3D Spin at CES

[Phil Bates]

I found these two news stories ironic.

First, on Foxnews.com:

CES Preview: 5 Big Trends to Watch

3. 3D Is Dead
CES is still first and foremost about television. Last year, the buzz was about 3D TVs, but so far they've failed to catch the public's attention. The main reason is that the 3D movie experience doesn't translate well from the theater to the living room....


Then on CNN:

5 Things we learned at CES

1. 3-D isn't going away
Disappointing sales of TVs have not deterred technology and media companies from pursuing 3-D products. We saw 3-D TVs, laptops, cameras, movies, games, portable devices and picture frames.

For what it's worth,
Phil

 

[Jeff Kilgroe]

3D is not dead, it's here to stay... It's just another feature that manufacturers can cram into their TVs. I do think the 3D fad will wear off of Hollywood by the middle of next year. 3D movies will continue to get made at a steady pace, just as they were being made for the past 5 years or so. However, I think the Avatar-induced 3D rush will draw to a close and studios won't feel the need to shoot every damn film in 3D anymore.

One thing does seem to be clear from the CES product showings is that quad-HD and higher resolution displays are back on track after the industry took its 3Detour. High resolution and "retina" displays are all the rage on handheld or mobile devices. Computer displays are set to go super high res now, as they should have done long ago.

My prediction for the next 5 years... 3D will still be the same as it is now, which is the same as it was 30 years ago when the transition to polarized glasses from anaglyphic happened. However, 4K probably won't be enough when 1080p is only going to be "good enough" for handheld devices. In 5 years, most every TV on a store shelf over 36" will be 3840x2160 resolution. Kinda like 1080p is now.

 

[Tonaci Tran]

Red Epic 3d rigs will change this whole 3d game imo. All of this technology requires mindblowing 3d content.

 

[Phil Bates]

Consumer and Prosumer 3D cameras are making a splash, I'll be curious to see if that has a trickle down effect on creating demand for 3D TV's/hardware.

P

 

[Jeff Kilgroe]

The way I see it, TV manufacturers are going to make all their TVs 3D capable no matter what. Significant demand or not, the technology is here, it's cheap and already being incorporated into their top end models now. No option to buy without. I can order a 50" Panny VT25 plasma from Amazon with free shipping for under $1900.

3D is not going anywhere. And I think the higher resolution displays are going to play another role in 3D tech in the next year or two. There's also electronically switching polarizer films and masks that are hitting the market now, meaning that TV's will be able to mask each frame of video as needed for polarized glasses, rather than being stuck with interlaced polarization patterns. Now we can do full frame, interlaced, checkerboard, etc.. With full frame polarization switching -- probably mainstream within 2 years, the active shutter glasses will go extinct.

DLP systems have had a polarizer wheel as part of the design for years. No one, has ever offered one though. Kinda weird. Probably because DLP are all but extinct for consumer TVs now that 3D took off.

 

[Ketch Rossi]

3D dead??

Yeah right, that is why several Major Hollywood Movies, as well as many other Major Movies form other countries, Documentaries, Commercials, Music Videos
and Broad cast events, are all getting booked like you can not imagine for 3D.

We now have 3 Atom Rigs coming in and over half Dozen Epic cameras, and will possibly end up with 10 Atom rigs by the end of the year by the looks of
things, and we are but one company, granted with lots of connections, but one company, and we can't seem to be able to get in off gear to meet the
demand for 3D, imagine the Big Boys, and Big rental companies?

3D is not here to stay, 3D has never left, just that now has reached a point of great technological advancement and capable of offering incredible
State of the Art capabilities and functionalities in a very Compact package, thanks to RED and ET, the Epic/Atom combo is just a Killer 3D combo!!

 

[Rich Schaefer]

What needs to happen is content delivery at home. Soon cable and satellite companies will be bringing 3d into our homes. When that happens (I think this year) we will see a sharp rise in 3d displays being sold and a bigger demand for 3d shows. I can't wait for all of it!

My 2cents.

Prost,
Rich

 

[Peter Salvia]

I agree whole heartedly that 3D is here to stay. However, what's unclear to me is how current 3D post workflows and deliveries would work on glasses-less 3D displays. 90% of everyone I show my Nuke stereoscopic work to immediately looks at the glasses and laughs; no one wants to wear headgear to watch a movie.

In other words, is all the pain-staking 3D roto work all for not when delivering to glasses-free displays? And will content currently being acquired in REDcode using 3D rigs (like ET's Quasar) require additional post wiggle-and-tickle to be ready for the glasses-free display?

 

[Sven Seynaeve]

The funniest of the whole story is that it's a quiet weird they can make judgements now after such a short period of time.

Me, myself I was quiet amazed when my dealer called I could get a new Sony beamer with 3d for under 5K , SO SOON! WITH ALMOST NO CONTENT AVAILABLE;

I could never had thought they would see a benefit in offering it so fast.
This was by the time I just started enjoying the HD beamer I had bought a year before.;.

I can't remember of anything showing up in the market so fast.

With the internet people just start to seem to be unable to let things happen like they used to happen.


Consumers are getting served before we can even figure out a way how to get all the gear working , and achieving good results..

We've seen the HD hype at trade shows long before it really took off.

One of the regional channels I'm working for is even still on SD...wtf;;;


maby there's just a little to much going on these days....

things get scary sometimes.... we're already waiting for the next thing to show up ...

I think we really need some standards and some agreements on where it is taking us from here....

 

[Jeff Kilgroe]

What needs to happen is content delivery at home. Soon cable and satellite companies will be bringing 3d into our homes. When that happens (I think this year) we will see a sharp rise in 3d displays being sold and a bigger demand for 3d shows. I can't wait for all of it!

DirecTV already has 6 HD channels and one of them shows new release PPV movies in 3D. There's Discovery and History channel content and a few other things. It's a start. Last year at NAB, Adobe was demoing 3D via Flash and Microsoft was showing 3D via SilverLight for streaming and talking about Netflix and others using it. But now we're seeing that many are dumping Flash and Silverlight in favor of HTML5 and WebPM.

I don't know what other sat/cable providers are offering as I haven't paid attention. I just know about what I have and all the DirecTV 3D content is free, with the obvious exception of the PPV movies. I never really watch other than to just show someone the 3D on the Panny plasma. The 50" VT25 is my only 3D display right now and I spend most of my time staring at it doing color correction, in 2D.

I'm betting Apple will have 3D options available through iTunes by the end of this year. Possibly sooner rather than later... MacWorld is in two weeks and Apple didn't bother saving the Verizon iPhone announcement until then, they have bigger things to talk about -- or so I would imagine.

 

[Francesco Bonomo]

However, I think the Avatar-induced 3D rush will draw to a close and studios won't feel the need to shoot every damn film in 3D anymore.

Personally, I really hope so, but that's me. I'm not an expert in the 3D field and I'm not really interested in it, but from what I can see around me, by talking to cinematographers and directors (mostly in Europe and even more in Italy), it surely feels that way...then again, we don't really have studios as big as hollywood around here.

You guys may be interested in this article that was posted in the off topic section here. Interesting numbers...

 

[Derek S.]

5 years from now and only few selected films are shown theaters in 3D. More and more people are already choosing normal version over 3D if given an option.

 

[Jeff Coatney]

First, on Foxnews.com:

Then on CNN:

These two facts alone should be enough to discredit at least one argument.

 

[Paolo Tinari]

This will help define the scenario in one direction: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/technicolor-launching-3d-conversion-business-71626

 

[Francesco Bonomo]

This will help define the scenario in one direction: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/technicolor-launching-3d-conversion-business-71626

..which is funny, considering how the 2D-to-3D conversion process is not really liked by many in the industry, but I guess it makes sense, from Technicolor's point of view.
Another article from the Hollywood Reporter gives a more complete picture:

Study: Overpriced Tickets Could Kill Hollywood's 3D Box Office

From the article, published 4 days ago:

"Many people are over-excited by it. The danger is that industry players risk killing a golden goose by overselling and, in some cases, overpricing the 3D experience -- and by providing too much mediocre content that doesn’t do justice to the technology.”

"providing too much mediocre content", IMHO, applies perfectly to a LOT more than just 3D, anyway...

 

[Paolo Tinari]

..which is funny, considering how the 2D-to-3D conversion process is not really liked by many in the industry, but I guess it makes sense, from Technicolor's point of view.
Another article from the Hollywood Reporter gives a more complete picture:

Study: Overpriced Tickets Could Kill Hollywood's 3D Box Office

From the article, published 4 days ago:

"Many people are over-excited by it. The danger is that industry players risk killing a golden goose by overselling and, in some cases, overpricing the 3D experience -- and by providing too much mediocre content that doesn’t do justice to the technology.”


"providing too much mediocre content", IMHO, applies perfectly to a LOT more than just 3D, anyway...

I think they are aiming at (re) producing mass content for 3dtv, there the meaning of "mediocre" is diluted and the demand is bigger. Some librarian will buy the ticket.
And, at this stage, i think its more expensive having the press covering this announcemnt than setting up the "Conversion plants".
Cant wait to see the Brady bunch in the visual glory of Certifi3D

 

[Elsie N]

These two facts alone should be enough to discredit at least one argument.

3D has become a political issue?

 

[Francesco Bonomo]

I think they are aiming at (re) producing mass content for 3dtv

...sounds like a great idea....like when they convert black and white movies in color.....:rolleyes5:

 

[Keith Putnam]

I agree whole heartedly that 3D is here to stay. However, what's unclear to me is how current 3D post workflows and deliveries would work on glasses-less 3D displays... In other words, is all the pain-staking 3D roto work all for not when delivering to glasses-free displays? And will content currently being acquired in REDcode using 3D rigs (like ET's Quasar) require additional post wiggle-and-tickle to be ready for the glasses-free display?

Why would it be any different? Regardless of how it's displayed you still have to have different information fed to each eye. I wouldn't think that the general principles of stereography are much affected by display technology, though I'd love to hear in what ways I'm wrong.

That said, glassesless display tech is obviously essential for 3D home viewing to take off, and 3D home viewing taking off is essential for the long-term success of the 3D market.

 

[geoffboyle]

Simple facts...

It costs the manufacturers of TV from nothing to very little to change HD sets manufacture to 3D, in a year or so you will only be able to get 3D sets.

Studios make more money from 3D releases.

It's a business...