Will the new BlackMagic Camera affect 4K sales.

[RayFrisby]

Ok I know we are not meant to discuss other cameras on the forum.
But I believe it is valid to ask if the new BM Camera will affect 4K Camera sales ?
Even though it's not 4K, it is a Digital Film camera and must have some
impact on the market ?

The BM camera comes to market for under 3K with 2.5K resolution and both Raw and industry standard recording options.
Will this camera ultimately affect Red, Canon and Sony sales in their respective markets ?
Even thought the quality, features, frame rates, etc... may not be a patch on the Red Scarlet it's gotta affect sales !

If so; given the current economic climate will a vast number of
people choose price above features and performance (in a certain market segment say 3-10K cameras) and opt for a
S16 camera with Raw and industry standard recording options with interchangeable lens (even though choices are limited)
Simply because it's 3K ?

This may seem obvious but if the answer is yes then the next question is a difficult one;

Is the Digital Cinema market large enough to sustain all these competing cameras ? and will something have to give ?

If the image quality of this new camera turns out to be of a certain quality, and is equal to or surpasses current DSLR's
then I believe it will be a huge hit simply because the price is right, and it has a variety of recording options and lens available.
(Although limited at launch rumors are BM is looking at different mounts and options)

If Blackmagic stays true to form they will produce a Digital Camera that evolves on a yearly basis. They may not provide
or enable all features customers want out of the box, but they will produce an affordable camera day one.
Even though features may be limited the price will be right for those looking at upgrading from DSLR's (or those saving for a Sony or Red )
and these people will probably invest in a lower priced camera to start with and build their equipment or save towards the camera they really want later.
Some may be able to afford both but for the majority it will be either one or the other.

The offshoot must be lower sales of these other cameras (at least until the economy recovers) or those people who wanted to get into Digital Film / Media progress
to a different camera or start to earn money from their investment.

At 3K the Blackmagic Camera is possibly the minimum investment somebody interested in Digital Cinema / Broadcast or Corporate work can expect to spend,
Add another 1K (min) 2K (realistic) for a cheap EF Lens, SSD plus accessories.. and their ready to start making their masterpiece and possibly earning some money.

So my question is has the introduction of this camera at this price point and feature set changed the game again ?
And if so; given this (3-10K) market is extremely competitive will it affect sales of Canon, Sony and Red cameras ?

EDIT:
Seeing that Jim and the Red team have done so much to develop a 3-5K (dollar) camera i.e. the 2/3 Scarlet
Is it crazy to think they may resurrect a lower priced version of the Scarlet with an optional Pro Res/ DNxHD Recording option ?
It may make sense if the figures add up and they can get it to market soon !!!!

[Bob Gundu]

Soon there will be a camera for everyone. Everyone wins. It's the Chinese fellows that are making the RAW camera that will be in trouble with sales. Actually Ikonoscope will also face challenges. RED have nothing to worry about.

[Gunleik Groven]

It's basically the scarlet I wished for as a sidekick to the Epic less the optics (which I cared for) and the high fps (which wasm't crucial to me)... That is given that it does perform.

Light, compact, RAW + good codec.

If anything makes any sense - which it may well not - this is basically bad for Canon and Sony, not RED...

looking foreward to check the DNG format.

[Björn Benckert]

Soon there will be a camera for everyone. Everyone wins. It's the Chinese fellows that are making the RAW camera that will be in trouble with sales. Actually Ikonoscope will also face challenges. RED have nothing to worry about.

The amount of cameras will increase, so will the quality level of the top preforming cameras. Thats known to Mr Jannard and the others I think, they did R1 then before even most people got to understand what that actually was they got the roadmap for Epic, the FF and so on.. So the race will not stop any time soon I think

[Scott Crawley]

Just to echo Bob and Gunliek:

1. If it sucks all bets are off .

2. Red has no camera anywhere near that price point, so it isn't going to effect their sales much if at all.

[RayFrisby]

EDIT:
Seeing that Jim and the Red team have done so much to develop a 3-5K (dollar) camera i.e. the 2/3 Scarlet,
Is it crazy to think they may resurrect a lower priced version of the Scarlet with an optional Pro Res / DNxHD Recording option ?
It may make sense if the figures add up and they can get it to market soon !!!!

Just thinking outloud !

[Ron Lagerlof]

As a BMD reseller, and a RED owner/shooter, I think it is safe to say that RDC has nothing to worry about, except for maybe at the very low end where some might not be able to get in. IMHO, the BMD camera takes a direct bead on the DSLR group. They don't have a RAW workflow when it comes to motion with the exception of the Nikon D4 that will output uncompressed video directly out of the HDMI port as long as you don't have any CF cards installed. Hence, you're tethered to another box and you've got an HDMI cable between the camera and your media... The BMD camera is also stuck at standard frame rates, also like DSLRs. And, I would challenge it's ability to output a clean still from motion. However, all that said, I may buy a demo one for my kid and see what he can do with it. (He doesn't get Dad's REDs... not yet, anyway)

[Jason DeSimone]

IMO the current camera released by BMD will not effect the professional market all that much (4K or 2K). The reality is despite the great sepcs for the price point etc its a 4/3 camera and I would not expect it to be a go to in any way for the professional market. If you look at the design of the camera as well as the way it's being marketed this is clearly a product that is geared toward bringing cinema quality to more personal applications. That being said, I also feel that this camera is an entry level product for BMD in the camera market and should it be received well (which I have a feeling it will be) we can expect to see a more professional full frame camera at NAB next year. Of course this just an opinion, but it makes a lot of sense to me.

[Scott Crawley]

Before the 5D saw repeated action on television and professional film sets I would have agreed with you, but no longer. FWIW

The BMD camera could go anywhere. EDIT: But that doesn't mean it will impact sales at the $15k plus level.

IMO the current camera released by BMD will not effect the professional market all that much (4K or 2K). The reality is despite the great sepcs for the price point etc its a 4/3 camera and I would not expect it to be a go to in any way for the professional market. If you look at the design of the camera as well as the way it's being marketed this is clearly a product that is geared toward bringing cinema quality to more personal applications. That being said, I also feel that this camera is an entry level product for BMD in the camera market and should it be received well (which I have a feeling it will be) we can expect to see a more professional full frame camera at NAB next year. Of course this just an opinion, but it makes a lot of sense to me.

[Richard Goodwin]

Let's say "will it affect 4K sales? And, I think that really means 4K RAW. Because when RED talks about 4K acquisition and display they really are implying RAW capture and post workflow.

Based on that I think Blacmkagic can only help 4K RAW. Their camera fills a huge gap with 2.5K RAW capture to (off the shelf) SSD. It's clearly targeted toward indie filmmakers, art, documentary, and smaller budget creatives. Their choice of having an EF mount (not PL) and most of the necessaries built in show that. What that will do is energize a HUGE range of creative people from the most experimental independents to upstart commercial houses to be acquiring digital motion with good dynamic range and feed that into a RAW workflow. Once that starts becoming the new "norm" it's going to be hard to go back to HD capture. And, the enticement to step up to 4K is going to be even bigger after experiencing good DR at 2.5 K. At the same time the price for purchase or rental of 4K gear will only come down over time (RED releasing lower cost media is just one sign).

So I think you can call a camera like the Blackmagic a "gateway camera". It serves as a taste of the real possibilities of digital in terms of cost and quality. It may not be perfect. But, they made design choices to keep it at a very attractive price point. Based on interest and buzz, and the pure specs of the camera if it delivers what it claims to it will be a huge seller and become a new standard the same way the 5D Mark II.

That being said some 4K makers will fare better than others. From my point of view this is a shot across the bow of Canon (if not a missile directed at them). Their new line seems confused and they have an expensive 4K solution on one end and a middling HD solution at the other. Specifically the Mark III could really be hurt by this. More broadly any potential influence on the Post Industry Canon had by introducing a RAW codec on their high end cams is hurt too. (Why they did not have one new codec on all their cams is a mystery to me - or just adopt prorez/DNxHD etc). The BlackMagic on the other hand outputs footage that plugs directly into standard post tools and workflows. That is really the second exciting part. Unlike the 5D you don't need to transcode etc to get working.

In general when you look at disruptive technologies in emerging markets bold leaders often help the competition by building excitement and growing the Market. RED is an example of that. They broke price, technology, and quality barriers for 4K raw. The Arri Alexa was helped by RED getting major players comfortable and trusting of digital cinema. A second example would be Roku and appleTV. AppleTV actually helped Roku; not hurt. Why? because it helped build the idea and market for an internet only streaming set top box that could entertain you but be outside the Cable TV ecosystem.

In the same way the BlackMagic camera is disrupting the market while taking expectations to a higher level. That can only make people more hungry for high quality digital cinema.