What will *you* rent it for? REVISITED

[Finner]

if you're that confident about this prognostication, then why not collect the 110% refund and buy one of these $10,000 ebay red bodies...they are certain to be only lightly used, and it will save 75% off the original investment. i'm guessing that it will probably take that long, until fall or thereabouts, until we have an affordable and bomb-proof workflow, anyway.

I think you missed the part of my post where I mentioned that I felt I could make 10k by fall with the camera. That along with establishing our company as the key red company in town makes it worth it to me.

the standard day rate for experienced shooters in my town is around $500, sometimes they come with a camera and gear, sometimes they don't-

Holy crap is that low. I would not get out of bed for that rate. Please don't take offence but I question how "experienced" a DP is that would take that rate. Kind of an insult.

i just don't see an investment in a RED camera as a poor investment looming on the horizon. if it's going to sit on a shelf, then yes, it's a bad investment. but if you're gonna shoot the damn thing, regardless of your reasons--business, pleasure, to amp up your skill set, whatever--then there's nothing to fear, and there's nothing gained by waiting on the arrival of those $10k bodies, which may or may not materialize.

I am a production company owner so I see what you are saying. I am only pointing out that people with no contacts or current work will not all of a sudden be a DP or make any money as a rental house just by owning a red. By fall there will be a bunch of people that have purchased reds thinking that would be the case and after adding up the 1 or 2 rentals they have had a big "RED" e-bay fire sale will ensue. That is when I will buy my second or even third camera.

 

[Michael Hastings]

You make the faulty assumption in that you assume everybody owning a RED will be renting the camera.

I am only pointing out that people with no contacts or current work will not all of a sudden be a DP or make any money as a rental house just by owning a red. By fall there will be a bunch of people that have purchased reds thinking that would be the case and after adding up the 1 or 2 rentals they have had a big "RED" e-bay fire sale will ensue. That is when I will buy my second or even third camera.

I doubt that more than 5% or so of the HVX200s sold - which I believe numbers in the 10s of thousands - get rented. They are used by the owners - individual shooters, small production companies, corporate departments, etc. to produce material either for someone else or for their own content and the cost of the camera is either included in their rate or as part of their normal equipment investment. Probably a large percentage of those can easily afford the ~ $5K to $6K per year over 5 year amortization that a RED package with say Nikon manual or Birger mount/EOS lenses would cost.

I've purchased 7 or 8 professional/broadcast cameras in the past 25 years (not counting prosumer cameras like the HVXor Sony V1). RED will be the cheapest no matter how you look at it and in terms of real, inflation-adjusted dollars - cheapest by half.

I agree that RED cameras will become available at much lower price than the sale price, but for other reasons. Of the fifteen or so people that I know personally that have ordered REDs, all are either people that make a decent income with their HVX, HDCAM, Z1, F900 or whatever and can still justify the relatively low cost of RED even if it isn't a huge winner/PanaSony killer. So I don't see it as 90% or some big number of people are going to have RED regret and therefore a fire sale.

Used RED prices are going to be low because virtually every video camera comes out at a high price initially, then new price drops substantially after six months as the initial high demand is fulfilled, new competing products come out, etc. Then used prices have to drop to 30 or 40% less than the new new price because that is what used video cameras go for. So if you were an early purchaser, after six months or a year you can only get half or less of what you paid for it. RED will probably be no different. RED's nontransferable warranty policy further degrades the likely used price of a six or nine month old camera. (Obviously, after a year it won't matter.)

Used prices will probably drop even further when, for example RED comes out next year with an improved sensor and other improvements and sells the camera for the same price or less. Even if they offer an upgrade - at 3,4,5,$6K or whatever it would further push the used price down. Not to mention when competitors increase the bang for the buck of their $20K cameras so even though 4K may still exceed the top end performance of say the new $20K P2-based Varicam or Bluray-based $30K F900 (if those companies really perceive RED as a threat), the gap will be less and the ENG form factor - which works better for a lot of applications will push people in that direction. Ultimately RED will have to up the ante in terms of features, worldwide service network, and packaging. Or they will have to lower the price. Or it will remain a niche market, couple thousand units per year camera.

This is not a knock on RED. RED is a perfect camera for us underwater people. In the past we have had to settle for either compact sized (50 pound total package size or less) prosumer fixed lens cameras with clunky wide adapter lenses, etc. or cumbersome (70 to 100 lbs+ total package sized) broadcast cameras. The only reasonable sized high quality alternative was film - which almost no one but the very top guys shoot because of the expense and major hassles it involves. RED gives us 4K, 2.5 hour recording, and lens solutions that are extremely high quality with no gears via the Birger mount at ridiculously low prices. ($650 for a Canon 10-22, or $1500 for a super high quality 14mm prime. Versus $30K for a superwide B4 zoom lens)

The point is, yes REDs will probably be available for $10-12K used by year end. But so what? That has been the way of the pro video world for all of my adult life.

 

[vincelucero]

What? 250-300 a day for an HVX? Nobody pays that. I thought we were talking about single-camera owner rentals. An HVX goes for $125 to $175 tops. The $250 is a list price for big established places that would discount the price anyway (or even rent it away for free) depending on what else you rent. If you don't believe me take a look at these two listings to give you an idea regarding the HVX:

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/crs/579622649.html

http://classifieds.myspace.com/inde...d&classifiedID=11827206&catID=18&subCatID=159

Also, I don't buy the 10,000 cities argument. Most of the rental action occurs in a few spots in this country (US). For the life of me I couldn't think of anyone wanting to rent a Red for anything other than an occational indie feature (who couldn't afford a red workflow anyway in the first place) in a place like Canton, OH. So once there are 5000 reds you know a whole bunch of them will end up in the same place. Remember, at one point there were only four cars in the US... and two still managed to get into an accident with each other. :umm:

Here in HI, I rent my HVX for $350, $550 with Brevis and Nikons.

 

[Joel Kaye]

So I don't see it as 90% or some big number of people are going to have RED regret and therefore a fire sale.

warning - punditry ahead:

I don't think RED will be 50% off in one year UNLESS a competitor provides a better solution for 35mm DOF acquisition at similar or lower prices.

A reservation does not a sale make. (If Finner's premise is wrong then a big RED devaluation will not occur)

I just don't think most people who are really stretching to buy this camera are actually going to pull the trigger and do it. So 500 mistaken fanboys are NOT going to blow out their cameras for cheap on eBay. They are going to pass when their number comes up in the first place. The camera is big and heavy, the accessories are expensive, the workflow is shoot an hour and render for 20 hours. Everything is offline/online. You've got to really want this thing to put up with all that. I don't think it's what most people signed up for.

But even if you DID get in over your head - at $100 a day you could cover a $1000 a month loan payment in 10 days. Just keep that thing working at pay it off like a car.

Used HVX200's weren't 40% off a year later and there were A LOT of those purchased in a HYPER competitive space. Now they probably are 40% off.. but a quick check of eBay revealed very few used HVX's for sale.

MORE ARMCHAIR QUARTERBACKING:

I don't forsee any need for RED to drop prices on the RED ONE. Why? People who need what RED has become are somewhat price insensitive. There ain't that much price to drop really and it's not going to increase sales. Why do it? Raising prices is more logical in my mind. The one caveat being, someone actually beats them at their own game - digital cinema - for less money. Then you could see the $10,000 RED on eBay. And Finner's will be one of them because something truly better came along.

I don't think Sony will price compete. I think Sony's strategy is and should be - yeah, we're $250k more... but we're the best. Again - big movies are price inelastic. RED is really servicing million dollar movie market, music videos, TV commercials and anything shooting film that's lower budget. How many of those get made? Worldwide, probably a fair number and it's probably good business.

I could see 10,000 RED's in service with none of them belonging to delusional fanboys.

 

[planet e]

I think you missed the part of my post where I mentioned that I felt I could make 10k by fall with the camera. That along with establishing our company as the key red company in town makes it worth it to me.

Holy crap is that low. I would not get out of bed for that rate. Please don't take offence but I question how "experienced" a DP is that would take that rate. Kind of an insult.

nah, i didn't miss that part--i was just questioning the wisdom of making $10K against saving the very same alleged $7.5K price drop on the bodies, by not working at all and just picking up a cheaper camera. you basically are working mighty hard to make $3K, by these calculations, actually $2.5K, to be more precise.

i don't take offense at what the market supports. i can--and have--hired very good and very experienced shooters for $500/day, at least one of them an Emmy winner--and he, by the way, was not insulted, because that *is* in line with the standard day rate, i wasn't cheaping out. i'm just relaying the realities of this marketplace, your mileage may vary....

i do believe that these days of price appreciation will close quickly and that the RED will depreciate--that's what cameras do, and RED will be no exception in the long view. but i do think this will take a little longer than people expect, because the current waiting period will last another 4-5 months.

i also agree that more people will pass on their cameras initially, rather than buy them and suddenly unload them at fire sale prices...my 2nd reserved RED has a question mark next to it, until the very workflow issues you raise, show some signs of being resolved. i cannot pass up the chance at the first reserved camera, however, in spite of the limitations. it will raise the bar for what i currently can do.

 

[Jason Ing]

that's just asinine. did you personally conduct a thorough survey of every red customer and then somehow objectively judge whether what they have created or will create is not art?

But let's face it a lot of the RED customers are addicts not artists. Addicted to getting the latest gadget... sad but true.

 

[Finner]

nah, i didn't miss that part--i was just questioning the wisdom of making $10K against saving the very same alleged $7.5K price drop on the bodies, by not working at all and just picking up a cheaper camera. you basically are working mighty hard to make $3K, by these calculations, actually $2.5K, to be more precise.

Maybe this time you missed the part where I said it would establish us as the key red company in our city. I personally do not see myself having to work that hard for $2.5k as it is rentals. What you seem to not understand is that this is camera rental income there is also my day rate (not anywhere in the zone of $500 to direct/dp) along with that there are also profits in post as well. I would recomend you do not rent out yourself with the camera for $500 a day.

i don't take offense at what the market supports. i can--and have--hired very good and very experienced shooters for $500/day, at least one of them an Emmy winner--and he, by the way, was not insulted, because that *is* in line with the standard day rate, i wasn't cheaping out. i'm just relaying the realities of this marketplace, your mileage may vary.....

Here a focus puller makes more then that. This bussiness must be very tough in Colorado. Every qualified DP I know in any northamerican city makes $1500+ a day for even local commercials.

i also agree that more people will pass on their cameras initially, rather than buy them and suddenly unload them at fire sale prices...my 2nd reserved RED has a question mark next to it, until the very workflow issues you raise, show some signs of being resolved. i cannot pass up the chance at the first reserved camera, however, in spite of the limitations. it will raise the bar for what i currently can do.

If you and Joelnet are correct in thinking that many of the reservations by people that are not ready for this level of camera and do indeed decide not to go through with the purchase then I agree 100% with both of you. I have thought the exact same thing, I am just unsure on which way many of those people will go.

 

[Ken Willinger]

I've purchased 7 or 8 professional/broadcast cameras in the past 25 years (not counting prosumer cameras like the HVXor Sony V1). RED will be the cheapest no matter how you look at it and in terms of real, inflation-adjusted dollars - cheapest by half.

I don't think it is 1/2 the cost of a broadcast camera. I bought my Sony D600WS Betacam SP camera for about $32K new and about $15K for the glass. That's about $47K. The RED at $17.5 cannot be compared because it is non functional as just a body without VF etc. So once you add functionality to the point where the body is usable like the D600 was out of the box, you're close to the $30K figure. I'll be using a B4 mount Fujinon HD 13x4.5 lens with the RED. That's another $20K. I think we're looking at the same cost as a broadcast camera.

 

[planet e]

and finner, i think you're completely mis-reading my $500/day comment...i was saying that $500/day gets you a guy with a Z1 (the Emmy fella was shooting a triathlon broadcast for me with a Z1) or an H1 and that i didn't believe that RED rentals would fall to that level, apropos of the original question driving this thread, which is how low will this all go, given that the pricing of RED has de-stabilized the existing market place for high-end rentals. which then moved to a discussion that RED cameras prices would drop precipitously in lock-step with the cheapie rental market. $500 gets you a shooter, not a DP.

i have no plans or intentions to rent a RED at those prices, but there seems to be implicit fear in this thread of the rental market dropping to those levels--that's what i was addressing with that comment--you're taking it in a different direction than it was intended.

 

[Rich Schaefer]

Guys, get a decent rate for your cameras please! You have a world class imager!!!

I am going to get pissed when I start hearing about "So&So" will rent me his Red for $500 and I am supposed to match that price.

Why bring down the market???

 

[donatello b]

" Every qualified DP I know in any northamerican city makes $1500+ a day for even local commercials."

it all comes down to the circle you work in ... corporate doesn't pay as much as "film" or commercial projects ... there's low, med , hi budget commercials , same with corporate , same with features .. you work your way up the pay scale ...
one might start off at 500 day for awhile then move to 750 , 1000, 1500 ,2000 , 2500 etc a day over a period of time - (at some point you decide to move to the next $$ amount)

in SF area the corporate rate has been 1200-1500 day (including betacam camera since early 1990's.. today the included camera has changed) appprox 6-750 day rate for cameraman , 6-750 day for camera = from what my friends tell me ...

IMO there will be Red circles .. there will be low , med & high budget productions using Red ... the owners that are going for the low end will not get a high end budget ... IMO with Reds being abundant by next year Producers will expect/demand better quality for the same rate they were paying before Red was in the game ...

 

[Davis]

This thread is depressing. I can shoot glamour nudes and make more than some of these very talented DPs who have spent years in the business. ( I am not joking)

Makes me wonder if I should even pursue working on films.

People giving away their cameras for such cheap rental prices makes me sick. That manager job at Wendys might be a better choice with all these desperate people all over the place.

 

[Finner]

Davis stills shooters have been making more then DP's for as long as I have been in the business.

 

[Mitch Deoudes]

This thread is depressing. I can shoot glamour nudes and make more than some of these very talented DPs who have spent years in the business. Makes me wonder if I should even pursue working on films.

Oh, man - that *is* depressing. Making $100-200k a year to shoot pictures of naked women? It's a wonder the suicide rate isn't higher.

I kid, of course... but that's sort of the way things go in a lot of creative fields, no? The cooler the job, the more competition, the lower the rates for the average schmo (and the higher for the rock stars). Actors, directors, musicians, writers - even athletes. It's pretty hard getting paid to do something people think is fun... And usually public perception is skewed by the few big-money types who do make it.

Now, perhaps you can expand on this whole cash-for-shooting-nekkid-women thing? :innocent:

 

[Mark B.]

Supply and demand has a tendency to bring prices down, but there's a point where the return is not worth the effort. I don't know if $500 per day is worth the effort. I guess if I was really hungry or incredibly bored then maybe I'd rent out me and my gear for that price, if it wasn't a physically arduous project; I'm not going to slog along dirt trails for $500 per day. Also the rate would have to be flexible for lengthy projects compared to a one-day project.

Because of the demand right now, I'd expect $1500 per day in the short term. If I had more experience then I'd expect to get a lot more than that. After demand dies out, I'll have to make myself a nice demo reel to get paid that amount, and even then I'm not sure if it could be sustained. Then again, my expectations and reality have not always come together as planned.

 

[Jeff Kilgroe]

This thread is really screwed up. Many people are not taking the "rental" aspect literally enough. We're talking about renting the camera itself (or that's what I thought), not whoring ourselves out with it as DP / DIT / someone's bitch.

I would expect a basic RED kit consisting of the body, CF module, power source, and maybe a few mounting accessories (like the base production pack) and the LCD, to rent for about $800/day. Not including lenses, EVF, other gear... And that does not include any person as an operator, DP, etc..

Obviously some will rent that kit for less... That's their problem and they're being stupid (IMNSHO). Why would anyone want to rent for less than that? It's a $22K kit for what I have listed and that doesn't even get you ready to shoot.

People willing to whore themselves out for $500~$1000/day and that includes the RED kit plus that person's services? They obviously don't value themselves very much. Or they're in high demand and they can guaranty themselves that they will be able to do this 5 days a week all year long.

Anyway, I have no plans to rent out my RED gear. I don't have any desire to whore myself out as a camera operator or DIT so someone else can tell me what to do or shoot with my camera. But I'm also keen on saving a buck when I can and if someone wants to rent me a decent RED kit and also be my DIT for $500 to $1000 / day, I won't complain. Actually, if they're going to start out with that sort of rate, I'm sure I can talk them down even further, I'm not a bad negotiator. ...I suppose I could even try my luck on craigslist -- Wanted: RED camera + DIT for 3-day shoot. Willing to pay $400/day!!!! I bet some desperate soul might bite the hook.

 

[Matthew Verkler]

I suppose I could even try my luck on craigslist -- Wanted: RED camera + DIT for 3-day shoot. Willing to pay $400/day!!!! I bet some desperate soul might bite the hook.

The horror . . . the horror . . .

 

[Matthew Verkler]

Another movie quote, in the immortal words of Vic Morrow as the sheriff in "Dirty Mary Crazy Larry":

"It's the driver, not the car."

Dumb-ass and exploitative clients either don't understand this or don't care, and will yield to the siren song of the $400/day Red and DIT super combo. I want whomever is handling the data to be a top person. It's like VHS dubs to the client in days gone by: it's the most important job, because if it's screwed up, EVERYTHING before it is meaningless and wasted.

And of course the $500/day DP and Red package would fall into the same category - that becomes a REALLY expensive $500 because a client is paying MONEY to have something be screwed up. Adding insult to injury.

(sorry for the overuse of all-caps for EMPHASIS)

Signed,
Trying Not To Whore Myself Out As Someone's Bitch. Tryin' Hard. Whoring is okay as long as I am in control.

EDIT:

Red's price is not trivial. I would think that the price alone would separate the serious from the less-so. Who would spend this much without knowing what they're going to use it for, without some kind of plan that they put some thought into? If there are large numbers of casual buyers, I will be happy to take some Reds off their hands in six months. I don't think such people will have a long-term effect on the prices we can charge clients.

My Red will be used mainly to support my company's projects, but I will make it available for rent if there is down-time. I won't rent my Red to anybody without sending a qualified person with it, or making sure the renter is truly qualified to use it. Qualified will not come at bargain-basement prices.

I totally agree with Finner on his strategy: the sooner one starts with getting up to speed on Red, the further they are in the marketplace. Red especially is going to require trust on the part of a client, trust in the DP and trust that everything will go well. Clients will trust people with demonstrated experience with this new end-to-end workflow, so the time to start is now. I won't offer our Red services externally until we are fully up to speed and have charted the pitfalls fairly well.

 

[Gavin Greenwalt]

I think body w/ no power or storage is going to settle in at $500 if all 3,000+ go out. Without a mandatory attached DIT.

RED is hovering around the $750-800 (body only) mark right now and it's still a very limited market. The price is only going to go down.

The big rental houses can't drop below probably about $200 before they lose money (even if someone donated a camera to them for free). So I figure $300 profit per rental is the magic number.

You can say "Ohhh but you're getting 4k for that price!"
Sure. But I'm not paying the rental house for film, telecine and post. They aren't losing any money that they need to recoup.

The sales pitch is. "We will charge what it costs to rent an Aaton III and you're going to save a boatload on the back end."

You drop the cost of operation for the customer without losing any money yourself and you have a high demand item. Not to mention they're in your shop picking up $10,000 in grip, support etc etc etc.

 

[planet e]

man, i should have never used the phrase "$500/day"--all that did was get latched onto, out of context, and feed a fear frenzy.

once more, with feeling...i was referring to a shooter and a Z1U, to indicate that it made no sense for RED to rent for the same as a day rate for a Z1U. it was actually intended to stave off the fear that a RED would rent for $500/day, because it was illogical and not what the market currently supports. instead, the mere phrase "$500/day" seems to be sucking into people's brains like a lamprey eel and tapping into this deep well of anxiety. sheesh.

i don't care if people rent their REDs for $500/day. let em. our clients work with us because they want to work with us, period.

if hungry people want to work their tails off to move up the food chain, let 'em. either they'll succeed and more power to 'em, or else--more likely-- they'll find out how hard it is and quit, neither of which affects me or my business.