red team take the bait and smash the prevailing wisdom with some new and awesome answer)?:)

Personally, I am already putting cash back for the Epic as we speak. That is if it turns out to fit my needs and Brook's Epic Sensor/ Ergonomic Threads even though he would laugh at me for using it mainly as handheld camera-- but I do a variety of work as well. :)

Count me in for 1 to 3 Scarlet's as well please.
 
I think the best way to keep the Red One valuable is if Red offers sensor and chip upgrades every couple of years.

But then again, Red One is essentially a really great 2K (or 3K filmout) camera right now, and there will be 2K jobs in the pipeline for years to come.
 
Sales of the Red One will all come down to wether or not the industry accepts the post production workflow. If Scarlet is based on the same RAW workflow, then that is going to be good for the Red One market because Reds will become ubiquitous due to the price point, and post production houses will be forced to embrace Red RAW workflow as a result, which will make Red a de facto industry standard. That is going to get a lot of people who were thinking of buying a Red off of the fence, and a lot of Red Ones and Epics are going to be sold as a result.
 
Let's talk about the beauty of the lineup... 3K (2/3" sensor) at $3K. 4K (4.5K at 2.40:1) with a full frame sensor for $17.5K. 5K (with lots of secret sauce and surprises) with a full frame sensor for $40K. But ALL of them shoot REDCODE. In a few weeks there will be full support for multiple platforms in post. The same file type in each camera. The same workflow for each camera. And the same accessories (mostly) for each camera.

Jim
 
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