Panasonic's ALEXA killer?

[Alex G. Cohn]

It seems that what we have here is a fundamental disagreement. Not a lack of communication, but real differences in what some of us believe.

I believe without any doubt that Panasonic or Sony could have made a large-sensor HD prosumer camera with interchangeable lenses any time in the last 5 years. I am a big believer in "Where there's a will, there's a way." Some of you do not believe Sony or Panasonic had the R&D chops to do it. So we'll have to disagree on that point, since it's not something that can be settled here with conclusive, valid evidence.

In terms of whether Sony and Panasonic held back certain large-sensor prosumer HD cameras so as to protect their higher-end cameras, I believe they did. Some of you may disagree. Again, it's not something we can come to a conclusion on here, so we'll have to agree to disagree.

The technology just did not exist 5 years ago to do what you are talking about.

The only way to have affordable 35mm size sensors is with CMOS, and that technology is just barely catching up with where it needs to be to do video correctly.

The HVX200 hasn't even been out 5 years, and that camera can barely qualify as a 1080p camera with 1/3" chips.

The EX1 and Red One have only been out 3 years.

 

[Tom Lowe]

The technology just did not exist 5 years ago to do what you are talking about.

Amazing that a semi-retired sunglasses maker was able to do it from scratch, with a tiny team and no experience, in a short period of time. Seems unlikely to me that Sony and Panasonic could not have done it.

 

[Rick Burnett]

Amazing that a semi-retired sunglasses maker was able to do it from scratch, with a tiny team and no experience, in a short period of time. Seems unlikely to me that Sony and Panasonic could not have done it.

A tiny team of amazing engineers with the freedom to explore making an amazing camera with NO legacy technology holding them back and some pretty deep pockets.

It's not that they couldn't, but they may not have seen value in the risk. That's the problem with big companies, they don't take risks like smaller start-ups can.

Look at the camera that Greek guy is making all from off the shelf parts that records in raw. That's ONE person and it is pretty amazing.

Don't underestimate the passion of a single person. It's so much more powerful sometimes than a collective intelligence that's too big to move

 

[Tom Lowe]

It's not that they couldn't, but they may not have seen value in the risk.

So again, we are right back to where we started. Either they lacked the foresight to understand the market (incompetence) or they purposefully avoided fulfilling the desires of their customers for large-sensor HD cameras in order to protect other cameras in their product line. Either way, those are not business practices to be proud of, IMHO.

Since we seem to be chasing our tail here, I'll leave my arguments at that. :smile:

 

[Alex G. Cohn]

Amazing that a semi-retired sunglasses maker was able to do it from scratch, with a tiny team and no experience, in a short period of time. Seems unlikely to me that Sony and Panasonic could not have done it.

The point is nobody could have possibly made the camera you are talking about before Red did so 3 years ago, because the technology just did not exist to make it happen. The Red One came around just about the time that the technology to make the camera was becoming possible.

And Red was trying to hit a marketplace that the other companies weren't trying to hit.

You make it sound like the Sony people were a bunch of idiots for not making the EX1 a S35 sensor, but for the market that Sony was aiming the camera at, a S35 sensor probably would have been a mistake, even if the chips were affordable enough.

A S35 chip is not perfect for all applications, especially when you consider the limitations and costs of lenses at that size.

 

[Alex G. Cohn]

...or they purposefully avoided fulfilling the desires of their customers for large-sensor HD cameras in order to protect other cameras in their product line. Either way, those are not business practices to be proud of, IMHO.

Or they were making and selling the correct cameras to the markets they were trying to hit.

Just because you want a S35 sensor does not mean that everybody else in the world wants a S35 sensor.

 

[M Most]

A tiny team of amazing engineers with the freedom to explore making an amazing camera with NO legacy technology holding them back and some pretty deep pockets.

And no stockholders or board of directors to answer to, and no responsibility for public financial disclosures. Don't underestimate the value of that in developing an unproven product for an unproven market.

 

[Hrvoje Simic]

If the premise is incorrect, debate about the conclusion can last forever. No business decision in a corporation is ever based on a single factor. This discussion seems like it is based on a search for a single answer.


Some points:

- investments need numbers to justify r & d and production costs
- numbers are not in professional or high-end market
- large companies like this have obligations to current customers (equipment owners), future customers (people interested in products) and company owners (stock holders etc) - which means that corporate management is in constant push-pull between three sides
- in a large corporation “what is better for the customer” is not #1 priority


Regarding this camera - apart from a joke LCD, consistent for Panasonic cameras this size, and horrid product design, also consistent after DVX100...if sensor readout speed and smarter pixel play provide relatively "good enough" performance without major artifacts, Prores out of HDSDI might make this a relatively cool tool. In that case pricing is very “market friendly”.

What will be funny though is shooter on set typing an email on his phone on a better screen than the screen on his professional HD motion imaging camera, unless Panasonic goes wild and incorporates Samsung's 4” 16M AMOLED screen in production model...


Btw, efficiently compressed 24 Mbs h.264 gives better footage quality than HDV or 35 Mbs XDCAM.

 

[Craig W. Bickerstaff]

Regarding this camera - apart from a joke LCD, consistent for Panasonic cameras this size, and horrid product design, also consistent after DVX100...if sensor readout speed and smarter pixel play provide relatively "good enough" performance without major artifacts, Prores out of HDSDI might make this a relatively cool tool. In that case pricing is very “market friendly”.

What will be funny though is shooter on set typing an email on his phone on a better screen than the screen on his professional HD motion imaging camera, unless Panasonic goes wild and incorporates Samsung's 4” 16M AMOLED screen in production model...


Btw, efficiently compressed 24 Mbs h.264 gives better footage quality than HDV or 35 Mbs XDCAM.

Yeah the camera certainly is butt ugly however it is better looking than that 4k suitcase DALSA designed.

 

[Hrvoje Simic]

Sure...Origin had a Dumbo thing going on, but with Origin they had quite a bit of hardware to put in a camera body. At least they greatly improved with Evolution. Panasonic has smaller components to play with = more creativity for product designers.

 

[Chuck Z]

And no stockholders or board of directors to answer to, and no responsibility for public financial disclosures. Don't underestimate the value of that in developing an unproven product for an unproven market.

Probably the best reason why creative types shouldn't be discussing corporate finance on REDUSER.

 

[Rick Burnett]

How can you make any judgement on the LCD on the AF100 if they've not even shown the production part? From my understanding from Barry and Jan (product line manager I think) is that the new LCD is not ready yet to show, they have a temporary LCD on the prototype.

Just because these companies didn't decide to enter the S35 market doesn't make them incompetent. They were sticking with the sure win of a proven product that people wanted. There was NOTHING preventing any company from filling in that void where it was unknown what to expect. RED started in a whole new territory and took a risk.

Panasonic is opening the door at the lower end of the prosumer market at the moment and I think they are going to sell an amazing number of the AF100s. That said, *I* still cannot wait for the S35. But at least this thing seems to be a HUGE improvement over VDSLR technology!

But, it's still a huge unknown. We have the opinions of a few testers who say it's at 70% functionality. They acknowledge it is better, but only time will tell.

 

[Rudi Herbert]

Btw, efficiently compressed 24 Mbs h.264 gives better footage quality than HDV or 35 Mbs XDCAM.

I disagree with that 100%, it does not at all match my experience, and I own, shoot and post with several cameras recording each of those formats. Then again, this is not the point of this conversation.

And btw, 5 years ago, very, very, very few people were interested in a S35 sized digital sensor, as even the pioneers of digital cinematography, Lucas, Rodriguez and Cameron felt that their 2/3" cameras delivered more than en ough resolution for the big screen. Ironically, Cameron is still shooting on his F-950's and probably so is Lucas. Rodriguez moved up just recently. As a matter of fact, I would bet that the push for S35 sensors came from wanting to use all that beautiful cine glass and shallower DOF rather than more pixel real estate. And Sony would have been stupid to alienate all those customers, which numbered in the thousands, who had made a significant investment in 2/3" lenses, by boldly going where no man had gone before. Even the Dalsa was created as a specialty camera to shoot plates. It took someone like Jim, with his vision, belief, enthusiasm and pockets deep enough to snag a small but brilliant team and to get whatever hardware and infrastructure needed built to take such a gamble on a product which nobody really needed, or knew they needed. And in hindsight, the gamble could have well backfired. Look at where the Dalsa went, or keep in mind that there are still more features being shot of 2/3" cameras than on Genesis, F35s or D21s, and not just because of costs. But thank God Jim was right, or is that a redundancy?

 

[David Rasberry]

Amazing that a semi-retired sunglasses maker was able to do it from scratch, with a tiny team and no experience, in a short period of time. Seems unlikely to me that Sony and Panasonic could not have done it.

Not that short a time. The initial exploration to see if something like the R1 was technically possible began nearly 10 years ago.

 

[Rick Burnett]

I don't think people realize how fast the CMOS world changes, five years ago I was just starting to see more 90nm designs I believe, and now I am doing 35nm designs. Also, at each smaller node, the challenges to design become MUCH different. This DEFINITELY applies to analog as well as digital. Sure fab processes get better with time, but then you go and shrink everything and introduce a whole new set of problems.

I remember when I did .5um design, man, was that stuff easy in comparison!

Given the DR increase of the native EPIC (without the HDRx stuff) I am REALLY impressed. Given the DR of the Red One sensor and the length of time that has passed. Pure brilliance.

 

[C. Jagan Mohan]

If a real big company making pure 1080p camera and selling with 250% margin and making a profit in one year what RED made in last 3 years you call them a incompetent? Thats not a business sence. Big Companies do not run business with passion, an individuals do that some time.

Even as a large Company if they start entering into new space they will always start where volumes are there. Thats reason Panny is targetting Scarlet market space not EPIC.

 

[Alex G. Cohn]

The list price of the AG-AF100 has been confirmed as $4,995 US: http://twitter.com/JanCrittenden/status/25117867556

 

[Leo Ticheli]

It's absurd to imagine this camera competing with the Alexa, however I would be very surprised if it does not become the de facto choice for a huge range of jobs. I'm talking major market share.

Virtually all the convenience of modern 2/3" cameras, things like the filter wheel, plus the 35MM-like DOF at a consumer level price. Really, there's not so much one would add to the package, as it comes with the LCD & EVF.

The big question is what this does to the likes of the Canon 5DMkII, a very awkward approach to shallow DOF at low cost motion picture camera. Only the 5D's small footprint makes it more useful in tight mounting situations.

Can a fixed-lens or 2//3" Scarlet put up a good fight against the 100? Will Canon respond on a timely basis? Is Nikon asleep? What about Sony?

We'll see.

Good shooting and best regards,

Leo

 

[Chris Pickle]

This camera could be a huge seller. It really is everything that the indie folks need (except maybe a more robust codec) It is the fantasy of every DVX / HVX user. While Red is clearly much more advanced, remember that they built a massive amount of their following from the HVX-minded indie crowd. The S35 Scarlet will trounce it, but who knows when that will be released. I bet not for another year at least. Seems like the Epic and 2/3 Scarlet are first in line. If there was a reasonable work-around for the codec, it would cover most indie needs. IMO

 

[Noah Kadner]

Price is definitely right- glad they went lower. Should sell like Japanese hotcakes.

Noah