Thread: Thoughts about the short and medium term future of crypto

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  1. #1 Thoughts about the short and medium term future of crypto 
    Senior Member Karim D. Ghantous's Avatar
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    Some of you probably hold some amount of crypto, even if you just threw $50 at an altcoin just for fun. I have put a lot of my modest (but not scanty) savings into crypto over the past 2-3 years. It probably won't make me rich but it will make a big difference in my life, where I could probably buy a new car (see below) if I wanted. Add to that a few other useful things like cameras and lenses, and maybe the odd plane ticket. And, if I meet a nice girl by then, we won't be drinking the $5 wines from Aldi (as good as they are). ;-)

    So here is the landscape as I understand it by listening to people who know better:

    - The flash crash in March was a perfect opportunity to accumulate, and I wish I had the money to do so, and BTC dipped to $4,000

    - Some say that DOGE is an indicator of a strong bull market, and it is now up 10%

    - XRP is fast approaching $1 and could surpass its all-time high in several months

    - BTC surpassed expectations a little by hitting $23,000

    - LBC, the coin for the decentralised video platform LBRY, is up 500% for the year

    - ADA is now about 16 cents, expect 50 cents in a couple of months

    - LINK is approaching $20 again and could hit that level early in the new year

    - DOT is now about $5.50 but interest is gaining on this project, and we could see $100 in 12 months

    - THETA, now about 80 cents, is up over 600% for the year - Theta TV is a live streaming platform which some of you may have heard of

    - Some 'cheaper' coins might surprise us, like VET, DGB, ZIL and RSR

    I have put off buying some new lenses and cameras this year. If I had a vacation planned I would have cancelled it outright and put that money into crypto. I thankfully was wise enough to not sink too much money into cars, which I love. I almost bought a cheap Ferrari 400i many years ago, when I had $20,000 in cash saved. I am so glad I didn't. It would have emptied my account and I wouldn't have been able to restore it for ages.

    So, how much confidence do I have in crypto? Well, I'm not giving anyone financial advice. But if I won the lottery tomorrow I would put 95% of it in to crypto. Maybe more. I'm "all in", so to speak. I am not interested in shares, metals, bonds or real estate. I just don't care about that stuff. IMHO, crypto is going to grow much more than these other asset classes, because we're still in the nascent stages of a brand new asset class that has not yet reached mass adoption. How many households had computers in 1985? 1995? 2005? 2015? Think of it like that.

    If you have holdings in crypto, let me know your thoughts. What are you expectations for BTC in 12 months? And the market in general?

    Oh, and if you want to know what car I might be buying in a year or two:

    https://www.motorauthority.com/news/...-jeep-wrangler

    I'm not buying one ready-made. The plan is to buy the car, recondition the drivetrain, then get it painted. I'll add my own personal touches as well, if I need to.
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  2. #2  
    Senior Member Michael Hastings's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Karim D. Ghantous View Post
    snip:
    I am not interested in shares, metals, bonds or real estate. I just don't care about that stuff. IMHO, crypto is going to grow much more than these other asset classes, because we're still in the nascent stages of a brand new asset class that has not yet reached mass adoption.
    Thing to remember is that there is nothing underlying crypto or any other currency that would make them inherently worth more in the future. Inflation, or more realistically debasement of the currency, is what underlies the increasing value of gold, real estate, and to some extent stocks. At least with stocks there can be growth and innovation that can add real value.

    With crypto if you are hoping for large investment gains you are relying primarily on the "tulip mania" aspect, and to a lesser extent the scarcity aspect of a currency that is completely mined out yet becomes a major currency for trade. Blockchain tech will definitely have value in a lot of areas. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the currency arena.
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  3. #3  
    Senior Member Jacek Zakowicz's Avatar
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    Yes just consider the possibility of the great reset coming any time. What is the value of the crypto based on? It can vanish into the thin air at any time.... many vapor produts and companies have and are every day....
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  4. #4  
    Senior Member Karim D. Ghantous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hastings View Post
    Blockchain tech will definitely have value in a lot of areas. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the currency arena.
    Absolutely. Blockchains are not the solution to every single problem. But at the same time, we're not going backwards.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jacek Zakowicz View Post
    What is the value of the crypto based on? It can vanish into the thin air at any time.... many vapor produts and companies have and are every day....
    There is lots to say and I don't really know where to start! Look at just Bitcoin. Its value comes from its utility, its scarcity, its portability, its divisibility, its fungibility, its security and its reliability.

    It's the most secure network on Earth. It has existed for over ten years now. It can be attacked, theoretically. Some blockchains which fall out of favour with the public do get attacked. But you can't hack the Bitcoin network - you can't steal someone else's Bitcoin except by obtaining their private key.

    The market caps of Bitcoin and gold will eventually flip. But not for maybe a decade.

    It's worth me saying that I am in no position to guarantee anything to anyone. I dare not guarantee even death or taxes or sunrises. I just point out possibilities and probabilities. I've learned to have that humility long ago. I believe that God absolutely exists. But even if I guaranteed it, would you change your mind if you didn't already believe? No, you won't. You have to figure it out for yourself. ;-)

    Here are some items of interest:

    Salvos accept Bitcoin & Ether:
    https://www.coindesk.com/salvation-a...onations-in-us

    Microstrategy now holds over 40,000 BTC:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-above-19-400

    Grayscale owns over half a million BTC; :
    https://twitter.com/KyrosVentures/st...63149475147777
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  5. #5  
    Senior Member Adrian Jebef's Avatar
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    Well I threw in a few bucks to grab some BTC awhile ago. Small potatoes. I was hoping it would grow enough at some point that I could buy a new surfboard or two. Now I could buy alotta new surfboards. Of course I don't want new surfboards anymore I want more BTC.
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  6. #6  
    Senior Member Jacek Zakowicz's Avatar
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    IMO the crypto currency was created to allow for a complete financial reset with a push of a button. The Bank of China launch of crypto currency recently seems to me to confirm that.
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  7. #7  
    Senior Member Jacek Zakowicz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adrian Jebef View Post
    Well I threw in a few bucks to grab some BTC awhile ago. Small potatoes. I was hoping it would grow enough at some point that I could buy a new surfboard or two. Now I could buy alotta new surfboards. Of course I don't want new surfboards anymore I want more BTC.
    And this is exactly where BTC wants you...;-)
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  8. #8  
    Senior Member Karim D. Ghantous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adrian Jebef View Post
    Well I threw in a few bucks to grab some BTC awhile ago. Small potatoes. I was hoping it would grow enough at some point that I could buy a new surfboard or two. Now I could buy alotta new surfboards. Of course I don't want new surfboards anymore I want more BTC.
    Thaaaaaat's the spirit! ;-)

    Quote Originally Posted by Jacek Zakowicz View Post
    IMO the crypto currency was created to allow for a complete financial reset with a push of a button. The Bank of China launch of crypto currency recently seems to me to confirm that.
    Maybe. I have to plead ignorance here.
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  9. #9  
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    Love that $5 ALDI wine
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  10. #10  
    Senior Member Karim D. Ghantous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Luke View Post
    Love that $5 ALDI wine
    Same. ;-) It means I don't have to buy cask wine. But I'd like to be able to drink something a bit crisper.
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