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RED - DSLRs and where the market is heading.

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Piotr Ryczko

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Hi Folks,

As this post might spark some discussion(and I hope it will), I would first off like to apologise for the lack of an official name in my nick(Ive tried to get one but have not received any help with that yet)

I felt that I needed for the first time to write on this forum. I am a director and also the manager of one of the more successful pure(up till very recently) RED rental and postproduction houses in Poland. We have started our business on the RED and have done over a hundred projects on our RED cameras and Cooke S4s/S3s..

So with this in mind I am writing to RED and everybody who loves RED with a wake up call. Maybe a lot of you think this wake up is not needed at all.. I hope sincerely you are right.. Still if somebody thinks that the DSLR revolution IS right now happening is wrong.. It already HAS happened!

In the course of 2-3 years the market has flipped on its head going from 35mm to RED and now to DSLRS.

My post is not concerned about any quality comparison of RED vs. DSLRs.. believe me I know it from the back of my head (we are doing grading from canons and reds all the time).. What I am talking about is where the general market is heading.

General consensus in Poland is, DONT BUY a CAMERA now. and I think epecially investing in an expensive system like EPIC is not the right time.
there are rumors about Nikon D4s (which might be altogether false) with 2K RAW recording.. There are rumors of 5D MK3 with HDSDI out. well all this
might be fake but can RED afford this to be fake? Every month that Scarlet is not getting to the market, means more world domination for DSLRs.

And will anybody care if Scarlet has 3K when Nikon and Canon will have 2k
and maybe even RAW?
I really dont think so.. most of the market thinks that 1080p .h264 is more than good enough for them..

I see it first hand, lots of my clients are on a daily basis asking for Canons. These are the same clients who were yesterday asking for our REDs.. We
have already two fully equipped 7D systems in the works with grip/monitors and PL/BNCR mounts..

Please RED, do not take this as a critique but a plea from someone who
has started a very succesful business around Your system and would like to stay loyal to you, someone who is begging you to react to what is happening now.. And mainly react FASTER!!

One can only theorise how the market would have been if RED had dropped Scarlets on us half a year ago.. That opportunity is lost now..

Otherwise from my point of view, RED will be fullfilling a niche market segment in the future.

Canons and Nikons may have no idea what film is about but the sheer R&D power of sensordesign, they have from the volume of DSLRS they can output to the market, is a huge upperhand on RED. If they change only two things, compression and add professional outputs, I know what the market will choose..

So the window of opportunity for RED, imho, is closing rapidly now..

From my point of view there area few ways to do this. RED could surprise everybody. What about releasing Scarlet FF Monstro tomorrow and at an even more agressive pricing right in line with 5d?!! Coupled with great distribution channels and the market might swing back again..

Well, I know nothing about camera design and I know nothing about the sheer challenge of designing a system like the DSMC. I can only imagine and admire the RED folks for what they have achieved so far.. Still it would be a great pity if all this work would be wasted if the system is DOA.

I can only speak about what is happening now.. And hope that the greatest digital camera system(DSMC) will hava a future which will not only be fulfilling the few but also the students and low budget film makers in great numbers(the same people who will be choosing what is the industry standard in 5-10 years time)

So RED, what will you do now?

Piotr Ryczko
Kreativa
 
I don't quite share the pessimism. I think the Scarlet and EPIC releases will be meet with much celebration. Albeit, for some a test of patience, the RED program and product line will offer exceptional cost/performance. We've labored thru 2008-09. EPIC's are peeking out. Cant be much further now.

But to your point of the upcoming crop of young decision makers, it will be important to not to ignore their perceptions of what they consider an effective tool, future art directors, ad campaign engineers who won't be afraid to speak up or challenge the status quo.

But for now let's hold the line, and wish the EPIC and Scarlets into the market place and let the hammer of commerce decides who wins and loses.
 
What killerbees?

Sooo many gets burned on the DSLRs when they start to use them not for what they are, but as camerasystems.

But, of course, that will improve.

Eventually, though - they have their applications, but compared to an Alexa, an SI or a RED, they're quite limited - even when one doesn't go into the image quality, jello, codec, sync, audio and workflow discussions...

If it wasn't for RED, I'd probably have bought one myself... -:)
 
Personally, I like that up till now, RED has chosen to be a pro camera company, and not prosumer company.

Anything with a PL mount on the front of it puts it into a category way outside of something that will sell at bestbuy.

As someone who has invested in EPIC already, I hope that people will turn to RED when they want the best, not just the cheapest/most available.

Anyone that thinks that H264 is plenty, should stay away from RED, it's not the right camera for them. Why deal with the headaches of RAW, if a non broadcast quality acquisition codec is sufficient?

I understand that Scarlet is an entirely different market, meant to compete against Canon and Nikon, but personally I think that battle isn't worth waging. Those guys will do what RED can't do which is stop at "good enough", and so will always have an edge if price is peoples primary consideration.

It's ok if Scarlet sits out of range of "soccer mom" territory, it will be the lusted after low budget film maker camera, and the EPIC will sit as the "if price is not a primary factor film maker camera". That's where RED belongs, making art.

(Just my 2 cents...I love my friggin' cameras)
 
mp4 (which h.264 is part of) is used for broadcast aquisition all the time... Not to be a nitpick, but still... Ever heard about AVC-I from the high-end Panny-cams?

And 5D's are being used in broadcast environments all the time. With very diverting results, but they are trying to find ways to use these tools.

1D's have been used as the only cam for a 6 month series here in Norway this year, but where I see the 5D really excell, is for all the non-drama/non-news programs where they've had to use EX1s and hvx 170's but the photographers want some controll over DOF on a budget.

For films and drama, they will still be more of a jippo "it's possible" than really a usefull tool.

I think for RED/Epic, Alexa is a more importat contestant than the 5D...
 
Really? People work natively in h264 and broadcast/master to it? Where I work we've always found it to be a great codec for posting to web but never sufficient for grading, or archiving our masters to. Oh well maybe I spoke to soon I guess it is good enough, just not for us. :)
 
Gunleik Groven said:
mp4 (which h.264 is part of) is used for broadcast aquisition all the time... Not to be a nitpick, but still... Ever heard about AVC-I from the high-end Panny-cams?
Click to expand...

I don't want to presume too much, but it seems like you are saying the H.264 in the current generation of DSLRS is, in some way, comprable to AVC-Intra in high end Panasonic cameras and other MPEG-4 formats used for broadcast acquisition.

If that's true, I really have to disagree. Yes, H.264 is MPEG-4. And yes, H.264 is AVC. But the implementation of H.264 used in DSLRs right now pales in comparison to AVC-I in a number of ways. This has been known for quite some time and, really, it's just a fact. The H.264 in DSLRs is pretty terrible.

Then again, I feel that it is misleading to say a Yugo is like a Lamborghini on the simple premise that both are cars.


RED is offering a cohesive video camera to a professional market. This means their cameras are ready to remove from the box, assemble, and land on set. Canon isn't doing that yet. There is a great deal of additional aftermarket equipment and jury rigging required to make the DSLR into a professional video camera. I know - I own one. I feel that RED will be the strong choice of professionals and more wealthy independents for A-cam work. Prosumer and less wealthy independent, B-cam (and special unit) may stick with DSLRS.
 
No offense, but this just is not gonna happen. DSLR's while good at stills, still suck at video. We have all seen it. If your renters are looking for DSLR's for their projects, perhaps your market doesn't need PRO all the time. I am in a market that has a lot of projects that just cannot afford to shoot red. Thats okay, I get a little irritated by it, but i know the bigger projects will want it, and they do. Scarlet may be more expensive, but it will also be the only one that takes great looking video. no camera will ever be everyones cup of tea. i will die before i use a 5d or 7d or any other prosumer camera over my red when the option is mine to make. If i am going to take stills though, thats a different matter altogether, though not once i have an epic in my hands :)
 
it looks like RED is moving towards the pro market in a big way ..they have made a number of moves to integrate themselves with Hollywood


EPIC is really aiming to be hollywood


the acquisition on Ren Mar

the RED mansion

POTC4 ...

etc...

Red One was a great learning tool and launching pad ..EPIC will be the celebrity camera to be seen with


IMHO
 
To be clear.

h.264 is the web delivery sibling in the mp4 standard and I am not a big fan of the images or the workflow.

But it's silly to ignore the OPs point:

The cameras are used. And like RED was/is an affordble way to get very good images, the DSLR's offer some of the same image carracterristica, and there are quite a few who are ready to go for it.

And I think Jim had another good look into the crystal-bowl and decided that the compact modular design was the way to go for Epic, much because of this. And thus left the ARRI/Filmcam design (that was never a part of REDs design scheme as far as I can remember...)

Because people will continue to use a cam like they can with the DSLRs/SI-mini, but there is a need for high quality images, which the Epic will offer.
 
MP4 is a container, H.264 is a standard, DSLRs use a specific codec based on the H.264 standards which just isn't very good. X264 - especially the HQ settings - is a quite spectacular codec based on the H.264 standard, but of course, it's suitable for delivery rather than capture.

As for the OP, digital cinema is moving exponentially. I wish Nikon D4s or 5D Mk III would do 2K RAW, but that is just wishful thinking.

Don't buy a camera now is rather poor advise. Don't buy an Epic now - wait for the D4s. When the D4s is here, wait for the Epic Monstro. Then wait for the Alexa II. Keep waiting your entire life. A silly approach, indeed.

Having said that, if something concrete is around the corner, only then does waiting makes sense. E.g. Waiting for an Epic rather than buy a One now. D4s and whatnot are just rumours. What man with common sense (let alone professionals) bases their decision on rumours?

As for 1080p H264 being "good enough". If the makers of the film think so, having considered everything, all power to them.

RED don't have a product planned in the $1k-$2k market. That is about as much a student would like to spend. The T2is and 7Ds will continue to sell. Clearly, Scarlet is not part of this market.
 
We're doing a Stage 2 Epic upgrade, and I do lose a bit of sleep sometimes over the fact that Canon or Nikon could announce something with raw recording (and no line skipping) tomorrow.

But at the same time... this market (with the exception of the no-budget indies) is extremely conservative. We're seeing a few very low budget music videos move to the 5D that might otherwise have been shot on the Red, but for commercials and indie features the DSLRs just aren't quite there yet, and even once they are it will take producers a couple of years to get comfortable with them. That's more than enough time for anyone with even a very moderate rental business to turn a nice profit on an Epic investment.

And of course a fair bit of interest in DSLRs hasn't been about price, but about low-light performance and compact size. MX has has taken care of the former and Epic will take care of the latter.
 
Chris Kenny said:
We're doing a Stage 2 Epic upgrade, and I do lose a bit of sleep sometimes over the fact that Canon or Nikon could announce something with raw recording (and no line skipping) tomorrow.
Click to expand...

I'm sure all the makers of real digital cinema cameras (Red, Arri, Dalsa, Silicon Imaging, Vision Research, etc.) can tell you that getting a single sensor camera to run at those high frame rates without overheating and then either recording the full sensor in RAW or converting it in-camera from RAW to RGB without resorting to decimating the data coming off the sensor... well, it's a lot harder than it looks. I think for a Canon to really do what it should, which is allow RAW recording, or a full in-camera debayer of the full sensor to RGB, requires a lot of processing horsepower, and by the time Canon is finished upgrading the DSLR to handle that, the prices may not seem much different than what Red's products will be selling for.
 
David Mullen ASC said:
I'm sure all the makers of real digital cinema cameras (Red, Arri, Dalsa, Silicon Imaging, Vision Research, etc.) can tell you that getting a single sensor camera to run at those high frame rates without overheating and then either recording the full sensor in RAW or converting it in-camera from RAW to RGB without resorting to decimating the data coming off the sensor... well, it's a lot harder than it looks. I think for a Canon to really do what it should, which is allow RAW recording, or a full in-camera debayer of the full sensor to RGB, requires a lot of processing horsepower, and by the time Canon is finished upgrading the DSLR to handle that, the prices may not seem much different than what Red's products will be selling for.
Click to expand...

Fully matching feature sets, I doubt Canon could be much cheaper. Red tends to price things pretty aggressively, after all.

The danger would be if Canon hit on the right combination of features/pricing to kill the bottom 30% of the rental market. I mean, remember, the Epic's capabilities are almost ludicrously high-end -- to the point where even Arri doesn't seem to think it's necessary to match it for resolution and frame rates. Not everyone needs that feature set.
 
Have a look at the power consumption of a Canon vs. R1, it tells you how much of a technological jump it would be to get there. I'm sure RED doesn't waste one Watt…
 
David Mullen ASC said:
I'm sure all the makers of real digital cinema cameras (Red, Arri, Dalsa, Silicon Imaging, Vision Research, etc.) can tell you that getting a single sensor camera to run at those high frame rates without overheating and then either recording the full sensor in RAW or converting it in-camera from RAW to RGB without resorting to decimating the data coming off the sensor... well, it's a lot harder than it looks. I think for a Canon to really do what it should, which is allow RAW recording, or a full in-camera debayer of the full sensor to RGB, requires a lot of processing horsepower, and by the time Canon is finished upgrading the DSLR to handle that, the prices may not seem much different than what Red's products will be selling for.
Click to expand...

Epic/Scarlet is the 3rd 4k+ camera I've worked on including the the dalsa origin and what you're saying is completely true. Increasing framerates from 10 fps to 30fps to 60fps to 120fps is a huge undertaking each time.

How sensors respond changes, the memory bandwidth, system bandwidth, power, cooling, storage speed, algorithms to deal with the faster sensor architectures, and the costs related to each.
 
Subhadip Sen said:
MP4 is a container, H.264 is a standard, DSLRs use a specific codec based on the H.264 standards which just isn't very good. X264 - especially the HQ settings - is a quite spectacular codec based on the H.264 standard, but of course, it's suitable for delivery rather than capture.

As for the OP, digital cinema is moving exponentially. I wish Nikon D4s or 5D Mk III would do 2K RAW, but that is just wishful thinking.

Don't buy a camera now is rather poor advise. Don't buy an Epic now - wait for the D4s. When the D4s is here, wait for the Epic Monstro. Then wait for the Alexa II. Keep waiting your entire life. A silly approach, indeed.

Having said that, if something concrete is around the corner, only then does waiting makes sense. E.g. Waiting for an Epic rather than buy a One now. D4s and whatnot are just rumours. What man with common sense (let alone professionals) bases their decision on rumours?

As for 1080p H264 being "good enough". If the makers of the film think so, having considered everything, all power to them.

RED don't have a product planned in the $1k-$2k market. That is about as much a student would like to spend. The T2is and 7Ds will continue to sell. Clearly, Scarlet is not part of this market.
Click to expand...

The funny thing about students these days they want to learn with little cameras pro sumer cameras.

Film schools especially universities should have the most expensive and advanced equipment, or else the current wave of half baked poorly digested aesthetic film skills will ruin the art form.

A student trained on an HVX200 can't even compare themselves to one trained on an Aaton LTR or Xtr, An Arri II, etc.
 
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